The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Gil Vicente v Arouca

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente (Local)

Prediction 54.00%1.85fair odd
EV -5.49%
Edge -3.14%
Kelly -7.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.81%54.00%54.00%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.721.7559.88%58.25%58.14%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arouca (Visit)

Prediction 20.19%4.95fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.91%20.19%20.19%20.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.624.604.7022.22%21.65%21.74%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.80%3.88fair odd
EV -7.11%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.80%25.80%25.80%26.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.563.583.6028.99%28.07%27.97%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gil Vicente (Local): 54.00%; Arouca (Visit): 20.19%; Draw: 25.80%. For Arouca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.70, with an expected value of -5.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -5.49%E -3.14%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -5.09%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -7.11%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 16:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -5.49%E -3.14%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -5.09%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -7.11%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 16:19
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.09%EV -6.57%E -3.80%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%EV -5.09%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.11%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-04 16:19
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.09%EV -6.57%E -3.80%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%EV -5.09%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.11%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-04 16:19
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.09%EV -6.57%E -3.80%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%EV -5.09%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.11%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-04 16:20
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.09%EV -6.57%E -3.80%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%EV -5.09%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.11%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-04 16:20
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.00%EV -7.11%E -4.13%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -7.11%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.11%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-04 16:19
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.00%EV -7.11%E -4.13%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -7.11%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.11%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-04 16:20
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.81%EV -7.11%E -4.13%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -7.11%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -8.40%E -2.37%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-04 16:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.81%EV -7.11%E -4.13%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -7.11%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -8.40%E -2.37%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-04 16:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.81%EV -7.11%E -4.13%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -7.11%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -8.40%E -2.37%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-04 16:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%EV -7.65%E -4.47%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -7.11%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -8.40%E -2.37%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 16:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%EV -7.65%E -4.47%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -7.11%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -8.40%E -2.37%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 16:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.96%EV -9.27%E -5.52%K -13.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -9.13%E -2.03%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.69%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-04 16:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.96%EV -9.27%E -5.52%K -13.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -9.13%E -2.03%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.69%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-04 16:19
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.90%EV -9.81%E -5.88%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -9.13%E -2.03%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -10.98%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-04 16:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.