默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Tondela v Nacional

开赛时间: 2026-04-25 14:30 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型,根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始,因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

58 家博彩公司 (19 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率:四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Tondela (主队)

预测 33.49%2.99公平赔率
EV -1.21%
优势 -0.410%
Kelly -0.620%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.95

博彩公司预测分布
31.69%33.47%33.55%35.42%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.502.732.732.9540.00%36.61%36.70%33.90%最小值均值中位数最大值

Nacional (客队)

预测 38.38%2.61公平赔率
EV +0.933%
优势 +0.355%
Kelly +0.572%
增长率 +0.005%

假设最高赔率为 2.63

博彩公司预测分布
35.69%38.30%38.35%39.14%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.302.472.452.6343.48%40.57%40.82%38.02%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 28.13%3.55公平赔率
EV -1.53%
优势 -0.437%
Kelly -0.612%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.50

博彩公司预测分布
27.10%28.24%28.09%30.16%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.883.273.253.5034.72%30.60%30.77%28.57%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率,四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为:Tondela (主队):33.49%;Nacional (客队):38.38%;平局:28.13%。 对于“Nacional (客队)”,该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.61。 当时有2家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率;最佳赔率为2.63,对应+0.933%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (58 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联,也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV +0.933%E +0.355%K +0.572%G +0.005%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-20 15:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV +0.933%E +0.355%K +0.572%G +0.005%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-20 15:34
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 15:34
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 15:34
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 15:35
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 15:35
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 15:34
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 15:34
GTbets🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -4.89%E -1.72%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.64%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.57%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-22 07:00
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -11.93%E -4.53%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 15:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -11.93%E -4.53%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 15:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -11.93%E -4.53%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 15:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -12.93%E -4.97%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-20 15:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -12.93%E -4.97%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-20 15:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.15%EV -12.93%E -4.97%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -11.38%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-20 15:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.15%EV -12.93%E -4.97%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -11.38%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-20 15:34
1xBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.89%EV -1.21%E -0.410%K -0.620%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.50%EV -3.29%E -1.30%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.62%EV -4.63%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-24 03:40
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.06%E -1.62%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -1.53%E -0.437%K -0.612%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 14:15
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.06%E -1.62%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 17:50
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.61%E -5.73%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -4.06%E -1.62%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-20 15:34
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.37%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -5.75%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 14:30
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -2.88%E -0.995%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 11:24
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 14:33
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 17:44
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 17:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 17:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -1.21%E -0.410%K -0.620%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 15:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 14:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 14:15
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 14:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 14:15
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 17:45
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.90%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -5.75%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-21 14:15
Pinnacle🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.85%EV -2.88%E -0.995%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.05%EV -6.36%E -2.61%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.10%EV -4.63%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 14:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -3.55%E -1.23%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.32%EV -6.36%E -2.61%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -3.55%E -1.23%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.32%EV -6.36%E -2.61%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 33.74%EV -7.24%E -2.61%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.62%EV -7.13%E -2.94%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.65%EV -4.91%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 17:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.84%EV -4.89%E -1.72%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.54%EV -7.13%E -2.94%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.61%EV -8.28%E -2.54%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 03:34
Betsson🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.97%EV -5.56%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.42%EV -7.13%E -2.94%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 16:40
NordicBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.97%EV -5.56%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.42%EV -7.13%E -2.94%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 14:04
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.97%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.99%EV -7.51%E -3.12%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -5.75%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 14:07
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -2.88%E -0.995%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 14:43
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-21 14:15
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-21 14:15
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-21 19:40
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-22 07:08
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:45
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:45
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.57%EV -11.93%E -4.53%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-22 14:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.26%EV -16.28%E -6.51%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.99%EV -8.66%E -3.64%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.74%EV -18.97%E -6.59%K -10.09%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-21 14:15
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -9.81%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 14:05
Everygame🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -9.81%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 05:53
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -9.81%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -5.75%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-21 17:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -9.81%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -5.75%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-21 17:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -9.81%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-23 09:39
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -11.73%E -5.10%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-21 14:04
利润率 = 利润率(超额概率) · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间,因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变,并不代表数据已经失效。通常,约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除;只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时,才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (6)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Matchbook3.00I 33.33%NM 32.81%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.06%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13%1.6%2026-04-23 16:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.04%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%3.7%2026-04-24 02:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.04%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%3.7%2026-04-24 02:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.04%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%3.7%2026-04-24 02:35
Smarkets2.92I 34.25%NM 32.94%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.78%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.29%4.0%2026-04-24 03:05
Kalshi2.94I 34.01%NM 32.39%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.02%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%5.0%2026-04-24 00:35