Language:English
Al-Fateh v Damac
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Fateh (Local)
Prediction 45.52%2.20fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -4.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.42%45.54%45.52%50.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.941.952.1055.25%51.51%51.28%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Damac (Visit)
Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd
EV +4.45%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.069%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.88%27.03%27.14%28.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.493.503.8532.26%28.64%28.57%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.35%3.66fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -0.822%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.89%27.43%27.34%28.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.323.353.5533.33%30.15%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fateh (Local): 45.52%; Damac (Visit): 27.13%; Draw: 27.35%. For Damac (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.45%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.23%EV -16.69%E -9.12%K -20.11%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV +4.45%E +1.16%K +1.56%G +0.069% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -2.92%E -0.822%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.00%EV -14.87%E -7.95%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV +1.74%E +0.463%K +0.631%G +0.011% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -5.65%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.00%EV -14.87%E -7.95%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV +1.74%E +0.463%K +0.631%G +0.011% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -5.65%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.00%EV -14.87%E -7.95%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV +1.74%E +0.463%K +0.631%G +0.011% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -5.65%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.00%EV -14.87%E -7.95%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV +1.74%E +0.463%K +0.631%G +0.011% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -5.65%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.00%EV -14.87%E -7.95%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV +1.74%E +0.463%K +0.631%G +0.011% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -5.65%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -15.78%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV +0.380%E +0.103%K +0.141%G +0.001% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.02%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -15.78%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV +0.380%E +0.103%K +0.141%G +0.001% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.02%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -11.23%E -5.76%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -2.33%E -0.648%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.02%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.95%EV -17.60%E -9.73%K -21.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -2.33%E -0.648%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.45%EV -8.39%E -2.50%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.95%EV -17.60%E -9.73%K -21.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -2.33%E -0.648%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.45%EV -8.39%E -2.50%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.76%EV -5.31%E -2.55%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.66%EV -3.15%E -0.881%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.59%EV -5.65%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -4.40%E -2.10%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -7.02%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -4.40%E -2.10%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.75%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -11.23%E -5.76%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.75%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -11.23%E -5.76%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.75%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.89%EV -9.86%E -4.98%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.41%EV -6.67%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 27.70%EV -10.30%E -3.14%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -8.39%E -2.50%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.33%EV -13.05%E -6.83%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -12.49%E -3.90%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-02-26 18:56 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.28%EV -12.14%E -6.29%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -9.75%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-26 18:53 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.52%EV -10.78%E -5.50%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -11.12%E -3.42%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.95%E -4.48%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -15.22%E -4.91%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.95%E -4.48%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -15.22%E -4.91%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.95%E -4.48%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -15.22%E -4.91%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.95%E -4.48%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -15.22%E -4.91%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -8.95%E -4.48%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.83%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -7.02%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.96%EV -13.05%E -6.83%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -11.83%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.62%EV -17.96%E -5.99%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.07%EV -9.86%E -4.98%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -13.18%E -4.12%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -9.75%E -2.96%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.86%EV -11.23%E -5.76%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -15.90%E -5.13%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -11.12%E -3.42%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.21% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.51% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28% | 1.8% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.06% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.76% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.19% | 2.2% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.06% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.76% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.19% | 2.2% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.27% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.29% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.43% | 2.7% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |