The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Khaleej v Al-Nassr

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Khaleej 1–1 Al-Nassr

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Khaleej (Local)

Prediction 11.19%8.94fair odd
EV +12.99%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.185%

assuming max odds 10.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.19%11.08%11.13%12.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.258.408.5010.1013.79%11.91%11.76%9.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Nassr (Visit)

Prediction 71.37%1.40fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -3.82%
Kelly -15.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.45%71.64%71.32%73.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.261.261.3384.03%79.15%79.37%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.44%5.73fair odd
EV +4.47%
Edge +0.747%
Kelly +0.896%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 5.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.78%17.28%17.55%18.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.955.225.225.9920.20%19.17%19.14%16.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Khaleej (Local): 11.19%; Al-Nassr (Visit): 71.37%; Draw: 17.44%. For Al-Khaleej (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.94. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯10.10I 9.90%NM 9.50%EV +12.99%E +1.29%K +1.43%G +0.185%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.67%EV -5.79%E -4.39%K -18.09%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.83%EV -6.17%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 17:56
Tipico (DE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV +11.87%E +1.19%K +1.32%G +0.157%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.48%EV -10.79%E -8.63%K -43.14%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -7.56%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-12 17:50
Coral🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +0.686%E +0.076%K +0.086%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.96%EV -5.08%E -3.82%K -15.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.40%EV -4.07%E -0.741%K -0.905%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-12 17:55
betfred_uk🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV +0.686%E +0.076%K +0.086%G +0.001%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -7.93%E -6.15%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -12.79%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 17:50
Pinnacle🎯8.63I 11.59%NM 10.95%EV -3.45%E -0.400%K -0.453%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.27%EV -7.93%E -6.15%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.99I 16.69%NM 15.78%EV +4.47%E +0.747%K +0.896%G +0.040%5.8%2026-09-12 17:31
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -5.08%E -3.82%K -15.38%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -8.43%E -1.61%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -7.22%E -5.55%K -24.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -8.43%E -1.61%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-12 17:50
Unibet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.15%EV -10.07%E -7.99%K -38.74%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -7.56%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 17:45
Unibet (NL)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.15%EV -10.07%E -7.99%K -38.74%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -7.56%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 17:45
Unibet (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.15%EV -10.07%E -7.99%K -38.74%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -7.56%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 17:45
Grosvenor🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.15%EV -10.07%E -7.99%K -38.74%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -7.56%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 17:45
ATG (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.15%EV -10.07%E -7.99%K -38.74%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -7.56%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 17:45
Svenska Spel🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.15%EV -10.07%E -7.99%K -38.74%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -7.56%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 17:45
LiveScore Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 72.24%EV -11.50%E -9.27%K -47.91%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.23%EV -9.31%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 17:45
Virgin Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 72.24%EV -11.50%E -9.27%K -47.91%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.23%EV -9.31%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 17:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.48%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 72.40%EV -12.21%E -9.93%K -53.10%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.13%EV -9.31%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 17:45
PMU (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.16%EV -4.91%E -0.577%K -0.654%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 72.57%EV -15.07%E -12.66%K -79.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.27%EV -12.79%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-12 17:45
888sport🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -10.50%E -1.31%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.79%E -8.63%K -43.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -12.79%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 17:25
William Hill🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -10.50%E -1.31%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.79%E -8.63%K -43.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -12.79%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 17:25
888sport (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -10.50%E -1.31%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.79%E -8.63%K -43.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -12.79%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 17:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -10.50%E -1.31%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.79%E -8.63%K -43.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -12.79%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 17:25
Betclic (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.30%EV -13.30%E -1.72%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 71.19%EV -12.21%E -9.93%K -53.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.51%EV -12.79%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-12 17:49
Unibet (FR)🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 11.54%EV -14.98%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 70.74%EV -11.50%E -9.27%K -47.91%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.72%EV -13.67%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-12 17:49
Winamax (DE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -16.10%E -2.15%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.88%EV -7.93%E -6.15%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.93%EV -5.82%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 17:50
BoyleSports🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -16.10%E -2.15%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -10.79%E -8.63%K -43.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -12.79%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-12 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.34%EV -18.89%E -2.61%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.45%EV -9.36%E -7.37%K -34.66%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.21%EV -9.31%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎11.50I 8.70%NM 8.69%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.70%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.61%0.1%2026-09-12 17:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 9.05%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.40%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.55%0.5%2026-09-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 9.05%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.40%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.55%0.5%2026-09-12 17:36
Kalshi◎11.11I 9.00%NM 8.92%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.22%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.86%0.9%2026-09-12 17:56
Smarkets◎11.00I 9.09%NM 9.00%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.02%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.97%1.0%2026-09-12 17:56