La escuela de los momios

Famalicão v Arouca

Inicio: 2026-03-06 20:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Famalicão (Local)

Predicción 57.02%1.75momio equitativo
EV -3.07%
Ventaja -1.81%
Kelly -4.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.03%56.94%57.06%58.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.581.651.651.7063.29%60.57%60.61%58.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Arouca (Visitante)

Predicción 18.41%5.43momio equitativo
EV +4.55%
Ventaja +0.801%
Kelly +0.973%
Crecimiento +0.044%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.09%18.47%18.34%19.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.504.975.005.6822.22%20.11%20.00%17.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.58%4.07momio equitativo
EV -1.69%
Ventaja -0.422%
Kelly -0.563%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.89%24.58%24.60%26.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.743.754.0030.30%26.72%26.67%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.67I 59.88%NM 58.14%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.68I 17.61%NM 17.09%EV +4.55%E +0.801%K +0.973%G +0.044%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.77%EV -3.66%E -0.933%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-06 20:06
Pinnacle1.67I 59.88%NM 57.81%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.62%EV +0.870%E +0.159%K +0.194%G +0.002%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.57%EV -3.41%E -0.868%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-06 20:10
Bovada1.62I 61.73%NM 58.02%EV -7.64%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.57%EV -1.52%E -0.285%K -0.350%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.41%EV -5.38%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 20:11
BetUS1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -7.06%E -4.33%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV -2.44%E -0.461%K -0.568%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -5.38%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 20:05
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -8.78%E -5.48%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -2.44%E -0.461%K -0.568%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -4.15%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-06 19:45
GTbets1.65I 60.61%NM 57.29%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000%5.28I 18.94%NM 17.90%EV -2.81%E -0.532%K -0.657%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.81%EV -6.36%E -1.67%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-06 20:10
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.33%EV -3.64%E -2.16%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.45%EV -3.36%E -0.641%K -0.791%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%EV -1.69%E -0.422%K -0.563%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-06 19:35
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.33%EV -3.64%E -2.16%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.45%EV -3.36%E -0.641%K -0.791%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%EV -1.69%E -0.422%K -0.563%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-06 19:34
Coolbet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV -3.36%E -0.641%K -0.791%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -1.69%E -0.422%K -0.563%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-06 20:10
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -3.36%E -0.641%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-06 20:05
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -3.36%E -0.641%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-06 20:05
Bet Right1.63I 61.35%NM 57.30%EV -7.06%E -4.33%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -3.36%E -0.641%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 20:10
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.64%EV -7.64%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -3.36%E -0.641%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 20:10
Betr (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.64%EV -7.64%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -3.36%E -0.641%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 20:10
PointsBet (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.64%EV -7.64%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -3.36%E -0.641%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 20:10
Everygame1.62I 61.73%NM 57.45%EV -7.64%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -3.36%E -0.641%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-06 19:40
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -7.64%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -4.28%E -0.824%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 19:36
Betclic (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.63%EV -4.21%E -2.51%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -6.12%E -1.20%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.71%EV -5.38%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 19:39
Marathon Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.19%EV -7.06%E -4.33%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -6.12%E -1.20%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 20:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 20:05
DraftKings1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -4.15%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 19:35
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 18:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 18:45
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 19:35
BetMGM1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 20:05
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 19:35
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -7.64%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-06 20:10
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -8.78%E -5.48%K -14.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-06 19:38
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -8.21%E -5.10%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-06 20:05
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -8.21%E -5.10%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-06 20:05
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -8.21%E -5.10%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-06 20:06
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -4.21%E -2.51%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -8.89%E -1.80%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-06 20:10
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -4.21%E -2.51%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -8.89%E -1.80%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-06 20:10
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -7.64%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -9.81%E -2.00%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-06 19:35
NetBet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 56.97%EV -9.92%E -6.28%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.37%EV -9.81%E -2.00%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.66%EV -10.29%E -2.82%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-06 20:10
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 55.99%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.05%EV -10.73%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-06 20:10
Svenska Spel1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -3.07%E -1.81%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -11.65%E -2.43%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 19:55
ATG (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -3.07%E -1.81%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -11.65%E -2.43%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 19:55
Grosvenor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.07%E -1.81%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -12.57%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:56
Casumo1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.07%E -1.81%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -12.57%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:55
betPARX1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.07%E -1.81%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -12.57%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:55
Bally Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -3.07%E -1.81%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -12.57%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 19:55
BetRivers1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -4.21%E -2.51%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -12.57%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-06 19:55
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -4.21%E -2.51%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -12.57%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -9.06%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-06 19:55
Sky Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.13%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -12.57%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -6.60%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 18:15
Betway1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -12.57%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-06 19:35
BoyleSports1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -8.78%E -5.48%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -12.57%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-06 19:40
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.04%EV -5.35%E -3.23%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -5.38%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-06 19:40
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.16%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -10.29%E -2.82%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-06 19:55
Unibet (NL)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.16%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -10.29%E -2.82%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-06 19:55
Unibet (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.16%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -10.29%E -2.82%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-06 19:55
LiveScore Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.31%EV -5.35%E -3.23%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -10.29%E -2.82%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-06 19:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.31%EV -5.35%E -3.23%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -10.29%E -2.82%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-06 19:55
Parions Sport (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-06 19:50
Virgin Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.03%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -15.33%E -3.33%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.22%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-06 19:55
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.05%EV -7.64%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -15.33%E -3.33%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -7.83%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-06 19:36
LeoVegas1.63I 61.35%NM 55.34%EV -7.06%E -4.33%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -15.33%E -3.33%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-06 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.03%EV -7.64%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.45%EV -17.17%E -3.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -18.89%E -5.73%K -8.21%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-06 18:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.92%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.30%0.4%2026-03-06 20:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.92%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.30%0.4%2026-03-06 20:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.24%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.29%0.4%2026-03-06 20:11
Matchbook1.71I 58.48%NM 58.24%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.29%0.4%2026-03-06 20:11
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 57.67%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%2.0%2026-03-06 20:10