The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Al-Hilal v Al-Faisaly KSA FC

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hilal (Local)

Prediction 81.73%1.22fair odd
EV -6.83%
Edge -5.99%
Kelly -48.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.51%81.86%81.43%83.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.111.121.1492.59%90.02%89.29%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Visit)

Prediction 6.25%15.99fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.098%
Kelly +0.105%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 16.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.72%6.28%6.19%6.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0014.0713.6316.257.69%7.11%7.34%6.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.02%8.32fair odd
EV +10.92%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.145%

assuming max odds 9.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.27%11.86%12.38%13.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.597.509.2314.29%13.18%13.33%10.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hilal (Local): 81.73%; Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Visit): 6.25%; Draw: 12.02%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.32. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.90%EV -7.64%E -6.77%K -58.81%G +0.000%16.25I 6.15%NM 5.83%EV +1.60%E +0.098%K +0.105%G +0.002%9.23I 10.83%NM 10.27%EV +10.92%E +1.18%K +1.33%G +0.145%5.5%2026-08-14 17:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.48%EV -10.10%E -9.18%K -100.97%G +0.000%13.25I 7.55%NM 6.85%EV -17.16%E -1.30%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV +2.15%E +0.253%K +0.287%G +0.006%10.2%2026-08-14 17:54
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.19%EV -10.10%E -9.18%K -100.97%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.72%EV +0.033%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.09%EV -0.856%E -0.104%K -0.118%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:14
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.85%EV -11.73%E -10.86%K -146.64%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97%EV -6.22%E -0.415%K -0.444%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -3.86%E -0.482%K -0.551%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 16:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.85%EV -11.73%E -10.86%K -146.64%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97%EV -6.22%E -0.415%K -0.444%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -3.86%E -0.482%K -0.551%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 17:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.83%E -5.99%K -48.77%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -6.22%E -0.415%K -0.444%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.46%E -7.56%K -70.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.22%E -0.415%K -0.444%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 18:00
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.46%E -7.56%K -70.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -18.72%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 17:54
Grosvenor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.46%E -7.56%K -70.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -18.72%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.46%E -7.56%K -70.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -18.72%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 17:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.46%E -7.56%K -70.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -18.72%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 17:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.46%E -7.56%K -70.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -18.72%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 17:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.94%EV -8.46%E -7.56%K -70.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -18.72%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 17:54
Sky Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.22%EV -10.10%E -9.18%K -100.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -18.72%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 16:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.22%EV -10.10%E -9.18%K -100.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -18.72%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 17:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 81.49%EV -11.73%E -10.86%K -146.64%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.77%EV -18.72%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.74%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-14 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 81.49%EV -11.73%E -10.86%K -146.64%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.77%EV -18.72%E -1.44%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.74%EV -9.87%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-14 18:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.51%EV -7.64%E -6.77%K -58.81%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%EV -12.47%E -0.891%K -0.959%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -15.88%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 18:00
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -8.46%E -7.56%K -70.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -6.22%E -0.415%K -0.444%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -15.88%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 17:55
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -8.46%E -7.56%K -70.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -6.22%E -0.415%K -0.444%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -15.88%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 17:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -8.46%E -7.56%K -70.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -6.22%E -0.415%K -0.444%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -15.88%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 17:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -8.46%E -7.56%K -70.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -6.22%E -0.415%K -0.444%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -15.88%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.89%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.15%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.96%0.4%2026-08-14 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.53%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.13%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.33%0.8%2026-08-14 18:00
Kalshi◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.13%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.96%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%1.0%2026-08-14 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.73%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.10%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.17%1.7%2026-08-14 18:00