The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Fayha v Al-Ettifaq

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 19:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fayha (Local)

Prediction 40.53%2.47fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%40.60%40.53%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.212.4047.62%44.90%45.15%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ettifaq (Visit)

Prediction 31.18%3.21fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -0.975%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.92%31.39%31.18%33.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.953.1137.04%34.16%33.90%32.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.29%3.53fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -0.951%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.76%28.00%28.29%29.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.243.303.4234.48%30.85%30.30%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fayha (Local): 40.53%; Al-Ettifaq (Visit): 31.18%; Draw: 28.29%. For Al-Fayha (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -2.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.39%EV -2.72%E -1.13%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.27%EV -3.35%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.34%EV -3.25%E -0.951%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-13 18:59
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.21%EV -3.94%E -1.66%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76%EV -6.46%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -3.82%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 19:00
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.35%EV -4.34%E -1.84%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.62%EV -3.03%E -0.975%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.03%EV -7.21%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-13 18:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.46%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.65%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-13 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -8.02%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-13 19:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -15.82%E -5.86%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -3.82%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-13 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.46%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -5.23%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-13 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.46%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -5.23%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-13 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.46%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -5.23%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-13 19:00
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.58%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.65%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-13 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.46%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -11.14%E -3.91%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -6.65%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-13 19:00
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -10.20%E -3.54%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-13 19:00
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -8.80%E -3.91%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -10.20%E -3.54%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-13 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.51%EV -9.61%E -4.31%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.46%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -5.23%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-13 19:00
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -6.46%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -5.23%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-13 19:00
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -8.02%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.65%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-13 19:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -8.02%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.65%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-13 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -8.02%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.65%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-13 19:00
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -9.58%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -15.13%E -5.04%K -7.57%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-13 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -9.58%E -3.30%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -15.13%E -5.04%K -7.57%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-13 18:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.85%EV -11.64%E -5.34%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -8.02%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.23%EV -5.23%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-13 19:00
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.67%EV -11.64%E -5.34%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -8.02%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -6.65%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-13 19:00
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.02%EV -12.86%E -5.98%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.29%EV -14.26%E -5.18%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.68%EV -15.13%E -5.04%K -7.57%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-13 18:59
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.85%EV -12.86%E -5.98%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.60%EV -12.70%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.55%EV -17.96%E -6.19%K -9.45%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-13 19:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.85%EV -12.86%E -5.98%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.60%EV -12.70%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.55%EV -17.96%E -6.19%K -9.45%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-13 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.08%EV -13.26%E -6.20%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.22%EV -7.09%E -2.38%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-13 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%EV -14.88%E -7.09%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.92%EV -7.40%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-13 18:52
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.78%EV -14.88%E -7.09%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.14%EV -14.26%E -5.18%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.08%EV -13.72%E -4.50%K -6.69%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-13 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.46%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-03-13 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.46%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-03-13 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.46%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-03-13 19:00
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.40%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.73%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.87%4.0%2026-03-13 19:00
Smarkets◎1.02I 98.04%NM 43.48%1.02I 98.04%NM 43.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 13.04%125.5%2026-03-13 19:00