Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 16.00
assuming max odds 1.23
assuming max odds 8.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Casa Pia (Local): 6.86%; FC Porto (Visit): 79.19%; Draw: 13.96%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.17. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.64%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.29%EV -9.73%E -8.53%K -69.48%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV +11.64%E +1.46%K +1.66%G +0.194% | 7.9% | 2026-09-12 16:06 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -10.52%E -9.31%K -80.91%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +4.66%E +0.622%K +0.717%G +0.033% | 9.5% | 2026-09-12 16:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.95%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.84%EV +1.17%E +0.162%K +0.188%G +0.002% | 7.4% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 15.81I 6.33%NM 6.07%EV +8.43%E +0.533%K +0.569%G +0.048% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.62%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 7.21I 13.87%NM 13.31%EV +0.617%E +0.086%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 16:46 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV +9.73%E +0.608%K +0.649%G +0.063% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.20%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV +0.477%E +0.066%K +0.077%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 16:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.43%EV -0.559%E -0.039%K -0.041%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.43%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.14%EV -0.918%E -0.129%K -0.151%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 16:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -3.99%E -0.285%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -6.56%E -5.56%K -36.44%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 16:21 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 16:46 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 16:46 |
| Betway🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -6.56%E -5.56%K -36.44%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 16:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -9.73%E -8.53%K -69.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-12 14:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%EV -3.99%E -0.285%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.51%EV -10.52%E -9.31%K -80.91%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-12 16:46 |
| BetUS🎯 | 12.75I 7.84%NM 7.37%EV -12.56%E -0.985%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.00%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.62%EV -3.71%E -0.538%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 16:51 |
| GTbets🎯 | 12.21I 8.19%NM 7.86%EV -16.26%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.99%EV -2.60%E -2.11%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 6.78I 14.75%NM 14.15%EV -5.38%E -0.794%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 16:51 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.95%EV +9.73%E +0.608%K +0.649%G +0.063% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.96%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.10%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 16:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -14.27%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.51%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 14:41 |
| Neds🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 14:41 |
| Bovada🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV -3.99%E -0.285%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.56%EV -7.35%E -6.28%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -24.56%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.29%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-12 16:21 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +9.73%E +0.608%K +0.649%G +0.063% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.53%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 16:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 16:06 |
| betPARX🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 16:06 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 16:06 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 16:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -6.56%E -5.56%K -36.44%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-12 16:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.57%EV -27.99%E -2.67%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.58%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.85%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-12 16:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.48%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.72%EV -9.73%E -8.53%K -69.48%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-12 16:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.45%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.37%EV -9.73%E -8.53%K -69.48%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.18%EV -12.08%E -1.92%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-12 16:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.04%EV -7.35%E -6.28%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.80%EV -12.78%E -2.04%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +9.73%E +0.608%K +0.649%G +0.063% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.06%EV -7.35%E -6.28%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.16%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-12 16:06 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.16%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-12 16:06 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.16%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-12 16:06 |
| Unibet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 16:06 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 16:06 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-12 16:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -6.56%E -5.56%K -36.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.55%EV -7.35%E -6.28%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.84%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-12 16:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.84%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-12 16:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -24.56%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.35%EV -7.35%E -6.28%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.53%EV -19.76%E -3.44%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-12 16:33 |
| Betsson🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV +9.73%E +0.608%K +0.649%G +0.063% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.93%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -20.46%E -3.59%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-12 16:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.68% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10% | 0.8% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.68% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10% | 0.8% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.68% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10% | 0.8% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.36% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.56% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.08% | 0.9% | 2026-09-12 16:46 |
| Smarkets◎ | 19.49I 5.13%NM 5.06% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.91% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03% | 1.4% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.84% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.43% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.73% | 2.3% | 2026-09-12 16:41 |