La escuela de los momios

Santa Clara v Nacional

Inicio: 2026-05-11 19:15 UTC

Final: Santa Clara 2–0 Nacional

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Santa Clara (Local)

Predicción 37.41%2.67momio equitativo
EV -1.24%
Ventaja -0.471%
Kelly -0.759%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.15%37.38%37.59%38.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.332.472.502.6442.92%40.44%40.00%37.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Nacional (Visitante)

Predicción 32.10%3.12momio equitativo
EV -0.487%
Ventaja -0.157%
Kelly -0.232%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.08%32.23%31.89%34.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.882.903.1040.00%34.67%34.48%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.49%3.28momio equitativo
EV +0.623%
Ventaja +0.189%
Kelly +0.271%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.50%30.39%30.51%31.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.063.093.3034.72%32.64%32.36%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.17%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.91%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.92%EV +0.623%E +0.189%K +0.271%G +0.002%4.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -8.35%E -3.41%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -2.43%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -8.35%E -3.41%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -2.43%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:34
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -8.35%E -3.41%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -2.43%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:35
betfred_uk2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -2.43%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 18:34
Bet Victor2.38I 42.02%NM 38.33%EV -10.97%E -4.61%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -2.43%E -0.758%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:34
Casumo2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Grosvenor2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:35
ATG (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Svenska Spel2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Bally Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
betPARX2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -9.10%E -3.74%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-11 18:34
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-11 18:35
DraftKings2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.74%E -1.05%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.74%E -1.05%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:34
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.74%E -1.05%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.74%E -1.05%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:34
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -4.61%E -1.81%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Unibet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:34
Unibet (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Unibet (NL)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:35
TABtouch2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:35
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -10.97%E -4.61%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:35
LiveScore Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -10.97%E -4.61%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -5.48%E -1.77%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-11 18:35
Pinnacle2.56I 39.06%NM 37.64%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.08%EV -0.487%E -0.157%K -0.232%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.28%EV -6.09%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-11 18:35
1xBet2.64I 37.88%NM 36.73%EV -1.24%E -0.471%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.69%EV -1.77%E -0.579%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.58%EV -6.39%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-11 18:35
GTbets2.61I 38.31%NM 36.29%EV -2.37%E -0.907%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.66%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-11 18:19
BetOnline.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 37.43%EV -5.73%E -2.28%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -4.34%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 18:34
LowVig.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 37.43%EV -5.73%E -2.28%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -4.34%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 18:34
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -12.09%E -5.15%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -12.09%E -5.15%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -12.09%E -5.15%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-11 18:34
LeoVegas2.33I 42.92%NM 38.74%EV -12.84%E -5.51%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.59%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-11 18:34
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -4.61%E -1.81%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:33
Bovada2.53I 39.53%NM 37.02%EV -5.36%E -2.12%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:33
BetUS2.53I 39.53%NM 37.02%EV -5.36%E -2.12%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Tipico (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -0.487%E -0.157%K -0.232%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:34
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.52%EV -4.61%E -1.81%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.44%EV -7.87%E -2.74%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.04%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:34
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 18:14
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 18:34
Betclic (FR)2.57I 38.91%NM 35.15%EV -3.86%E -1.50%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -16.54%E -6.36%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-11 18:30
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -10.97%E -4.61%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-11 18:34
NordicBet2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -5.73%E -2.28%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -4.34%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -9.13%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Betsson2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -5.73%E -2.28%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -4.34%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -9.13%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Marathon Bet2.53I 39.53%NM 36.87%EV -5.36%E -2.12%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.51%EV -9.74%E -3.29%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -10.05%E -3.41%K -5.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:34
NetBet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.16%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.96%EV -10.96%E -3.75%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-11 18:34
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-11 18:35
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-11 18:34
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-11 18:35
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.48%E -2.59%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.80%EV -10.22%E -4.26%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.37%EV -19.75%E -7.90%K -13.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.83%EV -12.18%E -4.23%K -6.48%G +0.000%16.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%0.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%0.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%0.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Matchbook2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.13%0.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.69%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.69%1.1%2026-05-11 18:20
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 37.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.32%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.32%1.4%2026-05-11 18:35