Language:English
Al-Ahli v Al-Hazem
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Ahli (Local)
Prediction 71.13%1.41fair odd
EV -5.40%
Edge -4.06%
Kelly -16.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.68%71.36%70.94%73.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.281.281.3381.30%78.37%78.13%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Hazem (Visit)
Prediction 11.50%8.70fair odd
EV +9.25%
Edge +0.974%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.101%
assuming max odds 9.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.68%11.45%11.53%12.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.957.509.5014.81%12.59%13.33%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 17.37%5.76fair odd
EV +5.96%
Edge +0.977%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.070%
assuming max odds 6.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.28%17.19%17.53%18.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.145.006.1021.05%19.44%20.00%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ahli (Local): 71.13%; Al-Hazem (Visit): 11.50%; Draw: 17.37%. For Al-Hazem (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.70. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.97%EV -8.24%E -6.39%K -28.43%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV +9.25%E +0.974%K +1.09%G +0.101% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 13:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -11.09%E -8.87%K -44.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV +9.25%E +0.974%K +1.09%G +0.101% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 12:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.96%EV -5.40%E -4.06%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +3.50%E +0.389%K +0.438%G +0.015% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.40%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-09 12:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.43%EV -9.67%E -7.61%K -35.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV +3.50%E +0.389%K +0.438%G +0.015% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.35%EV -7.93%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 13:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -11.09%E -8.87%K -44.36%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV +3.50%E +0.389%K +0.438%G +0.015% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-09 13:21 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.99%EV -10.38%E -8.24%K -39.91%G +0.000% | 8.90I 11.24%NM 10.47%EV +2.35%E +0.264%K +0.298%G +0.007% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV +4.23%E +0.704%K +0.845%G +0.036% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -7.53%E -5.79%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -2.25%E -0.264%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -4.46%E -0.811%K -0.991%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 12:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -7.53%E -5.79%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -2.25%E -0.264%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -8.80%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-09 12:16 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -8.24%E -6.39%K -28.43%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -2.25%E -0.264%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.37%EV -9.67%E -7.61%K -35.80%G +0.000% | 8.21I 12.18%NM 11.35%EV -5.58%E -0.680%K -0.774%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV +5.96%E +0.977%K +1.17%G +0.070% | 7.3% | 2026-09-08 19:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.09%E -8.87%K -44.36%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.03%EV -8.00%E -1.000%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.38%EV -16.62%E -3.46%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-09 13:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 70.94%EV -10.38%E -8.24%K -39.91%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.53%EV -10.87%E -1.40%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.53%EV -11.41%E -2.24%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-09 12:13 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.53%E -5.79%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-08 20:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.53%E -5.79%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-08 20:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.53%E -5.79%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-08 20:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.53%E -5.79%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-08 20:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.53%E -5.79%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-08 20:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.53%E -5.79%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-08 20:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.24%E -6.39%K -28.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-09 12:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.24%E -6.39%K -28.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-09 12:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.24%E -6.39%K -28.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-09 12:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.24%E -6.39%K -28.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-09 12:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.00%EV -9.67%E -7.61%K -35.80%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.14%EV -14.88%E -3.04%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-08 20:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.09%E -8.87%K -44.36%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-09 02:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.33%EV -11.09%E -8.87%K -44.36%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.72%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -14.88%E -3.04%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.33%EV -11.09%E -8.87%K -44.36%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.72%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -14.88%E -3.04%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 70.80%EV -12.51%E -10.17%K -54.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.61%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 17.59%EV -14.01%E -2.83%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-09-09 12:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 70.28%EV -12.51%E -10.17%K -54.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.53%EV -13.75%E -1.83%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.20%EV -17.49%E -3.68%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-09-09 15:16 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.90%EV -9.67%E -7.61%K -35.80%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.42%EV -16.62%E -2.29%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.68%EV -6.20%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-09 12:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 69.68%EV -11.09%E -8.87%K -44.36%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.90%EV -22.37%E -3.31%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.42%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-09-09 12:16 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.74% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.72% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.55% | 2.9% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.75% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.12% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 07:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.75% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.12% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 07:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.75% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.12% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 07:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.59% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.51% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.90% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 12:16 |