Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC v Braga

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC (Local)

Prediction 14.22%7.03fair odd
EV +8.93%
Edge +1.17%
Kelly +1.34%
Growth +0.120%

assuming max odds 7.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.39%14.26%14.32%16.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.476.507.6618.18%15.46%15.38%13.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 63.10%1.58fair odd
EV -0.929%
Edge -0.592%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.87%62.91%63.07%64.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.491.501.5771.43%67.04%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.68%4.41fair odd
EV -0.220%
Edge -0.050%
Kelly -0.065%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.40%22.83%22.61%24.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.024.004.4027.78%24.86%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moreirense FC (Local): 14.22%; Braga (Visit): 63.10%; Draw: 22.68%. For Moreirense FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.03. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.66, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯7.66I 13.05%NM 12.66%EV +8.93%E +1.17%K +1.34%G +0.120%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.21%EV -4.72%E -3.12%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 23.14%EV -4.98%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 16:50
FanDuel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV +6.65%E +0.887%K +1.02%G +0.068%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.96%EV -9.76%E -6.83%K -22.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -7.02%E -1.71%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 16:45
Pinnacle🎯7.28I 13.74%NM 13.21%EV +3.52%E +0.484%K +0.561%G +0.020%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.57%EV -5.98%E -4.01%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.22%EV -1.81%E -0.417%K -0.543%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-04 16:54
LowVig.ag🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 13.51%EV +2.38%E +0.331%K +0.385%G +0.009%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.40%EV -4.72%E -3.12%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.10%EV -0.220%E -0.050%K -0.065%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-04 16:15
BetOnline.ag🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 13.51%EV +2.38%E +0.331%K +0.385%G +0.009%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.40%EV -4.72%E -3.12%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.10%EV -0.220%E -0.050%K -0.065%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-04 16:15
Coolbet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -0.459%E -0.066%K -0.077%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.61%EV -4.08%E -2.69%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -9.29%E -2.32%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:14
Fanatics🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -0.459%E -0.066%K -0.077%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -6.61%E -4.47%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -2.49%E -0.578%K -0.754%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:54
Tipico (DE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -0.459%E -0.066%K -0.077%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -8.50%E -5.86%K -18.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.76%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:18
SportsBet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -0.459%E -0.066%K -0.077%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -9.13%E -6.34%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -9.29%E -2.32%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-04 16:39
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -0.459%E -0.066%K -0.077%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -9.13%E -6.34%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -9.29%E -2.32%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-04 16:01
Bet Victor🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -0.459%E -0.066%K -0.077%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.49%EV -9.13%E -6.34%K -20.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:55
GTbets🎯6.93I 14.43%NM 13.87%EV -1.45%E -0.210%K -0.245%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.03%EV -2.19%E -1.41%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.10%EV -9.52%E -2.39%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 16:39
Betr (AU)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.83%EV -4.01%E -0.595%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.23%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:20
Everygame🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.70%EV -4.01%E -0.595%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.76%EV -8.50%E -5.86%K -18.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.02%E -1.71%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 16:19
Marathon Bet🎯6.60I 15.15%NM 14.12%EV -6.15%E -0.931%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.41%EV -7.24%E -4.92%K -15.40%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -5.89%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.98%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -4.76%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 16:19
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.98%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -4.76%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 16:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.98%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -4.76%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 16:14
DraftKings🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.13%EV -5.98%E -4.01%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -4.76%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 16:53
BetMGM🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.63%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -7.02%E -1.71%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 16:54
Betclic (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.35%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.45%EV -7.24%E -4.92%K -15.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -4.76%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 16:43
Bet Right🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.90%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 16:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.90%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 16:10
Sky Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.35%EV -9.13%E -6.34%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -1.81%E -0.417%K -0.543%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 16:39
William Hill🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -9.13%E -6.34%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.29%E -2.32%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 16:54
888sport🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -9.13%E -6.34%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.29%E -2.32%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -9.13%E -6.34%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.29%E -2.32%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 16:50
888sport (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -9.13%E -6.34%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.29%E -2.32%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.43%EV -7.57%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.33%EV -11.66%E -8.33%K -29.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -18.36%E -5.10%K -7.06%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-04 16:30
