Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Famalicão v Gil Vicente

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 19:30 UTC

Final: Famalicão 0–0 Gil Vicente

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Famalicão (Local)

Prediction 50.21%1.99fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -4.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.83%50.19%50.12%51.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.851.851.9157.80%53.94%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gil Vicente (Visit)

Prediction 21.00%4.76fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.299%
Kelly +0.377%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.98%21.01%21.01%22.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.354.404.8325.00%22.97%22.73%20.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.79%3.47fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.620%
Kelly -0.879%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.60%28.80%28.87%30.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.203.4033.33%31.20%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Famalicão (Local): 50.21%; Gil Vicente (Visit): 21.00%; Draw: 28.79%. For Gil Vicente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.05%EV -5.11%E -2.70%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.98%EV +1.44%E +0.299%K +0.377%G +0.005%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.97%EV -4.12%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 19:15
Bovada🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.47%EV -6.62%E -3.56%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.19%EV -2.34%E -0.502%K -0.640%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.34%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 19:25
BetUS🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.47%EV -6.62%E -3.56%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.19%EV -2.34%E -0.502%K -0.640%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.34%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 19:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.63%EV -9.63%E -5.35%K -12.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -3.39%E -0.736%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 19:15
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -3.39%E -0.736%K -0.941%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 19:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.83%EV -4.61%E -2.43%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.04%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.83%EV -4.61%E -2.43%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.04%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 19:20
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-30 18:40
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -6.12%E -3.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 19:10
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -6.12%E -3.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 18:45
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 18:50
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 18:55
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.12%E -3.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 18:50
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.04%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -5.49%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -9.31%E -2.95%K -4.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 19:25
GTbets🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.56%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.48I 22.32%NM 21.13%EV -5.91%E -1.32%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.31%EV -7.00%E -2.17%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.89%EV -6.12%E -3.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.96%EV -6.54%E -1.47%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 19:20
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.24%EV -4.61%E -2.43%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.07%EV -2.11%E -0.620%K -0.879%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.08%EV -5.61%E -2.99%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 18:50
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -5.61%E -2.99%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.31%E -2.95%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 19:20
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -5.61%E -2.99%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.31%E -2.95%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 19:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 19:15
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.63%E -4.54%K -6.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 19:05
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.63%E -4.54%K -6.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 19:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.63%E -4.54%K -6.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -13.63%E -4.54%K -6.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 19:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.54%EV -10.63%E -5.97%K -13.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 19:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.62%EV -13.14%E -7.60%K -18.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.30%EV -7.59%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.08%EV -8.44%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 19:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.08%EV -12.14%E -6.94%K -16.19%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.55%EV -8.64%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -9.31%E -2.95%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 19:04
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -9.06%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -2.11%E -0.620%K -0.879%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 19:05
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -9.06%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 19:23
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%EV -9.63%E -5.35%K -12.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -9.06%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -7.87%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 19:25
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.68%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -9.06%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 18:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.12%E -3.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -9.69%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 18:40
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -10.74%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 19:15
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -10.74%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 19:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -10.74%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 19:15
Bally Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -10.74%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 19:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -10.74%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 19:15
betPARX🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -10.74%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 19:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.83%EV -6.12%E -3.27%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -10.74%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 19:00
Bet Right🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.97%EV -6.62%E -3.56%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -10.74%E -2.53%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -4.99%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 18:55
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -11.79%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.17%EV -8.63%E -4.74%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -11.79%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.43%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.06%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -13.89%E -3.39%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -9.31%E -2.95%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 19:15
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.06%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -13.89%E -3.39%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -9.31%E -2.95%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 19:15
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.06%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -13.89%E -3.39%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -9.31%E -2.95%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 19:15
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.33%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -13.89%E -3.39%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.66%EV -9.31%E -2.95%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 19:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.33%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -13.89%E -3.39%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.66%EV -9.31%E -2.95%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 19:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.33%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -13.89%E -3.39%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.66%EV -9.31%E -2.95%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 19:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.74%EV -9.63%E -5.35%K -12.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -13.89%E -3.39%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -9.31%E -2.95%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.99%E -4.00%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 19:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.99%E -4.00%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 19:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.99%E -4.00%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.75%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 19:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 48.89%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.75%3.35I 29.85%NM 30.36%-1.7%2026-08-30 19:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.47%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-08-30 19:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.47%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-08-30 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.25%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55%1.0%2026-08-30 19:25
Matchbook1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-08-30 19:25
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-08-30 19:25