L’École des cotes

Moreirense FC v Arouca

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-21 15:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Moreirense FC (Local)

Prévision 35.11%2.85cote équitable
EV -1.35%
Avantage -0.479%
Kelly -0.743%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.81

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.49%35.20%35.05%36.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.552.652.652.8139.22%37.67%37.74%35.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Arouca (Visiteur)

Prévision 35.10%2.85cote équitable
EV +0.024%
Avantage +0.008%
Kelly +0.013%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.03%35.09%35.07%36.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.402.642.632.8541.67%37.85%38.02%35.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 29.80%3.36cote équitable
EV -1.68%
Avantage -0.508%
Kelly -0.728%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.26%29.71%29.87%30.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.133.123.3034.72%31.98%32.05%30.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%EV -3.45%E -1.26%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV +0.024%E +0.008%K +0.013%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.69%EV -5.85%E -1.85%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 14:44
LowVig.ag2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%EV -3.45%E -1.26%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV +0.024%E +0.008%K +0.013%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.69%EV -5.85%E -1.85%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 14:44
1xBet2.81I 35.59%NM 34.52%EV -1.35%E -0.479%K -0.743%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.89%EV -2.43%E -0.875%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.60%EV -5.55%E -1.75%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 15:25
Pinnacle2.79I 35.84%NM 34.68%EV -2.05%E -0.734%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.18%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.14%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 15:19
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.59%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -1.68%E -0.508%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 15:25
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.65%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.36%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 14:44
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 14:49
Betclic (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.96%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.90%EV -4.19%E -1.53%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.14%EV -2.57%E -0.786%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 15:19
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -5.24%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -1.68%E -0.508%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 15:24
Everygame2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -5.24%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 15:04
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -5.24%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -3.17%E -0.974%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 15:24
Bovada2.72I 36.76%NM 34.64%EV -4.50%E -1.66%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.16%EV -5.94%E -2.22%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -7.04%E -2.26%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 15:18
BetUS2.72I 36.76%NM 34.64%EV -4.50%E -1.66%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.16%EV -5.94%E -2.22%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -7.04%E -2.26%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 15:20
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 34.74%EV -5.91%E -2.20%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.74%EV -5.94%E -2.22%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:04
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 34.74%EV -5.91%E -2.20%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.74%EV -5.94%E -2.22%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:04
Marathon Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.91%EV -6.29%E -2.36%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 15:20
GTbets2.66I 37.59%NM 35.53%EV -6.61%E -2.49%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.66%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.81%EV -2.27%E -0.692%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 14:49
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -3.45%E -1.26%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 15:23
Svenska Spel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 14:49
ATG (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 14:50
Bet Right2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -3.17%E -0.974%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 15:24
PointsBet (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -3.17%E -0.974%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 15:24
PlayUp2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 15:04
Parions Sport (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 15:24
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.44%EV -7.66%E -2.91%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.44%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 15:25
Grosvenor2.65I 37.74%NM 35.10%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.37%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 14:49
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 35.10%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.37%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 14:49
Bally Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.10%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.37%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 14:49
betPARX2.65I 37.74%NM 35.10%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.37%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 14:49
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.20%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 14:50
TABtouch2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.20%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 14:50
Coral2.70I 37.04%NM 34.95%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.02%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -3.17%E -0.974%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 14:45
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 15:24
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 15:25
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.02%E -3.06%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:04
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.02%E -3.06%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:05
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.02%E -3.06%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:04
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.02%E -3.06%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:00
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 14:44
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 14:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 14:44
Tipico (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -3.45%E -1.26%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 15:25
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -1.68%E -0.508%K -0.728%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 15:19
BetMGM2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 14:45
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-21 15:19
Unibet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 14:49
Unibet (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 14:50
Unibet (NL)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 14:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 34.97%EV -7.66%E -2.91%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.37%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:49
LiveScore Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 34.97%EV -7.66%E -2.91%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.37%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:49
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-21 14:44
PMU (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.28%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -12.10%E -4.10%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-21 15:25
NetBet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.91%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.32%EV -9.80%E -3.81%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-21 15:24
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -10.50%E -4.12%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:19
Bet Victor2.60I 38.46%NM 35.05%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -10.50%E -4.12%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.21%EV -7.04%E -2.26%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:18
Virgin Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.82%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -10.50%E -4.12%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.68%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-21 14:49
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 35.09%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.09%EV -10.50%E -4.12%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-21 14:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.49%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.28%EV -15.77%E -6.57%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.23%EV -14.19%E -4.93%K -7.55%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-21 15:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.39%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%1.0%2026-03-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.39%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%1.0%2026-03-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.39%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%1.0%2026-03-21 15:24
Matchbook2.88I 34.72%NM 34.39%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%1.0%2026-03-21 15:25
Smarkets2.92I 34.25%NM 33.84%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.29%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.88%1.2%2026-03-21 15:24
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 34.96%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.96%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%2.9%2026-03-21 15:14