Neds🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -8.99%E -1.40%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.49%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.02%E -1.71%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 16:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -8.99%E -1.40%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.49%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.02%E -1.71%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 16:14
NordicBet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -8.99%E -1.40%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.82%EV -5.98%E -4.01%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -5.89%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 16:40
Betsson🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -8.99%E -1.40%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.82%EV -5.98%E -4.01%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -5.89%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 16:39
BetUS🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.07%EV -11.12%E -1.78%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.77%EV -2.19%E -1.41%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 13:30
Grosvenor🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.01%EV -11.12%E -1.78%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.93%EV -2.82%E -1.83%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 16:39
Casumo🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.01%EV -11.12%E -1.78%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.93%EV -2.82%E -1.83%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 16:40
betPARX🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.01%EV -11.12%E -1.78%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.93%EV -2.82%E -1.83%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.01%EV -11.12%E -1.78%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.93%EV -2.82%E -1.83%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.01%EV -11.12%E -1.78%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.93%EV -2.82%E -1.83%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 16:39
Bally Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.01%EV -11.12%E -1.78%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.93%EV -2.82%E -1.83%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 16:40
PlayUp🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -11.12%E -1.78%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.27%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -7.02%E -1.71%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:50
NetBet (FR)🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 14.61%EV -11.84%E -1.91%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.46%EV -8.50%E -5.86%K -18.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.93%EV -10.42%E -2.64%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 16:39
BetRivers🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -13.26%E -2.17%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.86%EV -3.45%E -2.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 16:40
TABtouch🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -13.26%E -2.17%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.86%EV -3.45%E -2.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -11.56%E -2.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 16:40
Unibet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -13.26%E -2.17%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.98%EV -4.72%E -3.12%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -12.69%E -3.30%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 16:39
Unibet (SE)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -13.26%E -2.17%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.98%EV -4.72%E -3.12%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -12.69%E -3.30%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -13.26%E -2.17%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.98%EV -4.72%E -3.12%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -12.69%E -3.30%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.04%EV -13.26%E -2.17%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.14%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -12.69%E -3.30%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.04%EV -13.26%E -2.17%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.14%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -12.69%E -3.30%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 16:39
Winamax (DE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -14.68%E -2.45%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.54%EV -6.61%E -4.47%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -4.76%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 16:15
Unibet (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -14.68%E -2.45%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.04%EV -5.98%E -4.01%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.02%E -1.71%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 16:40
BoyleSports🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -14.68%E -2.45%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.35%E -3.56%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.29%E -2.32%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.14%EV -14.68%E -2.45%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.96%EV -5.98%E -4.01%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.83%E -3.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.14%EV -14.68%E -2.45%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.96%EV -5.98%E -4.01%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.83%E -3.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 16:39
LeoVegas🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -14.68%E -2.45%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.93%EV -6.61%E -4.47%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -14.96%E -3.99%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 16:40
Winamax (FR)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -17.52%E -3.02%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.20%EV -7.87%E -5.39%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -7.02%E -1.71%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 16:19
Betway🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -21.79%E -3.96%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -0.929%E -0.592%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -13.83%E -3.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 11:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.32%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57%0.7%2026-04-04 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.32%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57%0.7%2026-04-04 16:55
Matchbook8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.32%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57%0.7%2026-04-04 16:45
Kalshi8.33I 12.00%NM 11.91%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.28%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.81%0.8%2026-04-04 16:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)8.00I 12.50%NM 12.37%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.13%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.50%1.0%2026-04-04 16:50
Smarkets8.00I 12.50%NM 12.31%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.90%1.5%2026-04-04 16:55