The School of Odds
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CSKA Moscow v FC Fakel Voronezh

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 13:15 UTC

Final: CSKA Moscow 1–0 FC Fakel Voronezh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 57.95%1.73fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -6.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.25%58.04%57.95%59.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.611.631.6564.94%62.05%61.54%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit)

Prediction 17.65%5.67fair odd
EV +9.94%
Edge +1.60%
Kelly +1.90%
Growth +0.189%

assuming max odds 6.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.57%17.67%17.65%18.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.575.616.2320.00%17.97%17.84%16.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.40%4.10fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.289%
Kelly -0.383%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.73%24.29%24.40%24.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.883.884.0526.67%25.80%25.81%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 57.95%; FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit): 17.65%; Draw: 24.40%. For FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.67. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.87%EV -6.12%E -3.78%K -9.87%G +0.000%6.23I 16.05%NM 15.57%EV +9.94%E +1.60%K +1.90%G +0.189%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%EV -3.61%E -0.914%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 13:09
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.58%EV -10.76%E -6.99%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.96%EV +1.47%E +0.256%K +0.310%G +0.005%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 13:09
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -4.38%E -2.66%K -6.74%G +0.000%5.66I 17.67%NM 17.07%EV -0.115%E -0.020%K -0.025%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.39%EV -3.37%E -0.850%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 13:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.96%EV -5.54%E -3.40%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.32%EV -2.06%E -0.371%K -0.452%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV -1.17%E -0.289%K -0.383%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 12:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -5.54%E -3.40%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -8.23%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 12:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -7.28%E -4.55%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -11.76%E -2.35%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.