The School of Odds
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Nacional v Braga

2026-10-25 18:00 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional (Local)

Prediction 14.03%7.13fair odd
EV +1.69%
Edge +0.233%
Kelly +0.270%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.94%14.08%14.39%15.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.446.307.2517.86%15.53%15.87%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 63.63%1.57fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -3.03%
Kelly -9.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.18%63.49%63.41%64.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.451.451.5074.07%69.14%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.34%4.48fair odd
EV -3.94%
Edge -0.916%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.74%22.43%22.19%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.884.064.054.3025.77%24.63%24.69%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Nacional (Local): 14.03%; Braga (Visit): 63.63%; Draw: 22.34%. For Nacional (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.13. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 7.25, producing a positive expected value of +1.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 13.13%EV +1.69%E +0.233%K +0.270%G +0.005%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.74%EV -6.46%E -4.39%K -13.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -3.94%E -0.916%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-12 11:35
Betr (AU)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV +1.69%E +0.233%K +0.270%G +0.005%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -7.73%E -5.33%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-12 11:29
SportsBet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -1.82%E -0.259%K -0.303%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.59%EV -7.73%E -5.33%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -5.06%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-12 11:29
Fanatics🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -1.82%E -0.259%K -0.303%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.91%EV -8.37%E -5.81%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -3.94%E -0.916%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-12 12:00
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -1.82%E -0.259%K -0.303%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.58%EV -8.37%E -5.81%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-12 11:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV -1.82%E -0.259%K -0.303%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.58%EV -8.37%E -5.81%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-12 11:54
FanDuel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -1.82%E -0.259%K -0.303%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.73%EV -9.00%E -6.30%K -20.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-12 11:29
Marathon Bet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.54%EV -10.23%E -1.60%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.30%EV -6.46%E -4.39%K -13.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-12 12:34
Betsson🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 14.68%EV -11.63%E -1.85%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.49%EV -5.82%E -3.93%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.83%EV -9.52%E -2.35%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-12 12:00
NordicBet🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 14.68%EV -11.63%E -1.85%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.49%EV -5.82%E -3.93%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.83%EV -9.52%E -2.35%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-12 11:59
Sky Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.15%EV -12.34%E -1.97%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.17%EV -10.91%E -7.79%K -27.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.68%EV -12.87%E -3.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-12 11:48
Betclic (FR)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.37%EV -14.44%E -2.37%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 63.05%EV -11.55%E -8.31%K -29.61%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 22.59%EV -13.32%E -3.43%K -4.63%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-12 11:27
Unibet (FR)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.12%EV -14.44%E -2.37%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 63.80%EV -14.09%E -10.44%K -40.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%EV -12.87%E -3.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-12 11:30
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -15.84%E -2.64%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -12.87%E -3.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-12 12:30
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -15.84%E -2.64%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -12.87%E -3.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-12 12:29
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -15.84%E -2.64%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -12.87%E -3.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-12 12:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -15.84%E -2.64%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -4.55%E -3.03%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -12.87%E -3.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-12 12:29
Winamax (DE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.17%EV -18.65%E -3.22%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.84%EV -10.91%E -7.79%K -27.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.99%EV -10.64%E -2.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-12 11:29
Winamax (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 15.47%EV -21.45%E -3.83%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 62.32%EV -11.55%E -8.31%K -29.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.21%EV -12.87%E -3.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-12 11:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎5.80I 17.24%NM 14.84%1.39I 71.94%NM 61.91%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.26%16.2%2026-10-12 11:30