L’École des cotes

Al-Fayha v Al-Riyadh

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-04 16:10 UTC

Score final : Al-Fayha 4–2 Al-Riyadh

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

31 opérateurs (7 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Al-Fayha (Local)

Prévision 37.08%2.70cote équitable
EV -2.49%
Avantage -0.945%
Kelly -1.52%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.63

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.29%37.05%37.21%38.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.282.432.402.6343.86%41.19%41.67%38.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Al-Riyadh (Visiteur)

Prévision 35.77%2.80cote équitable
EV +1.95%
Avantage +0.684%
Kelly +1.05%
Croissance +0.021%

avec la cote maximale 2.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.38%35.77%35.72%36.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.402.632.602.8541.67%37.99%38.46%35.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.15%3.68cote équitable
EV -2.26%
Avantage -0.628%
Kelly -0.869%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.45%27.18%27.06%29.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.243.203.6034.72%30.85%31.25%27.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (31 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -11.76%E -4.94%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV +1.95%E +0.684%K +1.05%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 15:55
Unibet (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -11.76%E -4.94%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV +1.95%E +0.684%K +1.05%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 15:55
Unibet (NL)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -11.76%E -4.94%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV +1.95%E +0.684%K +1.05%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 15:55
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -11.76%E -4.94%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV +1.95%E +0.684%K +1.05%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 15:55
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -11.76%E -4.94%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV +1.95%E +0.684%K +1.05%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 15:55
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -11.76%E -4.94%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV +1.95%E +0.684%K +1.05%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 15:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -12.87%E -5.48%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV +0.162%E +0.058%K +0.090%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -14.48%E -4.60%K -6.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-04 15:55
LeoVegas2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -12.87%E -5.48%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV +0.162%E +0.058%K +0.090%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -14.48%E -4.60%K -6.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-04 15:55
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -14.72%E -6.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -1.63%E -0.592%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -15.83%E -5.11%K -7.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-04 15:55
LiveScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -14.72%E -6.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -1.63%E -0.592%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -15.83%E -5.11%K -7.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-04 15:55
PMU (FR)2.28I 43.86%NM 38.58%EV -15.46%E -6.78%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.58%EV -3.42%E -1.26%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.84%EV -17.19%E -5.64%K -8.39%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-04 15:55
1xBet2.63I 38.02%NM 36.87%EV -2.49%E -0.945%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 36.05%EV -3.77%E -1.40%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.09%EV -2.80%E -0.783%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-04 16:04
Tipico (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -9.16%E -3.74%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -10.40%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-04 15:45
Pinnacle2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34%EV -5.45%E -2.14%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.21%EV -5.92%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -2.26%E -0.628%K -0.869%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 15:55
Coral2.62I 38.17%NM 36.09%EV -2.86%E -1.09%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.09%EV -6.28%E -2.40%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-04 15:49
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -3.60%E -1.38%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -10.40%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-04 15:50
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -7.31%E -2.92%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -10.40%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-04 15:43
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -7.31%E -2.92%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -10.40%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-04 15:55
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -7.31%E -2.92%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -10.40%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-04 15:50
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -9.16%E -3.74%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.40%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-04 15:55
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.16%E -3.74%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.69%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-04 15:30
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -11.01%E -4.59%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -10.40%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-04 15:50
Betclic (FR)2.38I 42.02%NM 37.50%EV -11.76%E -4.94%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.80%EV -9.59%E -2.88%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-04 15:49
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -9.16%E -3.74%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-04 15:55
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.23%EV -12.87%E -5.48%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -14.48%E -4.60%K -6.73%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-04 15:50
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -9.16%E -3.74%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -12.36%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-04 15:50
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -9.16%E -3.74%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -12.36%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-04 15:50
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -9.16%E -3.74%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -12.36%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-04 15:55
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -9.16%E -3.74%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -12.36%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.12%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-04 15:55
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 36.86%EV -11.76%E -4.94%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.55%EV -14.15%E -5.89%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.58%EV -10.40%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-04 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.29%EV -11.01%E -4.59%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.29%EV -14.15%E -5.89%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -21.81%E -7.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%18.1%2026-05-04 15:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.92%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.1%2026-05-04 16:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.92%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.1%2026-05-04 16:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.92%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.1%2026-05-04 16:05
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 37.03%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.54%2.3%2026-05-04 16:00
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 36.54%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.60%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.86%4.0%2026-05-04 16:05