Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.90
assuming max odds 2.88
assuming max odds 3.10
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santa Clara (Local): 33.60%; Famalicão (Visit): 34.81%; Draw: 31.59%. For Famalicão (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.252%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.03%EV -11.64%E -4.43%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.90%EV +0.252%E +0.088%K +0.134%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -3.64%E -1.19%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.03%EV -11.64%E -4.43%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.90%EV +0.252%E +0.088%K +0.134%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -3.64%E -1.19%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.03%EV -11.64%E -4.43%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.90%EV +0.252%E +0.088%K +0.134%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -3.64%E -1.19%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.03%EV -11.64%E -4.43%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.90%EV +0.252%E +0.088%K +0.134%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -3.64%E -1.19%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.03%EV -11.64%E -4.43%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.90%EV +0.252%E +0.088%K +0.134%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -3.64%E -1.19%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.03%EV -11.64%E -4.43%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.90%EV +0.252%E +0.088%K +0.134%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -3.64%E -1.19%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.08%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.25%EV -0.096%E -0.033%K -0.051%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.68%EV -7.74%E -2.65%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 09:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.39%EV -2.57%E -0.887%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.08%EV -3.92%E -1.42%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.54%EV -3.00%E -0.979%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-23 16:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -4.25%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.80%E -2.30%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 16:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -4.25%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 16:38 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -5.22%E -1.74%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-23 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -16.01%E -6.40%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -16.01%E -6.40%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -16.01%E -6.40%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -16.01%E -6.40%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -9.01%E -3.13%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -16.01%E -6.40%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -9.01%E -3.13%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -16.01%E -6.40%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -9.01%E -3.13%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.22%EV -3.92%E -1.37%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.68%EV -4.62%E -1.69%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.10%EV -6.48%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.22%EV -3.92%E -1.37%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.68%EV -4.62%E -1.69%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.10%EV -6.48%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.58%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.44%EV -4.97%E -1.82%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.98%EV -7.11%E -2.42%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.27%EV -4.25%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -5.22%E -1.74%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -2.06%E -0.664%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 16:48 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -2.57%E -0.887%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -11.54%E -4.12%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -9.01%E -3.13%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-23 16:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.34%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.54%EV -9.96%E -3.49%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 16:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -16.01%E -6.40%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.01%E -3.13%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -16.01%E -6.40%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.01%E -3.13%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -16.01%E -6.40%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.01%E -3.13%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 16:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.21%EV -4.92%E -1.74%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.94%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -6.80%E -2.30%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 16:48 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 33.42%EV -6.27%E -2.25%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.66%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -7.74%E -2.65%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 16:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -7.75%E -2.93%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -2.06%E -0.664%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.75%E -2.93%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -3.64%E -1.19%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -7.75%E -2.93%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-23 16:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.83%EV -7.75%E -2.93%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.61%EV -7.74%E -2.65%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-23 16:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.83%EV -7.75%E -2.93%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.61%EV -7.74%E -2.65%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-23 16:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.36%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -8.45%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.13%EV -5.22%E -1.74%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 16:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.03%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.53%EV -8.45%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.44%EV -11.54%E -4.12%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.96%EV -8.80%E -3.36%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -2.06%E -0.664%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -8.80%E -3.36%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -5.22%E -1.74%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-23 16:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -8.80%E -3.36%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -5.22%E -1.74%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-23 16:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -9.49%E -3.65%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -2.06%E -0.664%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 16:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -9.49%E -3.65%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -2.06%E -0.664%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 16:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -9.49%E -3.65%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -2.06%E -0.664%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 16:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -9.49%E -3.65%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -2.06%E -0.664%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 16:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -9.49%E -3.65%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -5.22%E -1.74%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-23 16:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -9.49%E -3.65%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-23 16:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -9.49%E -3.65%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-23 16:53 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -9.49%E -3.65%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 33.63%EV -10.30%E -3.86%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -9.49%E -3.65%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.84%EV -10.90%E -3.87%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-23 16:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 32.88%EV -6.94%E -2.51%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.72%EV -11.23%E -4.41%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -8.38%E -2.89%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-23 16:53 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -10.97%E -4.14%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.00%EV -11.23%E -4.41%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.32%EV -9.96%E -3.49%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.39%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -14.72%E -6.01%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.25%EV -9.96%E -3.49%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-23 16:49 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61% | 0.5% | 2026-08-23 16:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61% | 0.5% | 2026-08-23 16:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.69% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.63% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.69% | 1.0% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.59% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43% | 1.1% | 2026-08-23 16:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.59% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98% | 1.1% | 2026-08-23 16:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.96% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.83% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.21% | 1.8% | 2026-08-23 16:54 |