Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.81
assuming max odds 5.60
assuming max odds 3.60
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gil Vicente (Local): 53.40%; Casa Pia (Visit): 19.04%; Draw: 27.56%. For Casa Pia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.25. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.64%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -10.82%E -6.48%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.86%EV +6.64%E +1.19%K +1.44%G +0.096% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -2.17%E -0.611%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -10.82%E -6.48%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.86%EV +6.64%E +1.19%K +1.44%G +0.096% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -2.17%E -0.611%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -10.82%E -6.48%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.86%EV +6.64%E +1.19%K +1.44%G +0.096% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -2.17%E -0.611%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -10.82%E -6.48%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.86%EV +6.64%E +1.19%K +1.44%G +0.096% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -2.17%E -0.611%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -10.82%E -6.48%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.86%EV +6.64%E +1.19%K +1.44%G +0.096% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -2.17%E -0.611%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -10.82%E -6.48%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.86%EV +6.64%E +1.19%K +1.44%G +0.096% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -2.17%E -0.611%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.92%EV -9.22%E -5.42%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.62%EV +0.927%E +0.175%K +0.216%G +0.002% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-24 18:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.32%EV -8.69%E -5.08%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.53%EV +0.927%E +0.175%K +0.216%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.06%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-24 19:03 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.28%EV -6.02%E -3.42%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -0.025%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -10.44%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.39%EV -14.03%E -8.71%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.29%EV -0.025%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -4.93%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-24 13:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.02%EV -13.49%E -8.33%K -21.76%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.29%EV -0.025%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.02%EV -13.49%E -8.33%K -21.76%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.29%EV -0.025%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.29%EV -3.35%E -1.85%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 5.21I 19.19%NM 18.51%EV -0.787%E -0.151%K -0.187%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 28.20%EV -5.75%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.08%EV -14.03%E -8.71%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -0.977%E -0.188%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.08%EV -14.03%E -8.71%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -0.977%E -0.188%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.08%EV -14.03%E -8.71%K -22.99%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -0.977%E -0.188%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.01%EV -14.56%E -9.10%K -24.27%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.23%EV -0.977%E -0.188%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.01%EV -14.56%E -9.10%K -24.27%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.23%EV -0.977%E -0.188%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.01%EV -14.56%E -9.10%K -24.27%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.23%EV -0.977%E -0.188%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.86%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV -1.93%E -0.375%K -0.465%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -4.93%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-24 18:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.86%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV -1.93%E -0.375%K -0.465%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -4.93%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-24 18:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.86%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV -1.93%E -0.375%K -0.465%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -4.93%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-24 18:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.22%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.65%EV -3.83%E -0.759%K -0.947%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.01I 19.96%NM 18.84%EV -4.60%E -0.917%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.21%EV -4.38%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-24 18:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.63%EV -4.95%E -2.78%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.79%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -3.55%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-24 19:03 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.77%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -4.79%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -3.55%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-24 18:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.56%EV -5.48%E -3.10%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.79%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.48%EV -4.93%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-24 18:53 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.20%EV -4.95%E -2.78%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -4.79%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -4.79%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-24 18:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -4.79%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.95%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -4.79%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -10.44%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.95%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -4.79%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -10.44%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -7.62%E -4.40%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -4.79%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -9.06%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.00%EV -7.62%E -4.40%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.34%EV -4.79%E -0.957%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.82%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.20%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -6.69%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.92%EV -6.69%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -9.06%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-24 18:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.92%EV -6.69%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -9.06%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-24 18:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -11.89%E -7.21%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.41%EV -6.69%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-24 19:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.96%EV -6.02%E -3.42%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.22%EV -7.64%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.12%EV -10.29%E -6.12%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.75%EV -7.64%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-24 18:58 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.03%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.70%EV -8.59%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -0.793%E -0.220%K -0.305%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-24 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -8.59%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -3.55%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-24 18:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.83%EV -7.62%E -4.40%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -8.59%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.12%EV -10.44%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.72%EV -9.22%E -5.42%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -8.59%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.26%EV -7.68%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-24 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -9.55%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.55%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-24 18:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -9.55%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.55%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-24 18:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.66%EV -7.08%E -4.07%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -9.55%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -3.55%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-24 18:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -9.55%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-24 18:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -9.55%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.67%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -9.55%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.06%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-24 18:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.73%EV -7.62%E -4.40%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%EV -9.55%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.07%EV -10.44%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-24 19:03 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -9.22%E -5.42%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.11%EV -10.50%E -2.23%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -11.82%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -12.40%E -2.70%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -9.06%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -12.40%E -2.70%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -9.06%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -12.40%E -2.70%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -9.06%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.55%E -3.74%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -12.40%E -2.70%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -9.06%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.35%EV -10.29%E -6.12%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.49%EV -12.40%E -2.70%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -9.06%E -2.75%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-24 18:59 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.97% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 17.01% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 28.02% | -0.0% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.10% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.44% | 0.5% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.10% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.44% | 0.5% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.10% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.44% | 0.5% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.10% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.46% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.44% | 0.5% | 2026-08-24 19:04 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.79% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 0.5% | 2026-08-24 19:09 |