La escuela de los momios

Moreirense FC v Arouca

Inicio: 2026-03-21 15:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Moreirense FC (Local)

Predicción 35.11%2.85momio equitativo
EV -1.35%
Ventaja -0.479%
Kelly -0.743%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.49%35.20%35.05%36.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.552.652.652.8139.22%37.67%37.74%35.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Arouca (Visitante)

Predicción 35.10%2.85momio equitativo
EV +0.024%
Ventaja +0.008%
Kelly +0.013%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.03%35.09%35.07%36.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.642.632.8541.67%37.85%38.02%35.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.80%3.36momio equitativo
EV -1.68%
Ventaja -0.508%
Kelly -0.728%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.26%29.71%29.87%30.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.133.123.3034.72%31.98%32.05%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%EV -3.45%E -1.26%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV +0.024%E +0.008%K +0.013%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.69%EV -5.85%E -1.85%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 14:44
LowVig.ag2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%EV -3.45%E -1.26%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV +0.024%E +0.008%K +0.013%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.69%EV -5.85%E -1.85%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 14:44
1xBet2.81I 35.59%NM 34.52%EV -1.35%E -0.479%K -0.743%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.89%EV -2.43%E -0.875%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.60%EV -5.55%E -1.75%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 15:25
Pinnacle2.79I 35.84%NM 34.68%EV -2.05%E -0.734%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.18%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.14%EV -4.36%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 15:19
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.59%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -1.68%E -0.508%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 15:25
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.65%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.36%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 14:44
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 14:49
Betclic (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.96%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.90%EV -4.19%E -1.53%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.14%EV -2.57%E -0.786%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 15:19
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -5.24%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -1.68%E -0.508%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 15:24
Everygame2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -5.24%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 15:04
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -5.24%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -3.17%E -0.974%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 15:24
Bovada2.72I 36.76%NM 34.64%EV -4.50%E -1.66%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.16%EV -5.94%E -2.22%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -7.04%E -2.26%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 15:18
BetUS2.72I 36.76%NM 34.64%EV -4.50%E -1.66%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.16%EV -5.94%E -2.22%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -7.04%E -2.26%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 15:20
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 34.74%EV -5.91%E -2.20%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.74%EV -5.94%E -2.22%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:04
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 34.74%EV -5.91%E -2.20%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.74%EV -5.94%E -2.22%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:04
Marathon Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.91%EV -6.29%E -2.36%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 15:20
GTbets2.66I 37.59%NM 35.53%EV -6.61%E -2.49%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.66%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.81%EV -2.27%E -0.692%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 14:49
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -3.45%E -1.26%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 15:23
Svenska Spel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 14:49
ATG (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 14:50
Bet Right2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -3.17%E -0.974%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 15:24
PointsBet (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -3.17%E -0.974%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 15:24
PlayUp2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 15:04
Parions Sport (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 15:24
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.44%EV -7.66%E -2.91%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.44%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 15:25
Grosvenor2.65I 37.74%NM 35.10%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.37%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 14:49
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 35.10%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.37%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 14:49
Bally Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.10%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.37%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 14:49
betPARX2.65I 37.74%NM 35.10%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.37%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 14:49
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.20%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 14:50
TABtouch2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.20%EV -7.70%E -2.93%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 14:50
Coral2.70I 37.04%NM 34.95%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.02%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -3.17%E -0.974%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 14:45
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 15:24
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 15:25
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.02%E -3.06%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:04
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.02%E -3.06%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:05
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.02%E -3.06%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:04
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.02%E -3.06%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:00
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 14:44
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 14:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 14:44
Tipico (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -3.45%E -1.26%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 15:25
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -1.68%E -0.508%K -0.728%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 15:19
BetMGM2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 14:45
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-21 15:19
Unibet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 14:49
Unibet (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 14:50
Unibet (NL)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 14:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 34.97%EV -7.66%E -2.91%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.37%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:49
LiveScore Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 34.97%EV -7.66%E -2.91%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.37%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 14:49
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-21 14:44
PMU (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.28%EV -6.96%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -12.10%E -4.10%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-21 15:25
NetBet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.91%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.32%EV -9.80%E -3.81%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-21 15:24
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -10.50%E -4.12%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:19
Bet Victor2.60I 38.46%NM 35.05%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -10.50%E -4.12%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.21%EV -7.04%E -2.26%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:18
Virgin Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.82%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -10.50%E -4.12%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.68%EV -9.12%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-21 14:49
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 35.09%EV -10.47%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.09%EV -10.50%E -4.12%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.61%E -3.54%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-21 14:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.49%EV -8.72%E -3.35%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.28%EV -15.77%E -6.57%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.23%EV -14.19%E -4.93%K -7.55%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-21 15:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.39%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%1.0%2026-03-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.39%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%1.0%2026-03-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.39%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%1.0%2026-03-21 15:24
Matchbook2.88I 34.72%NM 34.39%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%1.0%2026-03-21 15:25
Smarkets2.92I 34.25%NM 33.84%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.29%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.88%1.2%2026-03-21 15:24
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 34.96%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.96%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%2.9%2026-03-21 15:14