The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Ettifaq v Al-Riyadh

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Ettifaq 4–2 Al-Riyadh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ettifaq (Local)

Prediction 35.22%2.84fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.86%35.61%35.43%39.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.512.522.7545.45%39.86%39.60%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Riyadh (Visit)

Prediction 38.12%2.62fair odd
EV +0.259%
Edge +0.099%
Kelly +0.159%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.82%37.81%38.05%39.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.452.6343.48%40.83%40.82%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.66%3.75fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.513%
Kelly -0.704%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.61%26.58%26.52%27.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.353.6831.25%29.74%29.85%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ettifaq (Local): 35.22%; Al-Riyadh (Visit): 38.12%; Draw: 26.66%. For Al-Riyadh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.259%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.49%EV -3.86%E -1.41%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.84%EV +0.259%E +0.099%K +0.159%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-14 17:55
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -15.48%E -6.45%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -2.79%E -1.09%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 17:39
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -15.48%E -6.45%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -2.79%E -1.09%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -15.48%E -6.45%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -2.79%E -1.09%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -15.48%E -6.45%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -2.79%E -1.09%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -15.48%E -6.45%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -2.79%E -1.09%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -15.48%E -6.45%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -2.79%E -1.09%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -8.44%E -3.24%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -4.70%E -1.88%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-14 17:50
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -10.20%E -4.00%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -4.70%E -1.88%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-14 17:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -17.24%E -7.34%K -12.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -4.70%E -1.88%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-14 17:49
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.57%EV -22.52%E -10.24%K -18.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.82%EV -4.70%E -1.88%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.61%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-14 17:44
Pinnacle🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.69%EV -5.97%E -2.24%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.42%EV -5.46%E -2.20%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.89%EV -1.89%E -0.513%K -0.704%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 17:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.64%EV -17.94%E -7.70%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.37%EV -5.46%E -2.20%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -13.35%E -4.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-14 17:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.64%EV -17.94%E -7.70%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.37%EV -5.46%E -2.20%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -13.35%E -4.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-14 17:50
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -3.15%E -1.15%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.60%E -2.69%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -10.20%E -4.00%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -6.60%E -2.69%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-14 17:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.96%E -4.78%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -6.60%E -2.69%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-14 17:45
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.96%E -4.78%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -6.60%E -2.69%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -12.02%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-14 17:44
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -13.72%E -5.60%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -6.60%E -2.69%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -13.35%E -4.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-14 17:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -4.91%E -1.82%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -8.51%E -3.55%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 17:49
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -8.44%E -3.24%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.51%E -3.55%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.69%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -6.67%E -2.52%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -8.51%E -3.55%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -10.20%E -4.00%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -8.51%E -3.55%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -8.02%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 37.56%EV -19.70%E -8.64%K -15.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.68%EV -8.51%E -3.55%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.76%EV -14.68%E -4.59%K -6.67%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-14 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.73%EV -11.96%E -4.78%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -10.41%E -4.43%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-14 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 33.86%EV -5.62%E -2.10%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -12.32%E -5.36%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.35%E -2.75%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 17:54
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -8.44%E -3.24%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -12.32%E -5.36%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.30%EV -13.35%E -4.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -8.44%E -3.24%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -12.32%E -5.36%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.30%EV -13.35%E -4.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 17:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -8.44%E -3.24%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -12.32%E -5.36%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.30%EV -13.35%E -4.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 17:50
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -8.44%E -3.24%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -12.32%E -5.36%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.30%EV -13.35%E -4.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.60%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.65%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-14 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.08%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.21%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-08-14 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.23%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65%1.4%2026-08-14 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.23%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65%1.4%2026-08-14 17:55
Smarkets◎2.76I 36.23%NM 34.96%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.60%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.44%3.6%2026-08-14 17:55