The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Sporting Lisbon v Nacional

2026-09-04 19:15 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Prediction 78.12%1.28fair odd
EV -7.04%
Edge -5.91%
Kelly -37.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.76%78.12%78.12%78.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.171.161.1988.50%85.74%86.21%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nacional (Visit)

Prediction 7.14%14.01fair odd
EV -0.037%
Edge -0.003%
Kelly -0.003%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.70%7.14%7.14%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5012.8913.0014.0010.53%7.76%7.69%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.74%6.78fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -0.644%
Kelly -0.761%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.44%14.74%14.74%15.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.206.106.5017.54%16.14%16.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 78.12%; Nacional (Visit): 7.14%; Draw: 14.74%. For Nacional (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.01. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 14.00, with an expected value of -0.037%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -7.04%E -5.91%K -37.04%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -0.037%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.18%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-28 19:21
Casumo🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -7.04%E -5.91%K -37.04%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -0.037%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.18%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-28 19:25
Grosvenor🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -7.04%E -5.91%K -37.04%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -0.037%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.18%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-28 19:25
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -7.04%E -5.91%K -37.04%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -0.037%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.18%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-28 19:25
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -7.04%E -5.91%K -37.04%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -0.037%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.18%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-28 19:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -7.04%E -5.91%K -37.04%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -0.037%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.18%E -0.644%K -0.761%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-28 19:25
BetRivers🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -8.60%E -7.35%K -50.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -7.18%E -0.552%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.96%EV -10.08%E -1.65%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 19:25
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -8.60%E -7.35%K -50.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -7.18%E -0.552%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.96%EV -10.08%E -1.65%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 19:26
PMU (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -8.60%E -7.35%K -50.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -7.18%E -0.552%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.96%EV -10.08%E -1.65%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.22%EV -9.38%E -8.09%K -58.64%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -10.75%E -0.860%K -0.935%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -7.87%E -1.26%K -1.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-28 19:25
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.16%EV -9.38%E -8.09%K -58.64%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -7.18%E -0.552%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -10.08%E -1.65%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-28 19:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.16%EV -9.38%E -8.09%K -58.64%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -7.18%E -0.552%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -10.08%E -1.65%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-28 19:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.16%EV -9.38%E -8.09%K -58.64%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -7.18%E -0.552%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -10.08%E -1.65%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-28 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -10.16%E -8.84%K -67.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -7.18%E -0.552%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -10.08%E -1.65%K -1.98%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-28 19:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -10.16%E -8.84%K -67.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -7.18%E -0.552%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -10.08%E -1.65%K -1.98%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-28 19:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -10.16%E -8.84%K -67.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -7.18%E -0.552%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -10.08%E -1.65%K -1.98%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-28 19:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 76.53%EV -10.16%E -8.84%K -67.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV -28.60%E -2.86%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -11.55%E -1.93%K -2.31%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-28 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 75.76%EV -10.94%E -9.60%K -78.17%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.09%EV -32.17%E -3.39%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.15%EV -15.98%E -2.80%K -3.40%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-28 19:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 77.78%EV -11.73%E -10.38%K -90.20%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.32%EV -14.32%E -1.19%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.90%EV -13.03%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-28 19:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.84%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.69%2.3%2026-08-28 20:05