La escuela de los momios

CF Estrela v Casa Pia

Inicio: 2026-03-20 20:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

CF Estrela (Local)

Predicción 36.56%2.74momio equitativo
EV -0.915%
Ventaja -0.338%
Kelly -0.535%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.56%36.65%36.64%39.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.502.502.7143.48%39.95%40.00%36.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Casa Pia (Visitante)

Predicción 32.59%3.07momio equitativo
EV -0.595%
Ventaja -0.195%
Kelly -0.290%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.82%32.53%32.49%33.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.892.883.0538.02%34.62%34.72%32.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.85%3.24momio equitativo
EV -1.29%
Ventaja -0.404%
Kelly -0.588%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.64%30.82%30.86%32.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.703.043.073.2037.04%32.88%32.57%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.71I 36.90%NM 35.74%EV -0.915%E -0.338%K -0.535%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.72%EV -3.53%E -1.19%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.55%EV -5.30%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 20:10
1xBet2.70I 37.04%NM 35.94%EV -1.28%E -0.474%K -0.754%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.56%EV -2.88%E -0.965%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.50%EV -5.00%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-20 20:05
LowVig.ag2.65I 37.74%NM 36.26%EV -3.11%E -1.17%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.71%EV -6.54%E -2.16%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-20 19:55
BetOnline.ag2.65I 37.74%NM 36.26%EV -3.11%E -1.17%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.71%EV -6.54%E -2.16%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-20 19:55
BetUS2.64I 37.88%NM 35.57%EV -3.47%E -1.32%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -6.14%E -2.13%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -9.01%E -3.05%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 20:05
Bovada2.62I 38.17%NM 35.82%EV -4.21%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.81%EV -9.01%E -3.05%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 20:03
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.61%EV -4.21%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.08%EV -8.09%E -2.87%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.31%EV -8.08%E -2.71%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 20:09
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.61%EV -4.21%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.08%EV -8.09%E -2.87%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.31%EV -8.08%E -2.71%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 20:05
Marathon Bet2.61I 38.31%NM 35.75%EV -4.57%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.14%E -2.13%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.85%EV -9.62%E -3.28%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 20:10
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-20 19:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 19:50
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 19:49
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 19:49
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-20 19:49
Everygame2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 20:09
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 19:55
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -10.37%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-20 20:09
Betclic (FR)2.57I 38.91%NM 37.03%EV -6.03%E -2.35%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -3.85%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 19:54
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.37%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -1.29%E -0.404%K -0.588%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-20 20:04
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 36.83%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 19:49
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 19:44
Tipico (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 20:09
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 19:50
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.52%EV -6.77%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.44%EV -6.46%E -2.25%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.04%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-20 19:45
GTbets2.53I 39.53%NM 37.26%EV -7.50%E -2.96%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.53%EV -2.55%E -0.853%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -6.85%E -2.27%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 16:05
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 19:55
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 19:49
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 20:10
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -7.11%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 20:09
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 19:45
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -6.14%E -2.13%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 19:30
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.37%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-20 19:50
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.37%E -3.77%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-20 19:54
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 20:04
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 20:04
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 20:05
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 20:05
NetBet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.18%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.52%EV -11.47%E -4.00%K -6.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-20 20:09
Parions Sport (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -10.42%E -4.25%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 19:55
PMU (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -10.42%E -4.25%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-20 19:45
Svenska Spel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -12.25%E -5.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -0.595%E -0.195%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 19:50
ATG (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -12.25%E -5.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -0.595%E -0.195%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 19:49
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -12.25%E -5.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -8.74%E -3.12%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.70%EV -12.25%E -5.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.57%EV -14.28%E -5.43%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.73%EV -16.72%E -6.19%K -9.83%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-20 20:00
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:45
Casumo2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:45
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:50
BetRivers2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:49
betPARX2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:45
Bally Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -12.98%E -5.45%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 19:45
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -14.08%E -5.99%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 19:50
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -14.08%E -5.99%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 19:45
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -14.08%E -5.99%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -2.22%E -0.741%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-20 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -14.08%E -5.99%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.85%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 19:49
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -14.08%E -5.99%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.85%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 19:30
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.26%EV -15.17%E -6.54%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -3.85%E -1.31%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-20 19:49
LeoVegas2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -15.91%E -6.92%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -5.48%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-20 19:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-03-20 20:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-03-20 20:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-03-20 20:05
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-03-20 20:10
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.12%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60%2.1%2026-03-20 20:05
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 35.94%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.03%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.03%3.0%2026-03-20 20:05