L’École des cotes

CF Estrela v Casa Pia

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-20 20:15 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

CF Estrela (Local)

Prévision 36.56%2.74cote équitable
EV -0.915%
Avantage -0.338%
Kelly -0.535%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.71

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.56%36.65%36.64%39.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.502.502.7143.48%39.95%40.00%36.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Casa Pia (Visiteur)

Prévision 32.59%3.07cote équitable
EV -0.595%
Avantage -0.195%
Kelly -0.290%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.82%32.53%32.49%33.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.632.892.883.0538.02%34.62%34.72%32.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 30.85%3.24cote équitable
EV -1.29%
Avantage -0.404%
Kelly -0.588%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.64%30.82%30.86%32.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.703.043.073.2037.04%32.88%32.57%31.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.71I 36.90%NM 35.74%EV -0.915%E -0.338%K -0.535%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.72%EV -3.53%E -1.19%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.55%EV -5.30%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 20:10
1xBet2.70I 37.04%NM 35.94%EV -1.28%E -0.474%K -0.754%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.56%EV -2.88%E -0.965%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.50%EV -5.00%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-20 20:05
LowVig.ag2.65I 37.74%NM 36.26%EV -3.11%E -1.17%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.71%EV -6.54%E -2.16%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-20 19:55
BetOnline.ag2.65I 37.74%NM 36.26%EV -3.11%E -1.17%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.71%EV -6.54%E -2.16%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-20 19:55
BetUS2.64I 37.88%NM 35.57%EV -3.47%E -1.32%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -6.14%E -2.13%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -9.01%E -3.05%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 20:05
Bovada2.62I 38.17%NM 35.82%EV -4.21%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.81%EV -9.01%E -3.05%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 20:03
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.61%EV -4.21%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.08%EV -8.09%E -2.87%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.31%EV -8.08%E -2.71%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 20:09
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.61%EV -4.21%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.08%EV -8.09%E -2.87%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.31%EV -8.08%E -2.71%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 20:05
Marathon Bet2.61I 38.31%NM 35.75%EV -4.57%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.14%E -2.13%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.85%EV -9.62%E -3.28%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 20:10
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-20 19:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 19:50
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 19:49
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 19:49
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 19:49
Everygame2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 20:09
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 19:55
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -10.37%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-20 20:09
Betclic (FR)2.57I 38.91%NM 37.03%EV -6.03%E -2.35%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -3.85%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 19:54
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.37%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -1.29%E -0.404%K -0.588%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-20 20:04
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 36.83%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 19:49
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 19:44
Tipico (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 20:09
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 19:50
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.52%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.44%EV -6.46%E -2.25%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.04%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-20 19:45
GTbets2.53I 39.53%NM 37.26%EV -7.50%E -2.96%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.53%EV -2.55%E -0.853%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -6.85%E -2.27%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 16:05
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 19:55
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 19:49
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 20:10
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 20:09
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 19:45
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -6.14%E -2.13%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 19:30
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.37%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-20 19:50
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.37%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-20 19:54
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 20:04
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 20:04
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 20:05
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 20:05
NetBet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.18%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.52%EV -11.47%E -4.00%K -6.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-20 20:09
Parions Sport (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -10.42%E -4.25%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 19:55
PMU (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -10.42%E -4.25%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-20 19:45
Svenska Spel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -12.25%E -5.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -0.595%E -0.195%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 19:50
ATG (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -12.25%E -5.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -0.595%E -0.195%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 19:49
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -12.25%E -5.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.70%EV -12.25%E -5.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.57%EV -14.28%E -5.43%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.73%EV -16.72%E -6.19%K -9.83%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-20 20:00
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:45
Casumo2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:45
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:50
BetRivers2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:49
betPARX2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:45
Bally Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:45
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -14.08%E -5.99%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 19:50
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -14.08%E -5.99%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 19:45
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -14.08%E -5.99%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -14.08%E -5.99%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.85%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 19:49
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -14.08%E -5.99%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.85%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 19:30
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.26%EV -15.17%E -6.54%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -3.85%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-20 19:49
LeoVegas2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -15.91%E -6.92%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-20 19:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-03-20 20:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-03-20 20:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-03-20 20:05
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-03-20 20:10
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.12%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60%2.1%2026-03-20 20:05
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 35.94%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.03%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.03%3.0%2026-03-20 20:05