Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC v Casa Pia

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 17:02 UTC

Final: Vitória SC 0–0 Casa Pia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC (Local)

Prediction 64.23%1.56fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -7.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.32%64.06%64.25%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.461.451.5072.46%68.61%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Casa Pia (Visit)

Prediction 13.25%7.55fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.208%
Kelly +0.239%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 7.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.33%13.33%13.29%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.756.757.6716.67%14.81%14.81%13.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.53%4.44fair odd
EV -0.878%
Edge -0.200%
Kelly -0.258%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.23%22.61%22.47%24.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.044.004.4026.67%24.74%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitória SC (Local): 64.23%; Casa Pia (Visit): 13.25%; Draw: 22.53%. For Casa Pia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.55. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.67, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.99%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%7.67I 13.04%NM 12.54%EV +1.60%E +0.208%K +0.239%G +0.004%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.47%EV -3.58%E -0.837%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-06 16:59
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.70%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.77%EV -0.656%E -0.088%K -0.101%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.53%EV -4.26%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-06 16:50
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -0.656%E -0.088%K -0.101%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 16:51
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.43%EV -7.51%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -0.656%E -0.088%K -0.101%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.89%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 16:50
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -8.80%E -6.20%K -20.95%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -0.656%E -0.088%K -0.101%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.76%EV -7.51%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.77%EV -3.31%E -0.453%K -0.525%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.47%EV -6.51%E -1.57%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 16:59
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.48%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.61%EV -3.31%E -0.453%K -0.525%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -13.27%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 16:20
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.48%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.61%EV -3.31%E -0.453%K -0.525%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -13.27%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 16:15
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.21%EV -6.23%E -4.27%K -13.54%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.93%EV -3.97%E -0.547%K -0.635%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 16:53
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.79%EV -8.80%E -6.20%K -20.95%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.98%EV -4.63%E -0.643%K -0.747%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -0.878%E -0.200%K -0.258%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 17:00
GTbets🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.35%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.32%G +0.000%7.05I 14.18%NM 13.48%EV -6.62%E -0.939%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.18%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 12:29
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -3.13%E -0.728%K -0.949%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 16:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.92%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -9.89%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 12:19
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.01%EV -7.51%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.62%EV -2.46%E -0.567%K -0.737%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 16:51
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.91%EV -7.51%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -3.13%E -0.728%K -0.949%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 17:00
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 16:35
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.05%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -11.02%E -2.79%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 12:19
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.66%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV -13.27%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 16:35
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -7.51%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 16:59
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -7.51%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 17:00
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -7.51%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 16:59
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -7.51%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -7.51%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -7.51%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 16:59
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -10.08%E -7.20%K -25.21%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -9.89%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -10.08%E -7.20%K -25.21%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -7.28%E -1.04%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -9.89%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 16:51
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.23%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.83%EV -10.59%E -1.57%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 12:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.57%EV -9.44%E -6.70%K -23.03%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.49%EV -10.59%E -1.57%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.94%EV -6.51%E -1.57%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 16:57
NetBet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.03%EV -10.08%E -7.20%K -25.21%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.28%EV -10.59%E -1.57%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.69%EV -11.02%E -2.79%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.70%EV -11.37%E -8.24%K -29.91%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.53%EV -12.58%E -1.91%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 16:59
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.98%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 05:10
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.63%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 16:30
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.63%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.63%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.63%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 16:30
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.63%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 16:30
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.63%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 12:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 12:29
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 12:29
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 12:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -9.89%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-01 12:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -9.89%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-01 12:30
BetUS🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -4.94%E -3.34%K -10.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -9.89%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 21:20
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.32%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -15.52%E -4.14%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 12:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.07%EV -9.44%E -6.70%K -23.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -13.90%E -2.14%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.72%EV -8.16%E -5.70%K -18.97%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -17.21%E -2.75%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 16:59
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.77%EV -19.20%E -3.15%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.77%EV -19.20%E -3.15%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.77%EV -19.20%E -3.15%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 16:30
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.77%EV -19.20%E -3.15%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 16:30
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.77%EV -19.20%E -3.15%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.77%EV -19.20%E -3.15%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.79%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.93%EV -20.53%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.27%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.79%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.93%EV -20.53%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.27%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.96%EV -7.51%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -20.53%E -3.42%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.17%EV -13.27%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.51I 66.23%NM 65.99%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.14%0.4%2026-09-06 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.51I 66.23%NM 65.99%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.14%0.4%2026-09-06 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.51I 66.23%NM 65.99%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.14%0.4%2026-09-06 17:00
Matchbook1.49I 67.11%NM 66.79%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64%0.5%2026-09-06 17:00
Smarkets1.50I 66.67%NM 66.14%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.05%0.8%2026-09-06 17:00
Kalshi1.47I 68.03%NM 66.69%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.54%2.0%2026-09-06 15:55