La escuela de los momiosmomios.info
Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
+ Nuevo modeloTodos los modelos

Gil Vicente v CS Maritimo

Inicio: 2026-09-19 14:30 UTC

Final: Gil Vicente 1–1 CS Maritimo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gil Vicente (Local)

Predicción 47.46%2.11momio equitativo
EV -2.71%
Ventaja -1.32%
Kelly -2.58%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.78%47.50%47.40%50.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.861.951.952.0553.76%51.35%51.28%48.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

CS Maritimo (Visitante)

Predicción 23.16%4.32momio equitativo
EV +1.68%
Ventaja +0.382%
Kelly +0.495%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.39

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.96%23.29%23.18%25.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.553.953.954.3928.17%25.30%25.32%22.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.38%3.40momio equitativo
EV +2.83%
Ventaja +0.809%
Kelly +1.13%
Crecimiento +0.032%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.06%29.21%29.42%30.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.183.153.5033.33%31.40%31.75%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Gil Vicente (Local): 47.46%; CS Maritimo (Visitante): 23.16%; Empate: 29.38%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.40. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.83%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.38%EV -10.78%E -5.73%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -2.72%E -0.649%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV +2.83%E +0.809%K +1.13%G +0.032%5.6%2026-09-19 14:02
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -2.71%E -1.32%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -11.99%E -3.15%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-19 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.72%EV -6.51%E -3.30%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -8.51%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 14:16
Virgin Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.72%EV -6.51%E -3.30%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -8.51%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 14:16
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.84%EV -6.98%E -3.56%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -8.51%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 14:16
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.84%EV -6.98%E -3.56%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -8.51%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 14:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.84%EV -6.98%E -3.56%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -8.51%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 14:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.84%EV -6.98%E -3.56%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -8.51%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 14:15
Bally Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.84%EV -6.98%E -3.56%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -8.51%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 14:15
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.84%EV -6.98%E -3.56%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -8.51%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -3.05%E -0.923%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 14:15
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.29%EV -5.08%E -2.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 22.00%EV +1.68%E +0.382%K +0.495%G +0.008%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.71%EV -4.51%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-19 14:16
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -5.08%E -2.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -13.15%E -3.51%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -4.51%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 09:05
Bet Right🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.30%EV -7.93%E -4.09%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -13.15%E -3.51%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -4.51%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 14:02
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.57%EV -6.98%E -3.56%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -16.62%E -4.62%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.08%EV -4.51%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 14:01
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.65%EV -7.93%E -4.09%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -17.78%E -5.01%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.85%EV -4.51%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 14:01
GTbets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.91%EV -8.40%E -4.35%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.29%EV -8.05%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 28.80%EV -5.69%E -1.77%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.48%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -0.408%E -0.095%K -0.124%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 14:25
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.92%EV -5.08%E -2.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -8.51%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 14:02
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -5.04%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 14:01
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.36%E -1.84%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 14:21
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.36%E -1.84%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 14:11
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -13.15%E -3.51%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 19:40
betano_uk🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.37%EV -8.40%E -4.35%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -11.99%E -3.15%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -5.98%E -1.87%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-19 14:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.00%EV -6.51%E -3.30%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -0.408%E -0.095%K -0.124%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.02%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 14:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.00%EV -6.51%E -3.30%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -0.408%E -0.095%K -0.124%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.02%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 14:21
BetUS🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.00%EV -6.51%E -3.30%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -0.408%E -0.095%K -0.124%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.02%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 14:20
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.13%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -1.57%E -0.368%K -0.482%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 14:15
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.95%EV -6.03%E -3.05%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -8.51%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 14:16
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.95%EV -6.03%E -3.05%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -8.51%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 14:16
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -7.36%E -1.84%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-19 14:11
PMU (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.42%EV -9.35%E -4.90%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -11.99%E -3.15%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-19 14:16
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.42%EV -9.35%E -4.90%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -11.99%E -3.15%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-19 14:15
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.42%EV -9.35%E -4.90%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -11.99%E -3.15%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-19 14:16
Unibet (NL)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.68%EV -10.30%E -5.45%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -11.99%E -3.15%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-19 14:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.68%EV -10.30%E -5.45%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -11.99%E -3.15%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-19 14:15
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.68%EV -10.30%E -5.45%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -11.99%E -3.15%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -7.45%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-19 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -7.93%E -4.09%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.42%EV -3.88%E -0.935%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.63%EV -7.75%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 14:25
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.77%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.99%E -3.15%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.23%EV -8.33%E -2.67%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 14:25
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -5.08%E -2.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -2.72%E -0.649%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 14:20
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.36%E -1.84%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:11
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.36%E -1.84%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:11
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.36%E -1.84%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:11
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.36%E -1.84%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:10
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -9.35%E -4.90%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.36%E -1.84%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 14:21
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.44%EV -10.78%E -5.73%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -13.15%E -3.51%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-19 14:16
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.24%EV -11.73%E -6.30%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -16.62%E -4.62%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -8.92%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-19 14:16
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.78%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -17.78%E -5.01%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.08%EV -9.80%E -3.19%K -4.74%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-19 14:16
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.16%EV -6.03%E -3.05%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -2.72%E -0.649%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.61%EV -10.39%E -3.41%K -5.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-19 14:21
NetBet (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.12%EV -9.35%E -4.90%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%EV -10.83%E -2.81%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.51%EV -10.39%E -3.41%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-19 14:25
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.45%E -3.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -2.72%E -0.649%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -11.86%E -3.95%K -5.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-19 14:21
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-09-19 14:21
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-09-19 14:21
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-09-19 14:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.55%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.97%1.1%2026-09-19 14:26
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.57%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15%2.0%2026-09-19 14:26