The School of Odds
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Gil Vicente v Casa Pia

2026-08-24 19:15 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente (Local)

Prediction 53.25%1.88fair odd
EV -5.22%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -6.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.87%53.20%53.24%54.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.731.751.7861.35%57.69%57.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Casa Pia (Visit)

Prediction 19.87%5.03fair odd
EV -0.675%
Edge -0.135%
Kelly -0.169%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.05%19.93%19.93%21.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.554.605.0023.81%21.97%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.89%3.72fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -0.890%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.37%26.87%26.83%27.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.423.403.6030.77%29.27%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Gil Vicente (Local): 53.25%; Casa Pia (Visit): 19.87%; Draw: 26.89%. For Casa Pia (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.03. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.00, with an expected value of -0.675%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.63%EV -5.22%E -2.93%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -0.675%E -0.135%K -0.169%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-17 15:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.21%EV -5.22%E -2.93%K -6.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.65%E -0.968%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-17 15:04
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.87%EV -5.22%E -2.93%K -6.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -12.59%E -2.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-17 18:15
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.87%EV -5.22%E -2.93%K -6.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -12.59%E -2.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-17 18:10
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.64%EV -5.75%E -3.25%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV -5.64%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -3.20%E -0.890%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 14:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -5.75%E -3.25%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -8.62%E -1.87%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.24%E -2.10%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-17 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.04%EV -6.29%E -3.57%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -8.62%E -1.87%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-17 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -6.82%E -3.90%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -8.62%E -1.87%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-17 14:30
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.94%EV -6.82%E -3.90%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -10.61%E -2.36%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-17 14:27
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -6.82%E -3.90%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -12.59%E -2.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-17 14:45
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -6.82%E -3.90%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -12.59%E -2.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-17 14:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -6.82%E -3.90%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -12.59%E -2.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-17 14:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -6.82%E -3.90%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -12.59%E -2.86%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-17 14:39
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -6.82%E -3.90%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -13.98%E -3.23%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-17 15:19
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.32%EV -7.35%E -4.22%K -9.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -8.62%E -1.87%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 14:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.39%EV -7.88%E -4.56%K -10.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -5.64%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-17 14:19
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.62%EV -7.88%E -4.56%K -10.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -8.62%E -1.87%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -11.27%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-17 15:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.28%EV -8.42%E -4.89%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -2.66%E -0.543%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-17 16:29
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -9.48%E -5.58%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -5.64%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-17 14:25
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -9.48%E -5.58%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -16.57%E -3.94%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.27%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-17 14:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.12%EV -10.55%E -6.28%K -15.51%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -5.64%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-17 14:23
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.94%EV -11.61%E -6.99%K -17.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.44%EV -14.58%E -3.39%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -11.27%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-17 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.77%EV -12.68%E -7.73%K -19.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.60%EV -16.57%E -3.94%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.63%EV -12.61%E -3.88%K -5.61%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-17 14:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.10%EV -13.21%E -8.10%K -20.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -8.62%E -1.87%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -11.27%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-17 14:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%4.76I 21.01%NM 19.85%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%5.9%2026-08-17 15:40
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 52.44%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.02%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%13.5%2026-08-17 19:20

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