Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estoril v Arouca

Kickoff: 2026-09-07 19:17 UTC

Final: Estoril 0–0 Arouca

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estoril (Local)

Prediction 38.77%2.58fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.908%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.10%38.82%38.81%41.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.392.402.5246.08%41.76%41.67%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arouca (Visit)

Prediction 33.64%2.97fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.491%
Kelly -0.746%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.17%33.67%33.58%35.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.742.752.9338.46%36.47%36.36%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.59%3.62fair odd
EV -0.688%
Edge -0.191%
Kelly -0.265%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.02%27.51%27.61%28.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.403.6031.25%29.76%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estoril (Local): 38.77%; Arouca (Visit): 33.64%; Draw: 27.59%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -0.688%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.33%EV -2.29%E -0.908%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.42%EV -2.78%E -0.963%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.24%EV -5.65%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-07 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.33%EV -2.29%E -0.908%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.42%EV -2.78%E -0.963%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.24%EV -5.65%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-07 18:55
Pinnacle🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.54%EV -2.68%E -1.07%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.01%EV -1.44%E -0.491%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.45%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-07 19:10
GTbets🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.37%EV -2.68%E -1.07%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.13%EV -10.18%E -3.81%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.50%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 18:55
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -3.06%E -1.23%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -3.06%E -1.23%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -10.86%E -4.10%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 18:55
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -3.06%E -1.23%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -10.86%E -4.10%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -3.06%E -1.23%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.39%EV -11.53%E -4.38%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-07 18:50
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -3.06%E -1.23%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.39%EV -11.53%E -4.38%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-07 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -3.06%E -1.23%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -11.87%E -4.53%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 18:50
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -3.06%E -1.23%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -10.34%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-07 19:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -3.84%E -1.55%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.07%EV -7.83%E -2.86%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 19:14
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.76%EV -5.00%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -4.13%E -1.45%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 19:05
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -5.00%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.13%E -1.45%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 18:59
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -5.00%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.13%E -1.45%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 19:13
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -5.78%E -2.38%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.49%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 19:10
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -5.78%E -2.38%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.49%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 19:10
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -5.78%E -2.38%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.49%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 19:10
Bally Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -5.78%E -2.38%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.49%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 19:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -5.78%E -2.38%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.49%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -5.78%E -2.38%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.49%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 19:10
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.16%EV -6.17%E -2.55%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -5.81%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -11.72%E -3.66%K -5.33%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 18:55
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.16%EV -6.17%E -2.55%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -5.81%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -11.72%E -3.66%K -5.33%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 19:15
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.49%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -3.45%E -0.985%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -5.81%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-07 18:55
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -5.81%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-07 19:00
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.49%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-07 19:15
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -4.13%E -1.45%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -10.34%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-07 19:00
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -5.81%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -10.34%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 19:00
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -5.81%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -10.34%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 19:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -5.81%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -10.34%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 19:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -5.81%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -10.34%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 19:14
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.49%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -5.81%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -11.72%E -3.66%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 19:05
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-07 18:54
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-07 18:58
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.60%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90%EV -2.45%E -0.844%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -0.688%E -0.191%K -0.265%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.13%E -1.45%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -3.45%E -0.985%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 19:10
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.49%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 19:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.48%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -10.86%E -4.10%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 19:10
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.48%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -10.86%E -4.10%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 19:10
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.38%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69%EV -12.54%E -4.82%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -7.58%E -2.26%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-07 17:05
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.58%EV -9.66%E -4.14%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.18%EV -11.53%E -4.38%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-07 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.58%EV -9.66%E -4.14%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.18%EV -11.53%E -4.38%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-07 19:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.58%EV -9.66%E -4.14%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.18%EV -11.53%E -4.38%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-07 19:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.86%EV -10.04%E -4.33%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -10.34%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-07 19:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.68%EV -10.04%E -4.33%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -11.53%E -4.38%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.19%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.68%EV -10.04%E -4.33%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -11.53%E -4.38%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.19%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.68%EV -10.04%E -4.33%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -11.53%E -4.38%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.19%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 19:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.13%E -1.45%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.45%E -0.985%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 19:05
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -4.13%E -1.45%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 19:05
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.81%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-07 19:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -10.86%E -4.10%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -3.45%E -0.985%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 19:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -9.18%E -3.40%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-07 18:55
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -12.54%E -4.82%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 19:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -14.70%E -6.68%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -7.49%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -8.96%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-07 18:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.07%EV -15.86%E -7.31%K -13.55%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.17%EV -6.82%E -2.46%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.76%EV -8.14%E -2.44%K -3.49%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-07 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 38.00%2.94I 34.01%NM 34.00%3.57I 28.01%NM 28.00%0.0%2026-09-07 19:15
Matchbook2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.22%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%0.3%2026-09-07 19:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.98%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.17%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.85%0.5%2026-09-07 19:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.98%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.17%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.85%0.5%2026-09-07 19:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.98%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.17%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.85%0.5%2026-09-07 19:15
Smarkets2.62I 38.17%NM 37.90%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-09-07 19:15