La escuela de los momios

Moreirense FC v Estoril

Inicio: 2026-04-20 19:15 UTC

Final: Moreirense FC 1–0 Estoril

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Moreirense FC (Local)

Predicción 34.37%2.91momio equitativo
EV +1.39%
Ventaja +0.470%
Kelly +0.711%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.86%34.22%34.42%35.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.762.752.9540.00%36.17%36.36%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Estoril (Visitante)

Predicción 37.70%2.65momio equitativo
EV -1.24%
Ventaja -0.472%
Kelly -0.763%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.54%37.88%37.72%40.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.232.412.402.6244.84%41.47%41.67%38.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.94%3.58momio equitativo
EV -1.95%
Ventaja -0.554%
Kelly -0.775%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.55%27.90%27.85%29.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.353.353.5134.72%29.87%29.85%28.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV +1.39%E +0.470%K +0.711%G +0.010%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.40%EV -12.17%E -5.22%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 18:20
ATG (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV +1.39%E +0.470%K +0.711%G +0.010%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.40%EV -12.17%E -5.22%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 18:20
Grosvenor2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV +1.39%E +0.470%K +0.711%G +0.010%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -12.54%E -5.41%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 18:20
Casumo2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV +1.39%E +0.470%K +0.711%G +0.010%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -12.54%E -5.41%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 18:20
betPARX2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV +1.39%E +0.470%K +0.711%G +0.010%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -12.54%E -5.41%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 18:20
Bally Bet2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV +1.39%E +0.470%K +0.711%G +0.010%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -12.54%E -5.41%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 18:20
TABtouch2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -0.332%E -0.115%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -13.30%E -5.78%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 18:20
BetRivers2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -0.332%E -0.115%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -13.30%E -5.78%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 18:20
Unibet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -0.332%E -0.115%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.33%EV -13.30%E -5.78%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-20 18:20
Unibet (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -0.332%E -0.115%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.33%EV -13.30%E -5.78%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-20 18:19
Unibet (NL)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -0.332%E -0.115%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.33%EV -13.30%E -5.78%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-20 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 32.02%EV -1.02%E -0.354%K -0.542%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.45%EV -14.05%E -6.16%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-20 18:20
LiveScore Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 32.02%EV -1.02%E -0.354%K -0.542%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.45%EV -14.05%E -6.16%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-20 18:20
PMU (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -2.05%E -0.720%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.46%EV -15.18%E -6.75%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -7.81%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-20 18:20
Virgin Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -2.05%E -0.720%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.46%EV -15.18%E -6.75%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -7.81%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-20 18:20
GTbets2.84I 35.21%NM 33.85%EV -2.39%E -0.843%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.76%EV -6.51%E -2.63%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.39%EV -1.95%E -0.554%K -0.775%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-20 18:55
1xBet2.82I 35.46%NM 34.37%EV -3.08%E -1.09%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -3.50%E -1.37%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.77%EV -2.50%E -0.718%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-20 19:10
Pinnacle2.80I 35.71%NM 34.60%EV -3.77%E -1.35%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.98%EV -1.24%E -0.472%K -0.763%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.41%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-20 19:10
Tipico (DE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -3.77%E -1.35%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -10.61%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 18:55
LeoVegas2.80I 35.71%NM 32.08%EV -3.77%E -1.35%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.28%EV -15.94%E -7.15%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-20 18:20
Betclic (FR)2.78I 35.97%NM 33.62%EV -4.46%E -1.60%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.44%EV -10.66%E -4.50%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.94%EV -3.06%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 18:49
BetOnline.ag2.76I 36.23%NM 34.31%EV -5.14%E -1.86%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.99%EV -3.50%E -1.37%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -7.81%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-20 18:49
DraftKings2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-20 19:10
Bovada2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.31%EV -5.01%E -1.99%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -7.81%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-20 19:09
BetUS2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.31%EV -5.01%E -1.99%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -7.81%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-20 19:10
Unibet (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-20 19:10
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-20 18:49
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -9.53%E -3.97%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -2.23%E -0.636%K -0.890%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-20 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -9.53%E -3.97%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -2.23%E -0.636%K -0.890%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-20 18:45
Neds2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -9.53%E -3.97%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -2.23%E -0.636%K -0.890%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-20 18:45
Coral2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -9.53%E -3.97%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -2.23%E -0.636%K -0.890%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-20 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -9.53%E -3.97%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -2.23%E -0.636%K -0.890%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-20 18:45
Marathon Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.62%EV -6.51%E -2.63%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.45%EV -8.37%E -2.55%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-20 19:09
Bet Right2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.53%E -3.97%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 18:50
PointsBet (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -5.49%E -2.00%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.53%E -3.97%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 18:49
LowVig.ag2.74I 36.50%NM 34.67%EV -5.83%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -1.99%E -0.765%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.79%EV -7.81%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-20 19:10
Betsson2.72I 36.76%NM 34.29%EV -6.52%E -2.40%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.01%EV -5.01%E -1.99%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-20 19:10
NordicBet2.72I 36.76%NM 34.29%EV -6.52%E -2.40%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.01%EV -5.01%E -1.99%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-20 19:09
Unibet (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 19:10
FanDuel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 19:09
Everygame2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-20 18:40
BetMGM2.70I 37.04%NM 34.41%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.04%EV -10.28%E -4.32%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -2.23%E -0.636%K -0.890%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-20 18:44
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -7.81%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-20 18:55
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -7.81%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-20 18:55
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -10.61%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-20 19:10
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -10.61%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-20 19:10
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-20 18:20
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-20 18:20
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-20 18:20
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.21%E -2.67%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-20 18:20
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -9.61%E -3.65%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -2.23%E -0.636%K -0.890%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 19:10
betfred_uk2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.96%E -3.80%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -10.28%E -4.32%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-20 18:45
NetBet (FR)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -9.96%E -3.80%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.48%EV -8.77%E -3.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.91%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-20 18:50
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -9.53%E -3.97%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-20 19:09
Bet Victor2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -7.81%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-20 19:08
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 34.68%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.57%EV -9.53%E -3.97%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-20 19:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 32.97%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.27%EV -13.30%E -5.78%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.76%EV -19.55%E -6.79%K -10.40%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-20 19:10
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -14.08%E -5.63%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -13.30%E -5.78%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-20 19:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.18%2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.72%0.2%2026-04-20 19:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.49%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-04-20 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.49%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-04-20 19:10
Matchbook2.88I 34.72%NM 34.46%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-04-20 19:10
Smarkets2.88I 34.72%NM 34.36%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%1.1%2026-04-20 19:10
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 33.94%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.92%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%3.0%2026-04-20 18:45