The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Ettifaq v Diriyah Club

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 18:01 UTC

Final: Al-Ettifaq 0–3 Diriyah Club

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ettifaq (Local)

Prediction 29.92%3.34fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -0.757%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.08%30.18%29.85%32.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.013.003.2635.71%33.21%33.33%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Diriyah Club (Visit)

Prediction 44.13%2.27fair odd
EV -0.257%
Edge -0.114%
Kelly -0.204%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.82%44.05%44.07%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.052.052.2652.63%48.83%48.78%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.95%3.85fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.438%
Kelly +0.588%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.24%25.77%26.08%26.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.483.403.9230.77%28.75%29.41%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ettifaq (Local): 29.92%; Diriyah Club (Visit): 44.13%; Draw: 25.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 32.26%EV -9.95%E -3.31%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.97%EV -0.257%E -0.114%K -0.204%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.77%EV +1.72%E +0.438%K +0.588%G +0.010%3.0%2026-08-29 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -11.73%E -5.87%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -2.69%E -0.718%K -0.980%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 18:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -14.74%E -5.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -5.11%E -2.38%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -3.99%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 18:00
Pinnacle🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 29.17%EV -2.47%E -0.757%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.85%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.98%EV -5.03%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 17:55
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.26%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -5.11%E -2.38%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.59%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 18:00
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.59%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 17:55
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -8.75%E -2.87%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.37%EV -8.64%E -4.17%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -6.59%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.08%EV -6.66%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -11.73%E -5.87%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -7.88%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 17:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.28%EV -14.74%E -5.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 45.42%EV -16.14%E -8.50%K -17.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.31%EV -7.88%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-29 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -5.11%E -2.38%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.18%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 18:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.32%E -3.48%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.18%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 17:20
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.18%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.18%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 17:55
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 18:00
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.34%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 18:00
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-29 17:55
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-29 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-29 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-29 17:55
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -9.52%E -4.65%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-29 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -13.94%E -7.15%K -14.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-29 17:36
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.68%EV -16.23%E -5.80%K -9.02%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.05%EV -13.94%E -7.15%K -14.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.27%EV -11.78%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-29 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.18%EV -11.73%E -5.87%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -13.07%E -3.90%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-29 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.25%EV -12.61%E -6.37%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -14.37%E -4.35%K -6.25%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-29 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -10.25%E -3.42%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.25%EV -12.61%E -6.37%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -14.37%E -4.35%K -6.25%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-29 18:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.46%EV -13.24%E -4.57%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.26%EV -14.82%E -7.68%K -15.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.28%EV -15.67%E -4.82%K -6.96%G +0.000%17.1%2026-08-29 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.68%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53%1.7%2026-08-29 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.68%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53%1.7%2026-08-29 17:51
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.68%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53%1.7%2026-08-29 17:45
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.48%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.13%4.7%2026-08-29 18:00
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 29.91%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.87%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%7.2%2026-08-29 18:00