The School of Odds
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Al-Fateh v Al-Ettifaq

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:45 UTC

Final: Al-Fateh 0–1 Al-Ettifaq

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fateh (Local)

Prediction 39.68%2.52fair odd
EV -4.77%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -3.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.35%39.59%39.67%41.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.272.252.4046.73%44.04%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ettifaq (Visit)

Prediction 34.05%2.94fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -0.668%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.05%34.18%34.17%36.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.662.652.8840.00%37.65%37.74%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.27%3.81fair odd
EV -5.43%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.13%26.23%26.15%27.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.503.6030.77%28.90%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fateh (Local): 39.68%; Al-Ettifaq (Visit): 34.05%; Draw: 26.27%. For Al-Ettifaq (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.88, with an expected value of -1.92%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -4.77%E -1.99%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 05:45
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -4.77%E -1.99%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 11:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -4.77%E -1.99%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -13.16%E -5.16%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 15:14
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.83%EV -5.17%E -2.16%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.05%EV -1.92%E -0.668%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.12%EV -7.80%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 15:05
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.76%E -2.88%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.25%EV -4.31%E -1.53%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.00%EV -9.11%E -2.63%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 15:03
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -6.76%E -2.88%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 05:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 15:00
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 14:59
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 15:00
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.95%EV -10.78%E -4.11%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -14.63%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-22 05:45
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.95%EV -10.78%E -4.11%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -14.63%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-22 05:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.95%EV -10.78%E -4.11%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -14.63%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-22 05:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.95%EV -10.78%E -4.11%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -14.63%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-22 05:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.42%EV -10.73%E -4.77%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -9.76%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 15:00
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -10.73%E -4.77%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.07%EV -9.76%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 15:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -10.73%E -4.77%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.07%EV -9.76%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 15:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -10.73%E -4.77%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.07%EV -9.76%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 15:05
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -10.73%E -4.77%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.07%EV -9.76%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 15:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -10.73%E -4.77%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.07%EV -9.76%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 15:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -10.73%E -4.77%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.07%EV -9.76%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 15:05
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -10.73%E -4.77%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.33%EV -10.78%E -4.11%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-22 15:04
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -10.73%E -4.77%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -10.44%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-22 15:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.79%EV -11.52%E -5.17%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.44%EV -7.37%E -2.71%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.77%EV -7.27%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 15:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -12.71%E -5.78%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -6.35%E -2.31%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 05:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.55%EV -12.71%E -5.78%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.31%EV -11.46%E -4.41%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -6.75%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.11%EV -12.71%E -5.78%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.94%EV -11.46%E -4.41%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.95%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-22 15:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.33%EV -13.50%E -6.19%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -11.46%E -4.41%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.86%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-22 15:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.33%EV -13.50%E -6.19%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -11.46%E -4.41%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.86%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-22 15:05
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.66%EV -14.69%E -6.83%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.11%EV -14.86%E -5.95%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.24%EV -14.63%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%17.3%2026-08-22 15:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 39.93%EV -15.09%E -7.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.18%EV -14.86%E -5.95%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.89%EV -13.32%E -4.03%K -5.79%G +0.000%17.0%2026-08-22 15:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.66%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-08-22 11:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.93%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.87%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20%1.8%2026-08-22 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.93%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.87%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20%1.8%2026-08-22 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.93%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.87%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20%1.8%2026-08-22 15:15
Smarkets◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.09%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.1%2026-08-22 15:20