Language:English
Al-Ettifaq v Al-Najma
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Ettifaq (Local)
Prediction 64.58%1.55fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -4.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.85%64.45%64.67%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.421.421.5173.53%70.26%70.42%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Najma (Visit)
Prediction 16.10%6.21fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.243%
Kelly -0.291%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.38%16.20%15.98%17.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.565.506.1220.00%18.00%18.18%16.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.32%5.18fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -0.442%
Kelly -0.551%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.64%19.35%19.35%20.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.574.505.0623.09%21.88%22.22%19.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ettifaq (Local): 64.58%; Al-Najma (Visit): 16.10%; Draw: 19.32%. For Al-Najma (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.12, with an expected value of -1.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.22%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.58%EV -5.84%E -0.998%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.20%EV -2.43%E -0.481%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -4.42%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -7.26%E -1.51%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.90%EV -5.71%E -3.91%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -13.06%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -13.06%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -13.06%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -13.06%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -13.06%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -13.06%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.79%EV -7.00%E -4.86%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 6.12I 16.34%NM 15.48%EV -1.49%E -0.243%K -0.291%G +0.000% | 5.06I 19.76%NM 18.72%EV -2.24%E -0.442%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -7.00%E -4.86%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -7.26%E -1.51%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 17:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -7.00%E -4.86%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -13.06%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.03%EV -7.00%E -4.86%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.81%EV -13.08%E -2.42%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -13.06%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.03%EV -7.00%E -4.86%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.81%EV -13.08%E -2.42%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -13.06%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.69%EV -8.29%E -5.84%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.97%EV -7.45%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -8.23%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-04 17:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.64%EV -8.29%E -5.84%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -6.64%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -9.19%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-04 17:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 62.87%EV -8.29%E -5.84%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.84%EV -14.69%E -2.77%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -14.99%E -3.41%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 62.87%EV -8.29%E -5.84%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.84%EV -14.69%E -2.77%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -14.99%E -3.41%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.76%EV -8.94%E -6.34%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -5.33%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-04 17:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -9.58%E -6.85%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.52%EV -11.13%E -2.42%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-04 17:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.02%EV -9.58%E -6.85%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.91%EV -14.69%E -2.77%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.07%EV -9.19%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-04 17:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -9.58%E -6.85%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -14.99%E -3.41%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -9.58%E -6.85%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -14.99%E -3.41%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -9.58%E -6.85%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -14.99%E -3.41%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -9.58%E -6.85%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -14.99%E -3.41%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -9.58%E -6.85%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -16.34%E -3.77%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-04 17:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.95%EV -9.58%E -6.85%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.79%EV -15.49%E -2.95%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.26%EV -15.96%E -3.67%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.85%EV -9.58%E -6.85%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.60%EV -19.52%E -3.90%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -13.06%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-04 17:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 65.57%EV -10.23%E -7.36%K -26.23%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.45%EV -5.03%E -0.853%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -7.26%E -1.51%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-04 17:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.54%EV -12.17%E -8.95%K -33.80%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -11.47%E -2.09%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -13.06%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-04 17:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 63.72%EV -12.17%E -8.95%K -33.80%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.35%EV -14.69%E -2.77%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 19.92%EV -15.96%E -3.67%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-05-04 17:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.66% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.61% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74% | 0.7% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.66% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.61% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74% | 0.7% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.35% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.84% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.81% | 1.0% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.42% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.55% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03% | 1.1% | 2026-05-04 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.57% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.49% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.95% | 1.5% | 2026-05-04 17:55 |