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Sporting Lisbon v Tondela
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sporting Lisbon (Local)
Prediction 82.21%1.22fair odd
EV -5.45%
Edge -4.74%
Kelly -36.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.83%82.88%82.27%90.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.111.131.1596.15%90.17%88.50%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tondela (Visit)
Prediction 4.93%20.29fair odd
EV +274.50%
Edge +3.61%
Kelly +3.66%
Growth +10.05%
assuming max odds 76.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.27%4.61%4.75%6.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0031.9421.0076.006.67%3.13%4.76%1.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.86%7.78fair odd
EV +67.16%
Edge +5.17%
Kelly +5.60%
Growth +3.76%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.27%12.51%12.99%14.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.408.467.5013.0015.63%11.82%13.33%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 82.21%; Tondela (Visit): 4.93%; Draw: 12.86%. For Tondela (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.29. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 76.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +274.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.72%EV -12.85%E -12.13%K -214.22%G +0.000% | 76.00I 1.32%NM 1.27%EV +274.50%E +3.61%K +3.66%G +10.05% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.01%EV +54.30%E +4.52%K +4.94%G +2.68% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.07%EV -13.68%E -13.02%K -273.50%G +0.000% | 71.00I 1.41%NM 1.33%EV +249.86%E +3.52%K +3.57%G +8.92% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +41.44%E +3.77%K +4.14%G +1.72% | 5.7% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.51%EV -13.68%E -13.02%K -273.50%G +0.000% | 61.00I 1.64%NM 1.54%EV +200.59%E +3.29%K +3.34%G +6.71% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV +35.01%E +3.33%K +3.69%G +1.29% | 6.4% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.05%EV -14.50%E -13.94%K -362.43%G +0.000% | 55.00I 1.82%NM 1.68%EV +171.02%E +3.11%K +3.17%G +5.42% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +28.58%E +2.86%K +3.18%G +0.908% | 8.0% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.88%EV -14.50%E -13.94%K -362.43%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.85%EV +151.31%E +2.97%K +3.03%G +4.58% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV +67.16%E +5.17%K +5.60%G +3.76% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 16:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.75%EV -12.85%E -12.13%K -214.22%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.84%EV +151.31%E +2.97%K +3.03%G +4.58% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +28.58%E +2.86%K +3.18%G +0.908% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 16:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.47%EV -9.56%E -8.69%K -95.64%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV +13.34%E +0.580%K +0.606%G +0.081% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +15.72%E +1.75%K +1.97%G +0.309% | 6.4% | 2026-03-14 17:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.48%EV -5.45%E -4.74%K -36.36%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.42%EV +8.41%E +0.382%K +0.400%G +0.034% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 11.10%EV +12.51%E +1.43%K +1.61%G +0.202% | 2.9% | 2026-03-09 15:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.45%E -4.74%K -36.36%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +3.48%E +0.166%K +0.174%G +0.006% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -9.99%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 18:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.28%E -5.51%K -44.83%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +3.48%E +0.166%K +0.174%G +0.006% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -9.99%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 18:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.28%E -5.51%K -44.83%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +3.48%E +0.166%K +0.174%G +0.006% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -9.99%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 18:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.28%E -5.51%K -44.83%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +3.48%E +0.166%K +0.174%G +0.006% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -9.99%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 18:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -7.92%E -7.07%K -66.00%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +3.48%E +0.166%K +0.174%G +0.006% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.19%EV -9.99%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-13 17:22 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.83%EV -5.45%E -4.74%K -36.36%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV -1.45%E -0.072%K -0.076%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.52%EV -17.71%E -2.77%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-13 12:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.83%EV -5.45%E -4.74%K -36.36%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV -1.45%E -0.072%K -0.076%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.52%EV -17.71%E -2.77%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-13 12:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.08%EV -6.28%E -5.51%K -44.83%G +0.000% | 19.75I 5.06%NM 4.74%EV -2.68%E -0.136%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.18%EV -8.71%E -1.23%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 08:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -8.74%E -7.88%K -79.47%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -16.23%E -0.955%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -3.56%E -0.475%K -0.548%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-14 00:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.71%EV -8.74%E -7.88%K -79.47%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -16.23%E -0.955%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -9.99%E -1.43%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-12 09:23 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -6.28%E -5.51%K -44.83%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -26.09%E -1.74%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV +2.86%E +0.358%K +0.409%G +0.012% | 6.9% | 2026-03-14 15:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.28%E -5.51%K -44.83%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -26.09%E -1.74%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -3.56%E -0.475%K -0.548%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-12 09:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19% | 186.7% | 2026-03-10 18:02 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19% | 186.7% | 2026-03-10 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42% | 187.7% | 2026-03-09 16:35 |