La escuela de los momios

Tondela v Gil Vicente

Inicio: 2026-04-13 19:15 UTC

Final: Tondela 2–2 Gil Vicente

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Tondela (Local)

Predicción 22.56%4.43momio equitativo
EV +1.74%
Ventaja +0.385%
Kelly +0.495%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.15%22.58%22.62%24.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.704.094.004.5127.03%24.48%25.00%22.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Gil Vicente (Visitante)

Predicción 49.31%2.03momio equitativo
EV -3.84%
Ventaja -1.97%
Kelly -4.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.02%49.31%49.29%50.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.731.891.901.9557.80%52.98%52.77%51.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.13%3.55momio equitativo
EV -1.26%
Ventaja -0.359%
Kelly -0.502%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.21%28.11%28.09%29.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.293.303.5133.33%30.43%30.30%28.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle4.51I 22.17%NM 21.44%EV +1.74%E +0.385%K +0.495%G +0.009%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.11%EV -4.83%E -2.50%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.45%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-13 19:05
1xBet4.48I 22.32%NM 21.64%EV +1.06%E +0.237%K +0.305%G +0.003%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.75%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.62%EV -1.26%E -0.359%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-13 19:05
Tipico (DE)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -0.744%E -0.169%K -0.219%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-13 18:55
FanDuel4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -0.744%E -0.169%K -0.219%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.77%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 19:10
Bovada4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -1.87%E -0.430%K -0.559%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.82%EV -6.80%E -3.60%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-13 18:59
Everygame4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -2.32%E -0.537%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 19:10
Paddy Power4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -2.32%E -0.537%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.60%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-13 19:10
SportsBet4.33I 23.09%NM 21.36%EV -2.32%E -0.537%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.73%EV -8.28%E -4.45%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.91%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 19:10
DraftKings4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -3.00%E -0.698%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-13 18:50
Fanatics4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -3.00%E -0.698%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-13 18:40
BetUS4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -3.00%E -0.698%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.74%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 19:05
Marathon Bet4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%EV -4.13%E -0.971%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -7.30%E -3.88%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.44%EV -7.73%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-13 19:05
GTbets4.22I 23.70%NM 21.99%EV -4.80%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.63%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.38%EV -8.01%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-13 19:00
Coolbet4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -3.84%E -1.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.14%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-13 18:58
Coral4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.99%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -1.54%E -0.441%K -0.617%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-13 18:49
Unibet (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -7.30%E -3.88%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-13 18:49
Betclic (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -5.20%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-13 18:55
BoyleSports4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -9.76%E -5.33%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-13 19:09
Sky Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -5.26%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -12.79%E -4.13%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-13 19:10
Betsson4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -6.38%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.70%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-13 18:50
NordicBet4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -6.38%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.70%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-13 18:50
Svenska Spel4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -7.51%E -1.83%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.86%EV -4.83%E -2.50%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-13 18:40
ATG (SE)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -7.51%E -1.83%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.86%EV -4.83%E -2.50%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-13 18:40
Neds4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-13 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-13 18:49
Ladbrokes (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-13 18:50
Betr (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -6.31%E -3.32%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-13 19:00
Casumo4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-13 18:40
Grosvenor4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-13 18:40
Bally Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-13 18:40
betPARX4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-13 18:40
TABtouch4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-13 18:40
BetRivers4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-13 18:40
BetMGM4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-13 18:49
PlayUp4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 18:55
888sport4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 18:50
William Hill4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 19:10
888sport (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 18:50
Mr Green (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 19:09
LiveScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.68%EV -6.80%E -3.60%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-13 18:40
Unibet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.68%EV -6.80%E -3.60%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-13 18:40
Unibet (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.68%EV -6.80%E -3.60%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-13 18:40
Unibet (NL)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.68%EV -6.80%E -3.60%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-13 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.82%EV -7.30%E -3.88%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 18:40
Bet Victor4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-13 18:55
BetOnline.ag4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -11.39%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-13 18:03
LowVig.ag4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -11.39%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-13 18:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -9.77%E -2.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 49.77%EV -14.69%E -8.49%K -20.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%EV -15.61%E -5.20%K -7.80%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-13 19:10
Bet Right3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -10.90%E -2.76%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 19:00
PMU (FR)3.95I 25.32%NM 23.01%EV -10.90%E -2.76%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.60%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-13 18:05
Virgin Bet3.95I 25.32%NM 23.01%EV -10.90%E -2.76%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.60%EV -7.79%E -4.16%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-13 18:05
NetBet (FR)3.95I 25.32%NM 22.90%EV -10.90%E -2.76%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.70%EV -10.25%E -5.63%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-13 19:09
PointsBet (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -12.02%E -3.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-13 19:00
Winamax (DE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -12.02%E -3.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.01%EV -8.28%E -4.45%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-13 18:49
LeoVegas3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -12.02%E -3.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-13 18:40
Betway3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -14.28%E -3.76%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.82%E -3.04%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-13 19:05
betfred_uk3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -15.41%E -4.11%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -6.31%E -3.32%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-13 19:00
Winamax (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%EV -16.53%E -4.47%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.80%EV -11.24%E -6.24%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.45%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-13 18:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook4.70I 21.28%NM 21.26%1.99I 50.25%NM 50.20%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.54%0.1%2026-04-13 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.20%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.33%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47%0.4%2026-04-13 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.25%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-04-13 19:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.25%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-04-13 19:10
Kalshi5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-04-13 18:35
Smarkets4.60I 21.74%NM 21.22%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.06%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.71%2.4%2026-04-13 19:10