The School of Odds
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Al-Hazem v Al-Fayha

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 16:07 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hazem (Local)

Prediction 30.03%3.33fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.60%30.02%29.94%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.922.903.1837.04%34.31%34.48%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fayha (Visit)

Prediction 41.69%2.40fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.678%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.99%41.64%41.63%42.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.242.252.3648.78%44.69%44.44%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.28%3.54fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.790%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.63%28.35%28.43%29.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.183.203.4434.72%31.48%31.25%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hazem (Local): 30.03%; Al-Fayha (Visit): 41.69%; Draw: 28.28%. For Al-Fayha (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.36, with an expected value of -1.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 30.49%EV -4.52%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.08%EV -1.60%E -0.678%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.43%EV -3.57%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 16:04
Pinnacle🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -4.52%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.34%EV -6.19%E -2.75%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.70%EV -2.72%E -0.790%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 16:04
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 16:04
Unibet (UK)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.19%E -2.75%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.09%E -2.49%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 16:04
Betclic (FR)🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 30.00%EV -9.02%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -10.36%E -4.82%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.72%EV -7.24%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 16:04
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -9.92%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.85%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 16:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -9.92%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.68%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 16:04
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.92%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.68%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 16:04
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.92%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 16:03
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -9.92%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -10.36%E -4.82%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.09%E -2.49%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 16:03
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -11.43%E -3.87%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.68%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 16:04
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -12.93%E -4.46%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -10.36%E -4.82%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -12.33%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-11 16:04
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -12.93%E -4.46%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -10.36%E -4.82%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -15.16%E -5.05%K -7.58%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-11 16:04
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -12.93%E -4.46%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -10.36%E -4.82%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -15.16%E -5.05%K -7.58%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-11 16:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -12.93%E -4.46%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -10.36%E -4.82%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -15.16%E -5.05%K -7.58%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-11 16:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -12.93%E -4.46%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -10.36%E -4.82%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -15.16%E -5.05%K -7.58%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-11 16:04
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 29.99%EV -13.53%E -4.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.14%EV -14.53%E -7.09%K -13.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -12.33%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-11 16:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 29.66%EV -13.53%E -4.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.68%EV -12.44%E -5.92%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.66%EV -18.55%E -6.44%K -9.87%G +0.000%17.1%2026-04-11 16:04
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.43%E -5.06%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -2.02%E -0.859%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 16:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.43%E -5.06%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -2.02%E -0.859%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 16:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.43%E -5.06%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -2.02%E -0.859%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 16:02
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.43%E -5.06%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -2.02%E -0.859%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 16:01
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.43%E -5.06%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -2.02%E -0.859%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 16:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.43%E -5.06%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -2.02%E -0.859%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 16:04
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -15.93%E -5.69%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.06%EV -2.85%E -1.22%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 16:02
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -15.93%E -5.69%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.06%EV -2.85%E -1.22%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 16:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -15.93%E -5.69%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -12.44%E -5.92%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -15.16%E -5.05%K -7.58%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-11 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.33%EV -17.43%E -6.34%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.99%EV -4.94%E -2.17%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.68%EV -12.33%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-11 16:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.33%EV -17.43%E -6.34%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.99%EV -4.94%E -2.17%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.68%EV -12.33%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-11 16:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -18.93%E -7.01%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.08%EV -6.19%E -2.75%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -12.33%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-11 16:02
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.23%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-04-11 16:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.23%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-04-11 16:05
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 29.91%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.91%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.18%2.9%2026-04-11 16:05
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.76%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-04-11 16:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.22%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.33%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.45%3.4%2026-04-11 16:05