The School of Odds
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Santa Clara v Rio Ave FC

2026-09-06 14:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santa Clara (Local)

Prediction 48.55%2.06fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.61%48.55%48.55%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.921.932.0056.82%52.10%51.81%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rio Ave FC (Visit)

Prediction 23.31%4.29fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.18%23.31%23.31%24.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.773.704.1027.40%26.54%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.13%3.55fair odd
EV -7.15%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -3.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.39%28.13%28.13%29.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.173.153.3032.79%31.54%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Santa Clara (Local): 48.55%; Rio Ave FC (Visit): 23.31%; Draw: 28.13%. For Santa Clara (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.00, with an expected value of -2.89%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -2.89%E -1.45%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -10.25%E -2.66%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -8.56%E -2.63%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:35
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -2.89%E -1.45%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -10.25%E -2.66%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -8.56%E -2.63%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -2.89%E -1.45%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -10.25%E -2.66%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -8.56%E -2.63%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:35
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -2.89%E -1.45%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -10.25%E -2.66%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -8.56%E -2.63%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -2.89%E -1.45%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -10.25%E -2.66%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -8.56%E -2.63%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:35
Bally Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -2.89%E -1.45%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -10.25%E -2.66%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -8.56%E -2.63%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:35
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.85%EV -6.29%E -3.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -13.74%E -3.71%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -11.38%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 14:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.85%EV -6.29%E -3.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -13.74%E -3.71%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -11.38%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 14:35
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.85%EV -6.29%E -3.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -13.74%E -3.71%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -11.38%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 14:35
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.64%EV -6.29%E -3.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -13.74%E -3.71%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 14:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.64%EV -6.29%E -3.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -13.74%E -3.71%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.64%EV -6.29%E -3.26%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -13.74%E -3.71%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.61%EV -6.78%E -3.53%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -14.91%E -4.09%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 14:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.61%EV -6.78%E -3.53%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -14.91%E -4.09%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 14:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.61%EV -6.78%E -3.53%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -14.91%E -4.09%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -12.78%E -4.12%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 14:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.25%EV -12.12%E -6.70%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -4.42%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -7.15%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 14:33
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.24%EV -13.58%E -7.63%K -17.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -12.58%E -3.35%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.39%EV -9.97%E -3.12%K -4.53%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-30 14:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.73%EV -13.58%E -7.63%K -17.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.83%EV -11.41%E -3.00%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.44%EV -14.19%E -4.65%K -6.92%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-30 14:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.15%EV -14.55%E -8.27%K -19.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.38%EV -13.74%E -3.71%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.46%EV -11.38%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-30 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 47.17%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.33%6.0%2026-08-30 19:00