L’École des cotes

Tondela v Nacional

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-25 14:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Tondela (Local)

Prévision 33.49%2.99cote équitable
EV -1.21%
Avantage -0.410%
Kelly -0.620%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.69%33.47%33.55%35.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.502.732.732.9540.00%36.61%36.70%33.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Nacional (Visiteur)

Prévision 38.38%2.61cote équitable
EV +0.933%
Avantage +0.355%
Kelly +0.572%
Croissance +0.005%

avec la cote maximale 2.63

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.69%38.30%38.35%39.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.472.452.6343.48%40.57%40.82%38.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.13%3.55cote équitable
EV -1.53%
Avantage -0.437%
Kelly -0.612%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.10%28.24%28.09%30.16%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.273.253.5034.72%30.60%30.77%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV +0.933%E +0.355%K +0.572%G +0.005%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-20 15:34
Svenska Spel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV +0.933%E +0.355%K +0.572%G +0.005%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-20 15:34
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 15:34
Grosvenor2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 15:34
betPARX2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 15:35
Bally Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 15:35
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 15:34
TABtouch2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -0.218%E -0.084%K -0.136%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 15:34
GTbets2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -4.89%E -1.72%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.64%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.57%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-22 07:00
Unibet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -11.93%E -4.53%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 15:34
Unibet (NL)2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -11.93%E -4.53%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 15:34
Unibet (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -11.93%E -4.53%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 15:34
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -12.93%E -4.97%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-20 15:34
LiveScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -12.93%E -4.97%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-20 15:34
Virgin Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.15%EV -12.93%E -4.97%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -11.38%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-20 15:34
PMU (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.15%EV -12.93%E -4.97%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -2.14%E -0.838%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -11.38%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-20 15:34
1xBet2.95I 33.90%NM 32.89%EV -1.21%E -0.410%K -0.620%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.50%EV -3.29%E -1.30%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.62%EV -4.63%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-24 03:40
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.06%E -1.62%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -1.53%E -0.437%K -0.612%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 14:15
Coral2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.06%E -1.62%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 17:50
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.61%E -5.73%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -4.06%E -1.62%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-20 15:34
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.37%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -5.75%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 14:30
BetUS2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -2.88%E -0.995%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 11:24
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 14:33
Ladbrokes (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 17:44
Neds2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 17:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 17:45
Tipico (DE)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -1.21%E -0.410%K -0.620%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 15:25
Unibet (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 14:35
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 14:15
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 14:34
PointsBet (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 14:15
BetMGM2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 17:45
Bet Right2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.90%EV -5.97%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -5.75%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-21 14:15
Pinnacle2.90I 34.48%NM 32.85%EV -2.88%E -0.995%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.05%EV -6.36%E -2.61%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.10%EV -4.63%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 14:20
LowVig.ag2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -3.55%E -1.23%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.32%EV -6.36%E -2.61%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:24
BetOnline.ag2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -3.55%E -1.23%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.32%EV -6.36%E -2.61%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:24
Betclic (FR)2.77I 36.10%NM 33.74%EV -7.24%E -2.61%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.62%EV -7.13%E -2.94%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.65%EV -4.91%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 17:24
Marathon Bet2.84I 35.21%NM 32.84%EV -4.89%E -1.72%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.54%EV -7.13%E -2.94%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.61%EV -8.28%E -2.54%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 03:34
Betsson2.82I 35.46%NM 32.97%EV -5.56%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.42%EV -7.13%E -2.94%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 16:40
NordicBet2.82I 35.46%NM 32.97%EV -5.56%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.42%EV -7.13%E -2.94%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 14:04
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 32.97%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.99%EV -7.51%E -3.12%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -5.75%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 14:07
Fanatics2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -2.88%E -0.995%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 14:43
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-21 14:15
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-21 14:15
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-21 19:40
Bet Victor2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-22 07:08
888sport2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:44
Mr Green (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:44
888sport (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:45
William Hill2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 17:45
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 34.57%EV -11.93%E -4.53%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -7.89%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-22 14:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.26%EV -16.28%E -6.51%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.99%EV -8.66%E -3.64%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.74%EV -18.97%E -6.59%K -10.09%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-21 14:15
PlayUp2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -9.81%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 14:05
Everygame2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -9.81%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-22 05:53
Winamax (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -9.81%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -5.75%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-21 17:44
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -9.81%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -5.75%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-21 17:45
NetBet (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -9.81%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-23 09:39
BoyleSports2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -9.58%E -3.55%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -11.73%E -5.10%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -8.56%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-21 14:04
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook3.00I 33.33%NM 32.81%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.06%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13%1.6%2026-04-23 16:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.04%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%3.7%2026-04-24 02:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.04%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%3.7%2026-04-24 02:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.04%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%3.7%2026-04-24 02:35
Smarkets2.92I 34.25%NM 32.94%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.78%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.29%4.0%2026-04-24 03:05
Kalshi2.94I 34.01%NM 32.39%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.02%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%5.0%2026-04-24 00:35