L’École des cotes

Santa Clara v Nacional

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-11 19:15 UTC

Score final : Santa Clara 2–0 Nacional

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Santa Clara (Local)

Prévision 37.41%2.67cote équitable
EV -1.24%
Avantage -0.471%
Kelly -0.759%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.64

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.15%37.38%37.59%38.85%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.332.472.502.6442.92%40.44%40.00%37.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Nacional (Visiteur)

Prévision 32.10%3.12cote équitable
EV -0.487%
Avantage -0.157%
Kelly -0.232%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.08%32.23%31.89%34.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.502.882.903.1040.00%34.67%34.48%32.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 30.49%3.28cote équitable
EV +0.623%
Avantage +0.189%
Kelly +0.271%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 3.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.50%30.39%30.51%31.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.063.093.3034.72%32.64%32.36%30.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.17%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.91%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.92%EV +0.623%E +0.189%K +0.271%G +0.002%4.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -8.35%E -3.41%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -2.43%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -8.35%E -3.41%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -2.43%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:34
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -8.35%E -3.41%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -2.43%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:35
betfred_uk2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -2.43%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 18:34
Bet Victor2.38I 42.02%NM 38.33%EV -10.97%E -4.61%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -2.43%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:34
Casumo2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Grosvenor2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:35
ATG (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Svenska Spel2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Bally Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
betPARX2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-11 18:34
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-11 18:35
DraftKings2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.74%E -1.05%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.74%E -1.05%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:34
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.74%E -1.05%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.74%E -1.05%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:34
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -4.61%E -1.81%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Unibet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:34
Unibet (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Unibet (NL)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:35
TABtouch2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:35
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -10.97%E -4.61%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:35
LiveScore Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -10.97%E -4.61%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-11 18:35
Pinnacle2.56I 39.06%NM 37.64%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.08%EV -0.487%E -0.157%K -0.232%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.28%EV -6.09%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-11 18:35
1xBet2.64I 37.88%NM 36.73%EV -1.24%E -0.471%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.69%EV -1.77%E -0.579%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.58%EV -6.39%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-11 18:35
GTbets2.61I 38.31%NM 36.29%EV -2.37%E -0.907%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.66%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-11 18:19
BetOnline.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 37.43%EV -5.73%E -2.28%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -4.34%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 18:34
LowVig.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 37.43%EV -5.73%E -2.28%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -4.34%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 18:34
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -12.09%E -5.15%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -12.09%E -5.15%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -12.09%E -5.15%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-11 18:34
LeoVegas2.33I 42.92%NM 38.74%EV -12.84%E -5.51%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.59%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-11 18:34
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -4.61%E -1.81%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:33
Bovada2.53I 39.53%NM 37.02%EV -5.36%E -2.12%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:33
BetUS2.53I 39.53%NM 37.02%EV -5.36%E -2.12%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Tipico (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -0.487%E -0.157%K -0.232%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:34
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.52%EV -4.61%E -1.81%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.44%EV -7.87%E -2.74%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.04%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:34
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 18:14
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 18:34
Betclic (FR)2.57I 38.91%NM 35.15%EV -3.86%E -1.50%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -16.54%E -6.36%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-11 18:30
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -10.97%E -4.61%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-11 18:34
NordicBet2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -5.73%E -2.28%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -4.34%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -9.13%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Betsson2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -5.73%E -2.28%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -4.34%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -9.13%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Marathon Bet2.53I 39.53%NM 36.87%EV -5.36%E -2.12%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.51%EV -9.74%E -3.29%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -10.05%E -3.41%K -5.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:34
NetBet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.16%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.96%EV -10.96%E -3.75%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-11 18:34
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-11 18:35
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-11 18:34
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-11 18:35
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.80%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.37%EV -19.75%E -7.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.83%EV -12.18%E -4.23%K -6.48%G +0.000%16.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%0.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%0.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%0.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Matchbook2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%0.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.69%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.69%1.1%2026-05-11 18:20
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 37.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.32%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.32%1.4%2026-05-11 18:35