Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional v Braga

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 18:00 UTC

Final: Nacional 1–0 Braga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional (Local)

Prediction 15.50%6.45fair odd
EV +0.746%
Edge +0.115%
Kelly +0.136%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.31%15.52%15.52%16.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.205.946.006.5019.23%16.84%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 61.90%1.62fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -3.03%
Kelly -8.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.30%61.87%61.91%63.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.501.501.5469.93%66.89%66.67%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.60%4.43fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.647%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.25%22.61%22.57%23.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.074.104.3326.67%24.55%24.39%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nacional (Local): 15.50%; Braga (Visit): 61.90%; Draw: 22.60%. For Nacional (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.45. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.746%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +0.746%E +0.115%K +0.136%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -7.14%E -4.76%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 17:10
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.35%EV +0.746%E +0.115%K +0.136%G +0.001%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.45%EV -9.00%E -6.12%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -5.09%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-25 17:40
FanDuel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV +0.746%E +0.115%K +0.136%G +0.001%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.95%EV -8.38%E -5.66%K -17.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 17:09
SportsBet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV +0.746%E +0.115%K +0.136%G +0.001%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.43%EV -7.76%E -5.21%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 17:10
Pinnacle🎯6.43I 15.55%NM 14.95%EV -0.339%E -0.053%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.43%EV -4.67%E -3.03%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.62%EV -3.96%E -0.932%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-25 17:40
Coolbet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.21%EV -3.13%E -0.501%K -0.596%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.15%EV -5.29%E -3.46%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -5.09%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 17:40
GTbets🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.13%EV -3.13%E -0.501%K -0.596%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.20%EV -5.91%E -3.89%K -11.36%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.67%EV -5.77%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 17:35
Bovada🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -3.13%E -0.501%K -0.596%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.46%EV -6.53%E -4.32%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -5.09%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 17:47
BetUS🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -3.13%E -0.501%K -0.596%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.46%EV -6.53%E -4.32%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -5.09%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 17:49
LowVig.ag🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.13%EV -3.90%E -0.630%K -0.751%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.54%EV -7.14%E -4.76%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -5.09%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.13%EV -3.90%E -0.630%K -0.751%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.54%EV -7.14%E -4.76%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -5.09%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 17:49
Virgin Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -5.45%E -0.894%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.73%EV -5.91%E -3.89%K -11.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.32%EV -5.45%E -0.894%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.89%EV -6.53%E -4.32%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 17:10
Grosvenor🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.32%EV -5.45%E -0.894%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.89%EV -6.53%E -4.32%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 17:10
Casumo🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.32%EV -5.45%E -0.894%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.89%EV -6.53%E -4.32%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.32%EV -5.45%E -0.894%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.89%EV -6.53%E -4.32%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 17:10
betPARX🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.32%EV -5.45%E -0.894%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.89%EV -6.53%E -4.32%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 17:10
Bally Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.32%EV -5.45%E -0.894%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.89%EV -6.53%E -4.32%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 17:10
Marathon Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -5.45%E -0.894%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.04%EV -7.14%E -4.76%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 17:35
Fanatics🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -5.29%E -3.46%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -2.83%E -0.659%K -0.859%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 17:49
DraftKings🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -5.29%E -3.46%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -5.09%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.91%EV -5.91%E -3.89%K -11.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.09%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 17:48
Betway🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -7.14%E -4.76%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.09%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 17:10
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.73%EV -6.53%E -4.32%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 17:50
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.14%E -4.76%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 17:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.14%E -4.76%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 17:49
Sky Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -10.86%E -7.54%K -24.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -5.09%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 17:40
Bet Victor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -10.24%E -7.06%K -22.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 17:48
betano_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -10.24%E -7.06%K -22.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 17:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -10.86%E -7.54%K -24.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 17:49
BoyleSports🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -10.86%E -7.54%K -24.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 17:35
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.65%EV -8.55%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.55%EV -7.14%E -4.76%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.80%EV -8.48%E -2.09%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 17:35
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.65%EV -8.55%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.55%EV -7.14%E -4.76%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.80%EV -8.48%E -2.09%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 17:35
William Hill🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -10.10%E -1.74%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.38%EV -5.29%E -3.46%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -11.87%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.72%EV -10.10%E -1.74%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.20%EV -7.76%E -5.21%K -15.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08%EV -10.74%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-25 17:10
Coral🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -5.29%E -3.46%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -2.16%E -0.498%K -0.647%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 17:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -5.29%E -3.46%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -2.16%E -0.498%K -0.647%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 17:50
BetMGM🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.34%EV -5.29%E -3.46%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.09%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 17:49
888sport🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.30%EV -5.29%E -3.46%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -11.87%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 17:35
888sport (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.30%EV -5.29%E -3.46%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -11.87%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 17:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.30%EV -5.29%E -3.46%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -11.87%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 17:35
PlayUp🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.14%E -4.76%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 17:35
TABtouch🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.77%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.27%EV -8.38%E -5.66%K -17.46%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -10.74%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 17:10
BetRivers🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.77%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.27%EV -8.38%E -5.66%K -17.46%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -10.74%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.25%EV -9.00%E -6.12%K -19.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.09%EV -11.87%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.25%EV -9.00%E -6.12%K -19.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.09%EV -11.87%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 17:10
Unibet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.25%EV -9.00%E -6.12%K -19.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.09%EV -11.87%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.53%EV -10.88%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.58%EV -10.24%E -7.06%K -22.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -11.87%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 17:10
Neds🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -13.20%E -2.36%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.38%EV -5.91%E -3.89%K -11.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%EV -3.96%E -0.932%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-25 17:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -13.20%E -2.36%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.38%EV -5.91%E -3.89%K -11.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%EV -3.96%E -0.932%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-25 17:49
NetBet (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 15.88%EV -13.20%E -2.36%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.32%EV -10.24%E -7.06%K -22.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -11.87%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 15.76%EV -13.20%E -2.36%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -10.86%E -7.54%K -24.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.93%EV -13.00%E -3.38%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-25 17:10
Winamax (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -14.75%E -2.68%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.15%EV -9.00%E -6.12%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -2.83%E -0.659%K -0.859%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-25 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.56%EV -16.30%E -3.02%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.40%EV -8.38%E -5.66%K -17.46%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.04%EV -12.32%E -3.18%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 17:33
Winamax (FR)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.81%EV -17.85%E -3.37%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.45%EV -10.24%E -7.06%K -22.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.73%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-25 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 16.60%EV -19.40%E -3.73%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 60.37%EV -11.48%E -8.03%K -26.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.02%EV -15.26%E -4.07%K -5.55%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-25 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-10-25 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-10-25 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-10-25 17:50
Matchbook◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-10-25 17:50
Smarkets◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.72%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.31%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%1.2%2026-10-25 17:19
Kalshi◎7.14I 14.01%NM 13.74%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.71%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.55%1.9%2026-10-25 17:35