L’École des cotes

Tondela v Gil Vicente

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-13 19:15 UTC

Score final : Tondela 2–2 Gil Vicente

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Tondela (Local)

Prévision 22.56%4.43cote équitable
EV +1.74%
Avantage +0.385%
Kelly +0.495%
Croissance +0.009%

avec la cote maximale 4.51

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.15%22.58%22.62%24.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.704.094.004.5127.03%24.48%25.00%22.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Gil Vicente (Visiteur)

Prévision 49.31%2.03cote équitable
EV -3.84%
Avantage -1.97%
Kelly -4.05%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.02%49.31%49.29%50.75%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.731.891.901.9557.80%52.98%52.77%51.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.13%3.55cote équitable
EV -1.26%
Avantage -0.359%
Kelly -0.502%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.51

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.21%28.11%28.09%29.29%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.293.303.5133.33%30.43%30.30%28.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle4.51I 22.17%NM 21.44%EV +1.74%E +0.385%K +0.495%G +0.009%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.11%EV -4.83%E -2.50%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.45%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-13 19:05
1xBet4.48I 22.32%NM 21.64%EV +1.06%E +0.237%K +0.305%G +0.003%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.75%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.62%EV -1.26%E -0.359%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-13 19:05
Tipico (DE)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -0.744%E -0.169%K -0.219%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-13 18:55
FanDuel4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -0.744%E -0.169%K -0.219%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.77%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 19:10
Bovada4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -1.87%E -0.430%K -0.559%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.82%EV -6.80%E -3.60%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-13 18:59
Everygame4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -2.32%E -0.537%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 19:10
Paddy Power4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -2.32%E -0.537%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.60%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-13 19:10
SportsBet4.33I 23.09%NM 21.36%EV -2.32%E -0.537%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.73%EV -8.28%E -4.45%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.91%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 19:10
DraftKings4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -3.00%E -0.698%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-13 18:50
Fanatics4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -3.00%E -0.698%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-13 18:40
BetUS4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -3.00%E -0.698%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.74%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 19:05
Marathon Bet4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%EV -4.13%E -0.971%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -7.30%E -3.88%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.44%EV -7.73%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-13 19:05
GTbets4.22I 23.70%NM 21.99%EV -4.80%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.63%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.38%EV -8.01%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-13 19:00
Coolbet4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -3.84%E -1.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-13 18:58
Coral4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.99%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -1.54%E -0.441%K -0.617%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-13 18:49
Unibet (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -7.30%E -3.88%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-13 18:49
Betclic (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -5.20%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-13 18:55
BoyleSports4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -9.76%E -5.33%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-13 19:09
Sky Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -12.79%E -4.13%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-13 19:10
Betsson4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -6.38%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.70%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-13 18:50
NordicBet4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -6.38%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.70%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-13 18:50
Svenska Spel4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -7.51%E -1.83%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.86%EV -4.83%E -2.50%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-13 18:40
ATG (SE)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -7.51%E -1.83%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.86%EV -4.83%E -2.50%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-13 18:40
Neds4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-13 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-13 18:49
Ladbrokes (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-13 18:50
Betr (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -6.31%E -3.32%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-13 19:00
Casumo4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-13 18:40
Grosvenor4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-13 18:40
Bally Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-13 18:40
betPARX4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-13 18:40
TABtouch4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-13 18:40
BetRivers4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-13 18:40
BetMGM4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-13 18:49
PlayUp4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 18:55
888sport4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 18:50
William Hill4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 19:10
888sport (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 18:50
Mr Green (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 19:09
LiveScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.68%EV -6.80%E -3.60%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-13 18:40
Unibet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.68%EV -6.80%E -3.60%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-13 18:40
Unibet (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.68%EV -6.80%E -3.60%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-13 18:40
Unibet (NL)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.68%EV -6.80%E -3.60%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-13 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.82%EV -7.30%E -3.88%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 18:40
Bet Victor4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-13 18:55
BetOnline.ag4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -11.39%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-13 18:03
LowVig.ag4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -11.39%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-13 18:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 49.77%EV -14.69%E -8.49%K -20.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%EV -15.61%E -5.20%K -7.80%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-13 19:10
Bet Right3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -10.90%E -2.76%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 19:00
PMU (FR)3.95I 25.32%NM 23.01%EV -10.90%E -2.76%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.60%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-13 18:05
Virgin Bet3.95I 25.32%NM 23.01%EV -10.90%E -2.76%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.60%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-13 18:05
NetBet (FR)3.95I 25.32%NM 22.90%EV -10.90%E -2.76%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.70%EV -10.25%E -5.63%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-13 19:09
PointsBet (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -12.02%E -3.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-13 19:00
Winamax (DE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -12.02%E -3.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.01%EV -8.28%E -4.45%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-13 18:49
LeoVegas3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -12.02%E -3.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-13 18:40
Betway3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.28%E -3.76%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 19:05
betfred_uk3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -6.31%E -3.32%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-13 19:00
Winamax (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%EV -16.53%E -4.47%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.80%EV -11.24%E -6.24%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.45%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-13 18:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook4.70I 21.28%NM 21.26%1.99I 50.25%NM 50.20%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.54%0.1%2026-04-13 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.20%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.33%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47%0.4%2026-04-13 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.25%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-04-13 19:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.25%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-04-13 19:10
Kalshi5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-04-13 18:35
Smarkets4.60I 21.74%NM 21.22%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.06%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.71%2.4%2026-04-13 19:10