L’École des cotes

Tondela v Santa Clara

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-01 15:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Tondela (Local)

Prévision 30.43%3.29cote équitable
EV -0.176%
Avantage -0.054%
Kelly -0.077%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.28

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.57%30.43%30.42%31.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.063.053.2834.72%32.67%32.79%30.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Santa Clara (Visiteur)

Prévision 36.94%2.71cote équitable
EV -0.643%
Avantage -0.239%
Kelly -0.381%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.69

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.43%36.94%36.93%38.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.522.502.6943.48%39.74%40.00%37.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 32.63%3.06cote équitable
EV -2.11%
Avantage -0.703%
Kelly -1.05%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.47%32.63%32.64%34.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.632.852.853.0038.02%35.14%35.09%33.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet3.28I 30.49%NM 29.57%EV -0.176%E -0.054%K -0.077%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.89%EV -5.45%E -2.13%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.55%EV -2.76%E -0.927%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-01 15:24
Pinnacle3.18I 31.45%NM 30.46%EV -3.22%E -1.01%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 36.01%EV -0.643%E -0.239%K -0.381%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.52%EV -5.70%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-01 15:20
Coolbet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.27%EV -4.13%E -1.31%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.40%EV -5.81%E -2.28%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.33%EV -3.74%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-01 14:39
GTbets3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -4.13%E -1.31%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.74%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.31%EV -4.72%E -1.62%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 15:24
Unibet (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -4.13%E -1.31%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 14:39
BetOnline.ag3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -4.13%E -1.31%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -2.12%E -0.800%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -11.90%E -4.41%K -7.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 14:39
LowVig.ag3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -4.13%E -1.31%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -2.12%E -0.800%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -11.90%E -4.41%K -7.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 14:39
Fanatics3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -3.97%E -1.53%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 14:39
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -2.11%E -0.703%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 14:39
DraftKings3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -3.97%E -1.53%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-01 14:39
Svenska Spel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.81%E -2.28%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -6.02%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 15:24
ATG (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.81%E -2.28%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -6.02%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 15:24
Bovada3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -3.97%E -1.53%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 15:23
BetUS3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -3.97%E -1.53%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 15:24
Grosvenor3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -5.81%E -2.28%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 15:25
Casumo3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -5.81%E -2.28%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 15:24
Bally Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -5.81%E -2.28%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 15:24
betPARX3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -5.81%E -2.28%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 15:24
FanDuel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -5.81%E -2.28%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 15:24
Betr (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 14:39
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 15:24
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 15:25
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 15:24
Bet Right3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 14:39
PointsBet (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 14:39
BetMGM3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -5.65%E -1.82%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -9.51%E -3.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-01 15:24
Marathon Bet3.08I 32.47%NM 30.27%EV -6.26%E -2.03%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -5.81%E -2.28%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.18%EV -8.31%E -2.96%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 15:24
Betsson3.05I 32.79%NM 30.64%EV -7.18%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.22%EV -4.71%E -1.82%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.14%EV -7.98%E -2.83%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 15:09
NordicBet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.64%EV -7.18%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.22%EV -4.71%E -1.82%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.14%EV -7.98%E -2.83%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 15:09
Winamax (DE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -7.18%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 14:39
Unibet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.18%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 15:24
Unibet (NL)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.18%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 15:24
TABtouch3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.18%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 15:25
Unibet (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.18%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 15:24
BetRivers3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.18%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 15:22
LeoVegas (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -7.18%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.05%EV -8.40%E -3.39%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-01 15:24
LiveScore Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -7.18%E -2.35%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.05%EV -8.40%E -3.39%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-01 15:24
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -3.97%E -1.53%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-01 15:09
Tipico (DE)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -5.81%E -2.28%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 14:39
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-01 15:24
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -6.02%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 15:20
SportsBet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 15:25
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 15:24
888sport3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 14:39
William Hill3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 14:43
888sport (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 14:44
Mr Green (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 14:44
Parions Sport (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -9.51%E -3.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-01 15:09
Winamax (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -9.51%E -3.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-01 14:40
BoyleSports3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.66%E -3.06%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.27%E -3.73%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-01 15:08
Bet Victor3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -11.35%E -4.73%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -6.02%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-01 14:42
Virgin Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -9.51%E -3.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-01 15:25
PMU (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -9.51%E -3.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.27%E -3.73%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-01 15:24
NetBet (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.10%EV -8.70%E -2.90%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.43%EV -13.20%E -5.62%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.47%EV -6.35%E -2.21%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-01 15:25
Betclic (FR)2.97I 33.67%NM 31.51%EV -9.61%E -3.24%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.99%EV -6.55%E -2.59%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.51%EV -3.09%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-01 14:39
LeoVegas2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -10.22%E -3.46%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.94%EV -10.25%E -4.22%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.64%EV -10.27%E -3.73%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-01 15:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -12.35%E -4.29%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -15.05%E -6.54%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.72%EV -14.18%E -5.39%K -8.70%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-01 15:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%0.7%2026-03-01 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.30%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%0.8%2026-03-01 15:24
Matchbook3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.30%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%0.8%2026-03-01 15:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.34%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.87%1.4%2026-03-01 15:25
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.89%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.68%2.7%2026-03-01 15:25