The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Fayha v Neom

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fayha (Local)

Prediction 34.52%2.90fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.569%
Kelly -0.876%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.44%34.47%34.52%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.702.8540.00%37.11%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Neom (Visit)

Prediction 35.57%2.81fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +0.849%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.69%35.65%35.38%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.512.502.8842.19%39.84%40.00%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.91%3.34fair odd
EV -0.400%
Edge -0.120%
Kelly -0.172%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.92%29.87%30.10%31.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.043.053.3336.36%32.85%32.79%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fayha (Local): 34.52%; Neom (Visit): 35.57%; Draw: 29.91%. For Neom (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.17%EV -9.91%E -3.80%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%EV +2.44%E +0.849%K +1.30%G +0.032%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.14%EV -0.400%E -0.120%K -0.172%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-25 18:55
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.03%EV -6.11%E -2.25%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.91%EV -2.89%E -1.06%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.06%EV -5.19%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-25 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -5.07%E -1.84%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -7.52%E -2.89%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -4.29%E -1.34%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-25 18:05
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -5.07%E -1.84%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -7.52%E -2.89%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -4.29%E -1.34%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-25 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.07%E -1.84%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -7.52%E -2.89%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -5.78%E -1.84%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-25 18:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -7.52%E -2.89%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-25 18:35
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -13.70%E -5.48%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.05%EV -7.52%E -2.89%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.53%EV -13.26%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-25 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -13.70%E -5.48%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.05%EV -7.52%E -2.89%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.53%EV -13.26%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-25 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -13.70%E -5.48%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.05%EV -7.52%E -2.89%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.53%EV -13.26%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-25 18:55
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -9.29%E -3.64%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-25 18:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.47%EV -8.52%E -3.22%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.54%EV -11.07%E -4.43%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -5.78%E -1.84%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-25 18:09
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -9.56%E -3.65%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -11.07%E -4.43%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-25 18:10
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -9.21%E -3.50%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -11.07%E -4.43%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -13.26%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-25 18:09
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.94%EV -13.70%E -5.48%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.94%EV -11.07%E -4.43%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.12%EV -13.26%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%14.5%2026-02-25 18:55
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.94%EV -13.70%E -5.48%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.94%EV -11.07%E -4.43%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.12%EV -13.26%E -4.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%14.5%2026-02-25 18:10
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -1.62%E -0.569%K -0.876%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -12.85%E -5.25%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-25 18:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -1.62%E -0.569%K -0.876%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -12.85%E -5.25%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-25 18:30
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -1.62%E -0.569%K -0.876%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -12.85%E -5.25%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-25 18:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -1.62%E -0.569%K -0.876%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -12.85%E -5.25%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-25 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -1.62%E -0.569%K -0.876%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -12.85%E -5.25%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-25 18:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -1.62%E -0.569%K -0.876%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -12.85%E -5.25%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-25 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -10.25%E -3.94%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.85%E -5.25%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -7.28%E -2.35%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-25 18:10
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -13.56%E -5.58%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -8.77%E -2.88%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-25 18:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -13.56%E -5.58%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -8.77%E -2.88%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-25 18:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.69%EV -8.52%E -3.22%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 37.04%EV -14.27%E -5.92%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.27%EV -8.77%E -2.88%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-25 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -5.07%E -1.84%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -15.34%E -6.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-25 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -5.07%E -1.84%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -15.34%E -6.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.27%E -3.42%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-25 18:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 32.66%EV -9.21%E -3.50%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.10%EV -15.34%E -6.45%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.24%EV -17.75%E -6.45%K -10.14%G +0.000%16.4%2026-02-25 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 33.29%EV -7.49%E -2.79%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.65%EV -15.70%E -6.62%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.06%EV -8.18%E -2.66%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-25 18:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.56%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.56%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-02-25 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.56%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.56%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-02-25 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.47%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.72%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%1.4%2026-02-25 18:55
Smarkets◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.46%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.46%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%2.2%2026-02-25 18:55