The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Gil Vicente v Casa Pia

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente (Local)

Prediction 58.86%1.70fair odd
EV -5.83%
Edge -3.64%
Kelly -9.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.40%58.86%58.86%58.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.571.6065.36%63.47%63.69%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Casa Pia (Visit)

Prediction 16.50%6.06fair odd
EV -5.12%
Edge -0.890%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.33%16.50%16.50%16.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.605.605.7518.18%17.86%17.86%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.64%4.06fair odd
EV -6.36%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.64%24.64%24.64%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.723.733.8027.78%26.89%26.85%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gil Vicente (Local): 58.86%; Casa Pia (Visit): 16.50%; Draw: 24.64%. For Casa Pia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.75, with an expected value of -5.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -5.83%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -5.12%E -0.890%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.36%E -1.67%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -5.83%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -5.12%E -0.890%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.36%E -1.67%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 00:25
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -5.83%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -7.59%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -7.59%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 00:24
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -5.83%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -7.59%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -7.59%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 00:25
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -5.83%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -7.59%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -7.59%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 00:25
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -5.83%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -7.59%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -7.59%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 00:25
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.86%EV -7.59%E -4.84%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.50%EV -7.59%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -7.59%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 00:25
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.86%EV -7.59%E -4.84%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.50%EV -7.59%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -7.59%E -2.03%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 00:25
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -7.59%E -4.84%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -7.59%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.83%E -2.39%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 00:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -7.59%E -4.84%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -7.59%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.83%E -2.39%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 00:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -7.59%E -4.84%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -7.59%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.83%E -2.39%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -7.59%E -4.84%K -13.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -7.59%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.83%E -2.39%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.82%EV -8.18%E -5.25%K -14.61%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -7.59%E -1.36%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -8.83%E -2.39%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 00:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -8.77%E -5.66%K -15.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -9.24%E -1.68%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -10.06%E -2.76%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -8.77%E -5.66%K -15.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -9.24%E -1.68%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -10.06%E -2.76%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 00:25
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -9.95%E -6.50%K -18.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -9.24%E -1.68%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.29%E -3.14%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.