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Al-Fayha v Al-Riyadh

2026-10-11 13:40 UTC — Saudi Pro League

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fayha (Local)

Prediction 42.92%2.33fair odd
EV -5.58%
Edge -2.53%
Kelly -4.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.88%42.98%43.04%44.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.122.122.2050.25%47.13%47.17%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Riyadh (Visit)

Prediction 28.11%3.56fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.542%
Kelly -0.760%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.86%28.01%28.04%31.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.053.003.4935.09%32.78%33.33%28.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.97%3.45fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.882%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.24%29.01%28.93%29.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.203.3533.33%31.71%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Al-Fayha (Local): 42.92%; Al-Riyadh (Visit): 28.11%; Draw: 28.97%. For Al-Riyadh (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.49, with an expected value of -1.89%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.58%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -10.04%E -3.14%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.30%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-04 14:45
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -5.58%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -18.48%E -6.37%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -7.30%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-04 15:25
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -5.58%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -18.48%E -6.37%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -7.30%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-04 15:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -5.58%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -18.48%E -6.37%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -7.30%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-04 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -5.58%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -18.48%E -6.37%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -7.30%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-04 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -5.58%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -18.48%E -6.37%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -7.30%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-04 15:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -5.58%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -18.48%E -6.37%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -7.30%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-04 15:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.06%EV -7.29%E -3.38%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.79%EV -19.04%E -6.61%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -8.75%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-04 15:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.06%EV -7.29%E -3.38%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.79%EV -19.04%E -6.61%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -8.75%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-04 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.23%E -2.19%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.30%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-04 15:15
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.86%E -4.15%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -4.40%E -1.33%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.04%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.96%EV -19.88%E -6.98%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.01%EV -8.75%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-04 15:24
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -9.01%E -4.25%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 26.86%EV -1.89%E -0.542%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.93%EV -6.14%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-04 15:30
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -9.01%E -4.25%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.97%EV -6.11%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.97%EV -3.24%E -0.971%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 14:55
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.16%EV -9.01%E -4.25%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -12.86%E -4.15%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -2.95%E -0.882%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-04 14:45
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -15.67%E -5.22%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -4.40%E -1.33%K -1.91%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-04 14:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.85%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.79%EV -17.07%E -5.79%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -10.20%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-04 14:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.34%EV -11.16%E -5.39%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.93%EV -14.82%E -4.89%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.74%EV -11.64%E -3.82%K -5.68%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-04 14:48
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -12.01%E -5.86%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -8.64%E -2.66%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -13.09%E -4.36%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:31
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -12.01%E -5.86%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -8.64%E -2.66%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -13.09%E -4.36%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -12.01%E -5.86%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -8.64%E -2.66%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -13.09%E -4.36%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:31
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -12.01%E -5.86%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -8.64%E -2.66%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -13.09%E -4.36%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 16:31
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.23%EV -12.01%E -5.86%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.85%EV -18.48%E -6.37%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.92%EV -10.20%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-04 14:51
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.22%EV -14.16%E -7.08%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.63%EV -19.88%E -6.98%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.15%EV -13.09%E -4.36%K -6.55%G +0.000%18.4%2026-10-04 14:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 42.98%EV -14.59%E -7.33%K -14.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.51%EV -15.67%E -5.22%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.51%EV -13.09%E -4.36%K -6.55%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-04 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 44.26%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.90%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.84%4.1%2026-10-04 17:05
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 41.73%2.94I 34.01%NM 29.24%2.96I 33.78%NM 29.04%16.3%2026-10-04 14:45