The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Al-Kholood v Al-Shabab

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 15:55 UTC

Final: Al-Kholood 2–1 Al-Shabab

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Kholood (Local)

Prediction 29.10%3.44fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -0.835%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.46%29.27%29.21%31.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.023.003.3437.04%33.17%33.33%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Shabab (Visit)

Prediction 45.23%2.21fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.642%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.50%45.07%45.21%46.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.062.052.1852.36%48.60%48.78%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.67%3.90fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.581%
Kelly -0.788%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.90%25.66%25.58%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.463.423.8131.25%28.90%29.20%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Kholood (Local): 29.10%; Al-Shabab (Visit): 45.23%; Draw: 25.67%. For Al-Shabab (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.18, with an expected value of -1.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.46%EV -2.79%E -0.835%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.92%EV -6.38%E -3.08%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.62%EV -4.78%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-09 15:40
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -3.95%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -7.28%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -5.41%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.28%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 15:41
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -5.41%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.28%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-09 15:50
1xBet🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 30.04%EV -5.99%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.50%EV -1.40%E -0.642%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.46%EV -2.21%E -0.581%K -0.788%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-09 15:45
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -9.54%E -4.77%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 15:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.59%EV -9.54%E -4.77%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.47%EV -8.12%E -2.27%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 15:35
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.28%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 15:41
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.54%E -4.77%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 15:50
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -11.80%E -6.05%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -11.80%E -6.05%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -7.60%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 15:45
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -11.80%E -6.05%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -11.23%E -3.68%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.15%EV -10.45%E -5.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.54%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 15:50
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -12.69%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.54%E -4.77%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -15.30%E -4.64%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-09 15:36
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -12.69%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.54%E -4.77%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -15.30%E -4.64%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-09 15:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -12.69%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.54%E -4.77%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -15.30%E -4.64%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-09 15:36
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -12.69%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.54%E -4.77%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -15.30%E -4.64%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-09 15:41
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -12.69%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.25%EV -10.45%E -5.28%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -15.30%E -4.64%K -6.65%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-09 15:50
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -12.69%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.82%EV -13.61%E -7.13%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.01%EV -10.17%E -2.91%K -4.07%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-09 15:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -14.14%E -4.79%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -5.02%E -2.39%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -5.04%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 15:41
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -16.18%E -5.62%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -1.40%E -0.642%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -14.02%E -4.18%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 15:41
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -16.18%E -5.62%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -1.40%E -0.642%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -14.02%E -4.18%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 15:41
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -16.18%E -5.62%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -1.40%E -0.642%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -14.02%E -4.18%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 15:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -16.18%E -5.62%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -1.40%E -0.642%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -14.02%E -4.18%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 15:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -16.18%E -5.62%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -1.40%E -0.642%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -14.02%E -4.18%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 15:41
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -16.18%E -5.62%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -1.40%E -0.642%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -14.02%E -4.18%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 15:41
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -18.51%E -6.61%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.67%EV -4.11%E -1.94%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -15.30%E -4.64%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 15:41
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.69%EV -19.96%E -7.26%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.50%EV -5.02%E -2.39%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.81%EV -16.59%E -5.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-09 15:41
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.69%EV -19.96%E -7.26%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.50%EV -5.02%E -2.39%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.81%EV -16.59%E -5.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-09 15:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.70%EV -21.42%E -7.93%K -12.60%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 41.55%EV -6.83%E -3.31%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.75%EV -17.87%E -5.58%K -8.12%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-09 15:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.81%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.02%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%0.6%2026-09-09 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.81%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.02%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%0.6%2026-09-09 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.81%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.02%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%0.6%2026-09-09 15:50
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.83%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-09-09 15:50
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.73%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-09-09 15:41