Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC v Benfica

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 19:45 UTC

Final: Moreirense FC 0–4 Benfica

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC (Local)

Prediction 5.65%17.71fair odd
EV +12.95%
Edge +0.647%
Kelly +0.682%
Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 20.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.61%5.64%5.56%6.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0015.9715.2520.007.69%6.26%6.56%5.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benfica (Visit)

Prediction 83.21%1.20fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -15.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.32%82.93%83.41%84.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.131.131.1792.59%88.41%88.50%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.14%8.97fair odd
EV +5.43%
Edge +0.574%
Kelly +0.642%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 9.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.20%11.43%11.03%15.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.107.858.009.4616.39%12.74%12.50%10.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moreirense FC (Local): 5.65%; Benfica (Visit): 83.21%; Draw: 11.14%. For Moreirense FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.71. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 20.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV +12.95%E +0.647%K +0.682%G +0.088%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.26%EV -4.31%E -3.75%K -28.74%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.13%EV -32.02%E -5.25%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-09 17:40
NordicBet🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV +12.95%E +0.647%K +0.682%G +0.088%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.26%EV -4.31%E -3.75%K -28.74%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.13%EV -32.02%E -5.25%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-09 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV +7.30%E +0.384%K +0.406%G +0.030%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.28%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 16:51
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV +7.30%E +0.384%K +0.406%G +0.030%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.98%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 16:51
PlayUp🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +7.30%E +0.384%K +0.406%G +0.030%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.24%EV -4.31%E -3.75%K -28.74%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 17:40
Tipico (DE)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV +7.30%E +0.384%K +0.406%G +0.030%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.10%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:10
Pinnacle🎯18.57I 5.39%NM 5.19%EV +4.87%E +0.262%K +0.277%G +0.014%1.14I 87.72%NM 84.61%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%9.46I 10.57%NM 10.20%EV +5.43%E +0.574%K +0.642%G +0.035%3.7%2026-09-09 17:00
Coolbet🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +1.65%E +0.092%K +0.097%G +0.002%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.11%EV -4.31%E -3.75%K -28.74%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.58%EV -8.06%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-09 17:40
SportsBet🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV +1.65%E +0.092%K +0.097%G +0.002%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.47%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.33%EV -8.06%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 16:35
Paddy Power🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV +1.65%E +0.092%K +0.097%G +0.002%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.30%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-09 16:49
Bet Victor🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV +1.65%E +0.092%K +0.097%G +0.002%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.80%EV -8.47%E -7.70%K -84.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -16.42%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:00
betano_uk🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV +1.65%E +0.092%K +0.097%G +0.002%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.80%EV -8.47%E -7.70%K -84.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -16.42%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:00
Coral🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.25%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 17:21
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.25%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 17:21
DraftKings🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.89%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 17:10
Betr (AU)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 17:40
BoyleSports🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 17:00
Sky Bet🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 16:36
PointsBet (AU)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.16%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -16.42%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 16:56
Betclic (FR)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.21%EV -8.06%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-09 17:39
FanDuel🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.05%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 16:35
BetMGM🎯16.50I 6.06%NM 5.72%EV -6.82%E -0.413%K -0.440%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.45%EV -8.06%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 17:20
Fanatics🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -9.64%E -0.603%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.72%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.42%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 17:00
Neds🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV -9.64%E -0.603%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:21
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV -9.64%E -0.603%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:20
Bet Right🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -9.64%E -0.603%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -16.42%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 17:40
Unibet (FR)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.65%EV -9.64%E -0.603%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -9.30%E -8.54%K -103.37%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.44%EV -11.96%E -1.51%K -1.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-09 17:40
BetUS🎯15.50I 6.45%NM 6.05%EV -12.46%E -0.804%K -0.860%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.04%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.91%EV -4.16%E -0.483%K -0.547%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯15.25I 6.56%NM 6.10%EV -13.88%E -0.910%K -0.974%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.82%EV -4.16%E -0.483%K -0.547%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 17:40
Betway🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 17:40
Grosvenor🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:25
Casumo🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:25
Svenska Spel🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:24
ATG (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:24
Bally Bet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:24
betPARX🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:23
LowVig.ag🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.87%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.89%EV -4.16%E -0.483%K -0.547%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 17:10
BetOnline.ag🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.87%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.89%EV -4.16%E -0.483%K -0.547%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.40%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:41
Mr Green (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.40%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:41
William Hill🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.40%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:40
Bovada🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.15%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.64%EV -2.49%E -0.284%K -0.321%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 16:50
888sport🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.89%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 16:50
betfred_uk🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -16.42%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 16:56
NetBet (FR)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 5.99%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 83.13%EV -10.14%E -9.38%K -126.69%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.88%EV -8.06%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 17:06
GTbets🎯14.75I 6.78%NM 6.41%EV -16.70%E -1.13%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -4.31%E -3.75%K -28.74%G +0.000%8.27I 12.09%NM 11.43%EV -7.83%E -0.947%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 17:00
Unibet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:25
BetRivers🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:25
TABtouch🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:25
Unibet (NL)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:25
PMU (FR)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:25
Unibet (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:24
Winamax (FR)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.78%EV -8.47%E -7.70%K -84.71%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -26.58%E -2.04%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -27.56%E -4.24%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 10:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -26.58%E -2.04%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -27.56%E -4.24%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 10:25
Virgin Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -26.58%E -2.04%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -27.56%E -4.24%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 10:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)25.00I 4.00%NM 3.98%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.85%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16%0.4%2026-09-09 17:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)25.00I 4.00%NM 3.98%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.85%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16%0.4%2026-09-09 17:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)25.00I 4.00%NM 3.98%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.85%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16%0.4%2026-09-09 17:10
Matchbook25.00I 4.00%NM 3.98%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.85%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16%0.4%2026-09-09 17:00
Smarkets23.98I 4.17%NM 4.15%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.71%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.15%0.6%2026-09-09 17:06
Kalshi20.00I 5.00%NM 4.89%1.16I 86.21%NM 84.34%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.76%2.2%2026-09-09 16:25