The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Khaleej v Al-Ettifaq

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:57 UTC

Final: Al-Khaleej 0–5 Al-Ettifaq

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Khaleej (Local)

Prediction 33.67%2.97fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.816%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.25%33.59%33.79%37.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.592.552.9042.55%38.68%39.22%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ettifaq (Visit)

Prediction 40.95%2.44fair odd
EV +1.55%
Edge +0.626%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.17%40.96%40.85%42.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.312.302.4848.08%43.25%43.48%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.39%3.94fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -0.931%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.35%25.44%25.36%27.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.533.603.8032.26%28.33%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Khaleej (Local): 33.67%; Al-Ettifaq (Visit): 40.95%; Draw: 25.39%. For Al-Ettifaq (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -16.51%E -6.66%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV +1.55%E +0.626%K +1.05%G +0.016%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 15:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -16.51%E -6.66%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV +1.55%E +0.626%K +1.05%G +0.016%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 15:55
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -16.51%E -6.66%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV +1.55%E +0.626%K +1.05%G +0.016%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 15:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -16.51%E -6.66%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV +1.55%E +0.626%K +1.05%G +0.016%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -16.51%E -6.66%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV +1.55%E +0.626%K +1.05%G +0.016%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 15:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -16.51%E -6.66%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV +1.55%E +0.626%K +1.05%G +0.016%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 15:55
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -17.52%E -7.15%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV +0.324%E +0.132%K +0.223%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -9.88%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 15:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -17.52%E -7.15%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV +0.324%E +0.132%K +0.223%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -9.88%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 15:54
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.44%EV -2.37%E -0.816%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.07%EV -0.904%E -0.374%K -0.637%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.49%EV -7.09%E -1.94%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-09 15:54
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -9.10%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -1.72%E -0.718%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.12%EV -19.20%E -8.00%K -13.71%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -2.54%E -1.07%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-09 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.12%EV -19.20%E -8.00%K -13.71%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -2.54%E -1.07%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-09 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -9.10%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.71%EV -2.95%E -1.25%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 15:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -20.88%E -8.89%K -15.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.30%EV -3.77%E -1.60%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.41%EV -12.42%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-09 15:54
Pinnacle🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.73%E -2.05%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00%EV -5.00%E -2.15%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 15:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.10%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 15:54
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.79%E -4.50%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 15:54
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -7.42%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-09 15:55
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -11.79%E -4.50%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -16.23%E -4.92%K -7.06%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-09 15:54
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.86%EV -15.83%E -6.33%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.73%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.41%EV -16.23%E -4.92%K -7.06%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-09 15:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.86%EV -15.83%E -6.33%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.73%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.41%EV -16.23%E -4.92%K -7.06%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-09 15:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.86%EV -15.83%E -6.33%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.73%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.41%EV -16.23%E -4.92%K -7.06%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-09 15:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -5.73%E -2.05%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.91%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -9.10%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -9.91%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 15:54
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -9.10%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -9.91%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 15:54
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -9.10%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -9.91%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 15:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.89%EV -10.78%E -4.07%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.82%EV -9.91%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.30%EV -9.88%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 15:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.06%EV -14.15%E -5.55%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.40%EV -11.96%E -5.56%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -13.69%E -4.03%K -5.70%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-09 15:54
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.18%EV -15.83%E -6.33%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.69%EV -14.01%E -6.67%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.13%EV -13.69%E -4.03%K -5.70%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-09 15:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 32.25%EV -11.46%E -4.36%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.39%EV -14.01%E -6.67%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.36%EV -21.31%E -6.87%K -10.15%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-09 15:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.92%EV -9.10%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.73%EV -14.83%E -7.13%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.35%EV -7.34%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-09 15:53
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.36%1.1%2026-05-09 15:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.36%1.1%2026-05-09 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.36%1.1%2026-05-09 15:55
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.29%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.20%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%2.0%2026-05-09 15:55
Smarkets◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.23%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.40%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.38%2.4%2026-05-09 15:55