Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estoril v Rio Ave FC

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 17:00 UTC

Final: Estoril 0–2 Rio Ave FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estoril (Local)

Prediction 46.00%2.17fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.78%46.07%45.97%49.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.992.002.1254.64%50.35%50.00%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rio Ave FC (Visit)

Prediction 26.99%3.70fair odd
EV +3.93%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.054%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.39%26.87%27.02%27.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.503.8530.30%28.41%28.57%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.01%3.70fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -0.772%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.91%27.06%27.01%28.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.443.403.6030.30%29.11%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estoril (Local): 46.00%; Rio Ave FC (Visit): 26.99%; Draw: 27.01%. For Rio Ave FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.16%EV -12.14%E -6.36%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV +3.93%E +1.02%K +1.38%G +0.054%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-19 06:34
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.16%EV -12.14%E -6.36%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV +3.93%E +1.02%K +1.38%G +0.054%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-19 06:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.16%EV -12.14%E -6.36%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV +3.93%E +1.02%K +1.38%G +0.054%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-19 06:34
betPARX🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.16%EV -12.14%E -6.36%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV +3.93%E +1.02%K +1.38%G +0.054%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-19 06:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.16%EV -12.14%E -6.36%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV +3.93%E +1.02%K +1.38%G +0.054%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-19 06:39
Bally Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.16%EV -12.14%E -6.36%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV +3.93%E +1.02%K +1.38%G +0.054%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-19 06:39
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -14.90%E -8.05%K -17.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -0.119%E -0.032%K -0.044%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-19 06:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -14.90%E -8.05%K -17.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -0.119%E -0.032%K -0.044%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-19 06:29
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -14.90%E -8.05%K -17.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -0.119%E -0.032%K -0.044%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-19 06:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -15.82%E -8.65%K -19.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -1.47%E -0.402%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.53%E -2.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-19 06:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -15.82%E -8.65%K -19.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -1.47%E -0.402%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.53%E -2.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-19 06:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -15.82%E -8.65%K -19.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -1.47%E -0.402%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.53%E -2.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-19 06:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -15.82%E -8.65%K -19.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -1.47%E -0.402%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.53%E -2.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-19 06:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -15.82%E -8.65%K -19.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -1.47%E -0.402%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.53%E -2.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-19 06:34
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -15.82%E -8.65%K -19.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -1.47%E -0.402%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.53%E -2.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-19 06:34
GTbets🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.46%EV -8.46%E -4.25%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.09%EV -2.28%E -0.630%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.45%EV -3.59%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 12:59
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -3.40%E -1.62%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.77%EV -2.55%E -0.706%K -0.977%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-22 13:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -2.82%E -0.783%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 11:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -12.60%E -6.63%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -2.82%E -0.783%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 11:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.19%EV -9.84%E -5.02%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.84%EV -3.36%E -0.938%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.97%EV -7.37%E -2.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 11:15
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.40%E -1.62%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 12:59
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -2.78%E -0.772%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 13:05
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 12:57
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 14:09
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 14:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 14:05
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.12%EV -6.62%E -3.26%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 14:05
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 14:45
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.94%EV -6.62%E -3.26%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.95%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.11%EV -7.10%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 14:44
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.87%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 14:25
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -4.32%E -2.08%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -6.87%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 13:05
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -4.32%E -2.08%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -6.87%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 13:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -2.48%E -1.17%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-22 15:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -2.48%E -1.17%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-22 15:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -2.78%E -0.772%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 13:05
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -2.78%E -0.772%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:54
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -2.78%E -0.772%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 14:04
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 12:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 12:59
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 12:58
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 13:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 13:05
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -9.53%E -2.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 13:05
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 13:45
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.70%E -2.78%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 13:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.45%EV -9.84%E -5.02%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 11:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -10.30%E -5.28%K -10.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-22 14:59
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 13:05
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 12:39
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 12:39
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.00%E -4.00%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 13:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.15%EV -10.76%E -5.55%K -11.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -9.53%E -2.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-22 11:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.20%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%1.2%2026-08-22 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.20%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%1.2%2026-08-22 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.20%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%1.2%2026-08-22 15:15
Smarkets2.12I 47.17%NM 46.59%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.34%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.06%1.2%2026-08-22 15:05
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 45.85%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.64%1.9%2026-08-22 15:20
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.1%2026-08-22 14:30