Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Moreirense FC v Benfica

Início: 2026-09-09 19:45 UTC

Final: Moreirense FC 0–4 Benfica

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Moreirense FC (Local)

Previsão 5.65%17.71odd justa
EV +12.95%
Vantagem +0.647%
Kelly +0.682%
Crescimento +0.088%

pressupondo odds máximas de 20.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
4.61%5.64%5.56%6.89%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
13.0015.9715.2520.007.69%6.26%6.56%5.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Benfica (Visitante)

Previsão 83.21%1.20odd justa
EV -2.65%
Vantagem -2.26%
Kelly -15.57%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.17

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
79.32%82.93%83.41%84.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.081.131.131.1792.59%88.41%88.50%85.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 11.14%8.97odd justa
EV +5.43%
Vantagem +0.574%
Kelly +0.642%
Crescimento +0.035%

pressupondo odds máximas de 9.46

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
10.20%11.43%11.03%15.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.107.858.009.4616.39%12.74%12.50%10.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Moreirense FC (Local): 5.65%; Benfica (Visitante): 83.21%; Empate: 11.14%. Para Moreirense FC (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 17.71. 12 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 20.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +12.95%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Betsson🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV +12.95%E +0.647%K +0.682%G +0.088%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.26%EV -4.31%E -3.75%K -28.74%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.13%EV -32.02%E -5.25%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-09 17:40
NordicBet🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV +12.95%E +0.647%K +0.682%G +0.088%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.26%EV -4.31%E -3.75%K -28.74%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.13%EV -32.02%E -5.25%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-09 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV +7.30%E +0.384%K +0.406%G +0.030%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.28%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 16:51
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV +7.30%E +0.384%K +0.406%G +0.030%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.98%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 16:51
PlayUp🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +7.30%E +0.384%K +0.406%G +0.030%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.24%EV -4.31%E -3.75%K -28.74%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 17:40
Tipico (DE)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV +7.30%E +0.384%K +0.406%G +0.030%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.10%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:10
Pinnacle🎯18.57I 5.39%NM 5.19%EV +4.87%E +0.262%K +0.277%G +0.014%1.14I 87.72%NM 84.61%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%9.46I 10.57%NM 10.20%EV +5.43%E +0.574%K +0.642%G +0.035%3.7%2026-09-09 17:00
Coolbet🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +1.65%E +0.092%K +0.097%G +0.002%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.11%EV -4.31%E -3.75%K -28.74%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.58%EV -8.06%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-09 17:40
SportsBet🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV +1.65%E +0.092%K +0.097%G +0.002%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.47%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.33%EV -8.06%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 16:35
Paddy Power🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV +1.65%E +0.092%K +0.097%G +0.002%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.30%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-09 16:49
Bet Victor🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV +1.65%E +0.092%K +0.097%G +0.002%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.80%EV -8.47%E -7.70%K -84.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -16.42%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:00
betano_uk🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV +1.65%E +0.092%K +0.097%G +0.002%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.80%EV -8.47%E -7.70%K -84.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -16.42%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:00
Coral🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.25%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 17:21
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.25%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 17:21
DraftKings🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.89%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 17:10
Betr (AU)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 17:40
BoyleSports🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 17:00
Sky Bet🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 16:36
PointsBet (AU)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.16%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -16.42%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 16:56
Betclic (FR)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.21%EV -8.06%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-09 17:39
FanDuel🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -3.99%E -0.235%K -0.250%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.05%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 16:35
BetMGM🎯16.50I 6.06%NM 5.72%EV -6.82%E -0.413%K -0.440%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.45%EV -8.06%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 17:20
Fanatics🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -9.64%E -0.603%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.72%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.42%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 17:00
Neds🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV -9.64%E -0.603%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:21
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV -9.64%E -0.603%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -10.84%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:20
Bet Right🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -9.64%E -0.603%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -16.42%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 17:40
Unibet (FR)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.65%EV -9.64%E -0.603%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -9.30%E -8.54%K -103.37%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.44%EV -11.96%E -1.51%K -1.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-09 17:40
BetUS🎯15.50I 6.45%NM 6.05%EV -12.46%E -0.804%K -0.860%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.04%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.91%EV -4.16%E -0.483%K -0.547%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯15.25I 6.56%NM 6.10%EV -13.88%E -0.910%K -0.974%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.82%EV -4.16%E -0.483%K -0.547%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 17:40
Betway🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 17:40
Grosvenor🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:25
Casumo🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:25
Svenska Spel🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:24
ATG (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:24
Bally Bet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:24
betPARX🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -2.65%E -2.26%K -15.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -21.99%E -3.14%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 10:23
LowVig.ag🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.87%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.89%EV -4.16%E -0.483%K -0.547%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 17:10
BetOnline.ag🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.87%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.89%EV -4.16%E -0.483%K -0.547%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.40%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:41
Mr Green (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.40%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:41
William Hill🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.40%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +0.301%E +0.033%K +0.038%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:40
Bovada🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.15%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.64%EV -2.49%E -0.284%K -0.321%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 16:50
888sport🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.89%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 16:50
betfred_uk🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -6.81%E -6.08%K -56.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -16.42%E -2.19%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 16:56
NetBet (FR)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 5.99%EV -15.29%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 83.13%EV -10.14%E -9.38%K -126.69%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.88%EV -8.06%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-09 17:06
GTbets🎯14.75I 6.78%NM 6.41%EV -16.70%E -1.13%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -4.31%E -3.75%K -28.74%G +0.000%8.27I 12.09%NM 11.43%EV -7.83%E -0.947%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -7.64%E -6.88%K -69.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 17:00
Unibet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:25
BetRivers🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:25
TABtouch🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:25
Unibet (NL)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:25
PMU (FR)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:25
Unibet (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.98%EV -5.14%E -4.51%K -36.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -24.77%E -3.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 10:24
Winamax (FR)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%EV -20.94%E -1.50%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.78%EV -8.47%E -7.70%K -84.71%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -5.27%E -0.620%K -0.703%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -26.58%E -2.04%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -27.56%E -4.24%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 10:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -26.58%E -2.04%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -27.56%E -4.24%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 10:25
Virgin Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -26.58%E -2.04%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -5.97%E -5.29%K -45.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -27.56%E -4.24%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 10:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎25.00I 4.00%NM 3.98%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.85%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16%0.4%2026-09-09 17:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎25.00I 4.00%NM 3.98%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.85%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16%0.4%2026-09-09 17:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎25.00I 4.00%NM 3.98%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.85%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16%0.4%2026-09-09 17:10
Matchbook◎25.00I 4.00%NM 3.98%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.85%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.16%0.4%2026-09-09 17:00
Smarkets◎23.98I 4.17%NM 4.15%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.71%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.15%0.6%2026-09-09 17:06
Kalshi◎20.00I 5.00%NM 4.89%1.16I 86.21%NM 84.34%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.76%2.2%2026-09-09 16:25