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Tondela v Nacional

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tondela (Local)

Prediction 34.44%2.90fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.38%34.44%34.44%35.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.752.752.8038.02%36.34%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nacional (Visit)

Prediction 37.19%2.69fair odd
EV -7.03%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -4.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.02%37.19%37.19%37.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.472.482.5041.67%40.42%40.32%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.37%3.52fair odd
EV -5.52%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.79%28.37%28.37%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.213.203.3332.26%31.12%31.25%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tondela (Local): 34.44%; Nacional (Visit): 37.19%; Draw: 28.37%. For Tondela (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -3.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -3.57%E -1.27%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.79%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 00:20
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -3.57%E -1.27%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.79%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 00:20
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -3.57%E -1.27%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.79%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 00:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -3.57%E -1.27%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.79%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 00:20
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -3.57%E -1.27%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.79%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -3.57%E -1.27%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.79%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 00:25
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -5.29%E -1.92%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.36%EV -7.77%E -3.13%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 00:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -5.29%E -1.92%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.36%EV -7.77%E -3.13%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 00:20
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -5.29%E -1.92%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.36%EV -7.77%E -3.13%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 00:20
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -5.29%E -1.92%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.36%EV -7.77%E -3.13%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -5.29%E -1.92%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.36%EV -7.77%E -3.13%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -5.29%E -1.92%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.89%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 00:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -5.29%E -1.92%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.89%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -9.21%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 00:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.43%EV -9.63%E -3.96%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.63%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 00:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.43%EV -9.63%E -3.96%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.63%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 00:20
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -10.75%E -4.48%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -12.05%E -3.89%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-19 00:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.19%EV -9.42%E -3.58%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.79%EV -5.52%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 14:51
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.