The School of Odds
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Al-Ittihad v Al-Kholood

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 18:01 UTC

Final: Al-Ittihad 1–1 Al-Kholood

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ittihad (Local)

Prediction 58.50%1.71fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -3.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.72%58.33%58.41%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.541.541.6769.93%65.03%64.72%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Kholood (Visit)

Prediction 18.35%5.45fair odd
EV +2.20%
Edge +0.395%
Kelly +0.482%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 5.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.22%18.27%18.34%19.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.015.005.5721.74%19.97%20.00%17.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.15%4.32fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -0.660%
Kelly -0.866%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.04%23.39%23.25%24.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.944.004.2027.78%25.40%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ittihad (Local): 58.50%; Al-Kholood (Visit): 18.35%; Draw: 23.15%. For Al-Kholood (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.45. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.12%EV -2.30%E -1.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.57I 17.95%NM 17.43%EV +2.20%E +0.395%K +0.482%G +0.011%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.45%EV -8.09%E -2.04%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -6.40%E -4.00%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -3.67%E -0.699%K -0.863%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 17:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -9.32%E -6.01%K -16.95%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -4.59%E -0.882%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 17:45
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -5.23%E -3.23%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.16I 19.38%NM 18.34%EV -5.32%E -1.03%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.25%EV -5.78%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 17:55
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -12.25%E -8.17%K -24.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -6.42%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 17:34
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -12.25%E -8.17%K -24.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -6.42%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 17:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -12.25%E -8.17%K -24.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -6.42%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 17:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -12.25%E -8.17%K -24.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -6.42%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 17:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -12.25%E -8.17%K -24.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -6.42%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.24%EV -12.25%E -8.17%K -24.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -6.42%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 17:35
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.04%EV -3.47%E -2.10%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.15%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -2.77%E -0.660%K -0.866%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 17:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.40%E -4.00%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -8.15%E -5.19%K -14.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 18:00
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -8.15%E -5.19%K -14.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 16:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.07%EV -9.91%E -6.43%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 17:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.07%EV -9.91%E -6.43%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 17:55
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -8.15%E -5.19%K -14.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.03%E -3.17%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.57%EV -9.32%E -6.01%K -16.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.16%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -9.72%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 18:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.71%EV -11.08%E -7.29%K -21.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.86%EV -13.42%E -9.07%K -27.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.72%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.43%EV -8.56%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 17:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.18%EV -14.59%E -9.99%K -31.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.24%EV -8.56%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-15 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.18%EV -14.59%E -9.99%K -31.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.24%EV -8.56%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-15 17:35
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 59.81%EV -15.76%E -10.94%K -35.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.22%EV -8.26%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.97%EV -13.19%E -3.52%K -4.80%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-15 17:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 60.12%EV -16.34%E -11.43%K -38.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.55%EV -10.09%E -2.06%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.33%EV -10.87%E -2.82%K -3.82%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-15 17:35
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -8.15%E -5.19%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -11.93%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -16.66%E -4.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 17:45
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -8.15%E -5.19%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -11.93%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -16.66%E -4.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -8.15%E -5.19%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -11.93%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -16.66%E -4.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 17:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -8.15%E -5.19%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -11.93%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -16.66%E -4.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 17:44
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.48%EV -9.32%E -6.01%K -16.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -12.84%E -2.70%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -13.19%E -3.52%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 17:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.61%EV -13.42%E -9.07%K -27.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.86%EV -15.60%E -3.39%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.53%EV -10.87%E -2.82%K -3.82%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-15 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 61.60%5.88I 17.01%NM 17.18%4.76I 21.01%NM 21.22%-1.0%2026-08-15 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.44%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.4%2026-08-15 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.44%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.4%2026-08-15 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.44%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.4%2026-08-15 18:00
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.22%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.12%3.0%2026-08-15 18:00