The School of Odds
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Al-Fayha v Al-Riyadh

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:40 UTC

Final: Al-Fayha 1–1 Al-Riyadh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fayha (Local)

Prediction 42.43%2.36fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.82%42.58%42.20%44.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.152.152.3051.55%46.57%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Riyadh (Visit)

Prediction 28.92%3.46fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.346%
Kelly +0.484%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.31%28.64%29.22%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.063.003.5035.71%32.72%33.33%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.65%3.49fair odd
EV -0.003%
Edge -0.001%
Kelly -0.001%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.00%28.78%28.58%30.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.173.4933.33%31.73%31.50%28.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fayha (Local): 42.43%; Al-Riyadh (Visit): 28.92%; Draw: 28.65%. For Al-Riyadh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -13.02%E -6.35%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV +1.21%E +0.346%K +0.484%G +0.006%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 13:29
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.13%EV -4.11%E -1.82%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.36%EV +0.633%E +0.182%K +0.255%G +0.002%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%EV -10.60%E -3.40%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 13:39
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -8.78%E -4.08%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -3.13%E -0.933%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -12.61%E -4.13%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 13:35
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.90%E -5.19%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -4.57%E -1.39%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-11 13:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.90%E -5.19%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -4.57%E -1.39%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-11 13:34
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -2.41%E -1.05%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 13:39
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.67%EV -4.53%E -2.01%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.82%EV -6.89%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.51%EV -0.003%E -0.001%K -0.001%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-11 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -2.41%E -1.05%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 13:34
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.65%E -3.02%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 13:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.65%E -3.02%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 13:29
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -13.02%E -6.35%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-11 13:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.21%EV -13.87%E -6.83%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.95%EV -12.38%E -4.09%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.84%EV -9.75%E -3.09%K -4.53%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-11 13:27
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.78%E -4.08%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -13.25%E -4.42%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-11 13:29
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -8.78%E -4.08%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -13.25%E -4.42%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 13:29
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -8.78%E -4.08%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -13.25%E -4.42%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 13:28
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -8.78%E -4.08%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -13.25%E -4.42%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 13:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -8.78%E -4.08%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -13.25%E -4.42%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 13:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.50%EV -7.50%E -3.44%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.67%EV -14.69%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 12:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.50%EV -7.50%E -3.44%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.67%EV -14.69%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 12:49
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.32%EV -7.50%E -3.44%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.53%EV -14.69%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-11 13:39
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.32%EV -7.50%E -3.44%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.53%EV -14.69%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-11 13:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.32%EV -7.50%E -3.44%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.53%EV -14.69%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-11 13:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.32%EV -7.50%E -3.44%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.53%EV -14.69%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-11 13:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.23%EV -10.90%E -5.19%K -9.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -14.69%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 13:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.26%EV -8.78%E -4.08%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.59%EV -16.14%E -5.57%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.16%EV -9.75%E -3.09%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-11 13:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.26%EV -8.78%E -4.08%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.59%EV -16.14%E -5.57%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.16%EV -9.75%E -3.09%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-11 13:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.37%EV -9.20%E -4.30%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.53%EV -16.14%E -5.57%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -9.75%E -3.09%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-11 13:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 43.18%EV -17.69%E -9.12%K -18.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.89%EV -16.14%E -5.57%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.93%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000%19.4%2026-10-11 13:29
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.14%EV -13.02%E -6.35%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.86%EV -19.03%E -6.80%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.00%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-11 13:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 41.36%EV -12.17%E -5.88%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.57%EV -19.03%E -6.80%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.07%EV -12.61%E -4.13%K -6.15%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-11 13:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.03%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.04%-0.0%2026-10-11 13:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%1.2%2026-10-11 13:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%1.2%2026-10-11 13:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%1.2%2026-10-11 13:35
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.04%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.02%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.93%2.8%2026-10-11 13:35