Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

Casa Pia v FC Porto

Inizio: 2026-09-12 17:01 UTC

Finale: Casa Pia 1–4 FC Porto

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

57 bookmaker (20 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

Casa Pia (Casa)

Previsione 6.86%14.58quota equa
EV +9.73%
Vantaggio +0.608%
Kelly +0.649%
Crescita +0.063%

ipotizzando la quota massima 16.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
5.78%6.88%7.01%8.57%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
10.5013.7413.0016.009.52%7.28%7.69%6.25%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

FC Porto (Trasferta)

Previsione 79.19%1.26quota equa
EV -2.60%
Vantaggio -2.11%
Kelly -11.31%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.23

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
76.35%79.08%79.07%81.29%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.131.181.181.2388.50%85.10%84.75%81.30%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 13.96%7.17quota equa
EV +11.64%
Vantaggio +1.46%
Kelly +1.66%
Crescita +0.194%

ipotizzando la quota massima 8.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
11.58%14.04%13.92%16.27%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
5.706.576.508.0017.54%15.21%15.38%12.50%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Alle ultime quote prima dell’inizio, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stimava per Testa a testa: Casa Pia (Casa): 6.86%; FC Porto (Trasferta): 79.19%; Pareggio: 13.96%. Per Pareggio, questa stima equivaleva a una quota decimale equa di 7.17. 5 bookmaker offrivano quote di chiusura superiori a tale livello; la migliore era 8.00, corrispondente a un valore atteso positivo del +11.64%.

Quote dei bookmaker (57 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggio ▼MargineAggiornamento
Sky Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.29%EV -9.73%E -8.53%K -69.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV +11.64%E +1.46%K +1.66%G +0.194%7.9%2026-09-12 16:06
FanDuel🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -10.52%E -9.31%K -80.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +4.66%E +0.622%K +0.717%G +0.033%9.5%2026-09-12 16:04
SportsBet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.95%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.84%EV +1.17%E +0.162%K +0.188%G +0.002%7.4%2026-09-12 16:05
Pinnacle🎯15.81I 6.33%NM 6.07%EV +8.43%E +0.533%K +0.569%G +0.048%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.62%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%7.21I 13.87%NM 13.31%EV +0.617%E +0.086%K +0.099%G +0.001%4.2%2026-09-12 16:46
Tipico (DE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV +9.73%E +0.608%K +0.649%G +0.063%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.20%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV +0.477%E +0.066%K +0.077%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯14.50I 6.90%NM 6.43%EV -0.559%E -0.039%K -0.041%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.43%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.14%EV -0.918%E -0.129%K -0.151%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 16:55
Coral🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 14:40
DraftKings🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 16:30
Fanatics🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -3.99%E -0.285%K -0.307%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -6.56%E -5.56%K -36.44%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 16:21
LowVig.ag🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 16:46
BetOnline.ag🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 16:46
Betway🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -6.56%E -5.56%K -36.44%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 16:54
Paddy Power🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -9.73%E -8.53%K -69.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 14:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%EV -3.99%E -0.285%K -0.307%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.51%EV -10.52%E -9.31%K -80.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -2.31%E -0.331%K -0.386%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 16:46
BetUS🎯12.75I 7.84%NM 7.37%EV -12.56%E -0.985%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.00%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.62%EV -3.71%E -0.538%K -0.629%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:51
GTbets🎯12.21I 8.19%NM 7.86%EV -16.26%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.99%EV -2.60%E -2.11%K -11.31%G +0.000%6.78I 14.75%NM 14.15%EV -5.38%E -0.794%K -0.931%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 16:51
Coolbet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.95%EV +9.73%E +0.608%K +0.649%G +0.063%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.96%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.10%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 16:04
BetMGM🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -14.27%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.51%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:41
Neds🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:41
Bovada🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV -3.99%E -0.285%K -0.307%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.56%EV -7.35%E -6.28%K -43.24%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -24.56%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.29%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -5.80%E -0.860%K -1.01%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-12 16:21
Betr (AU)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +9.73%E +0.608%K +0.649%G +0.063%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.53%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 16:10
Grosvenor🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 16:05
Virgin Bet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 16:05
Casumo🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 16:06
betPARX🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 16:05
Bally Bet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 16:06
ATG (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 16:05
Svenska Spel🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 16:06
Unibet (UK)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.21%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 16:00
888sport🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:55
William Hill🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -4.98%E -4.15%K -24.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:55
BoyleSports🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -6.56%E -5.56%K -36.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 16:40
Winamax (FR)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.57%EV -27.99%E -2.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.58%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.85%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 16:20
NetBet (FR)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.48%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 78.72%EV -9.73%E -8.53%K -69.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-12 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.45%EV -17.70%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 78.37%EV -9.73%E -8.53%K -69.48%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.18%EV -12.08%E -1.92%K -2.28%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-12 16:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.04%EV -7.35%E -6.28%K -43.24%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.80%EV -12.78%E -2.04%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 16:05
NordicBet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +9.73%E +0.608%K +0.649%G +0.063%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.06%EV -7.35%E -6.28%K -43.24%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 16:55
PMU (FR)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.16%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:06
BetRivers🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.16%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:06
TABtouch🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.16%EV -8.14%E -7.02%K -50.90%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.86%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:06
Unibet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 16:05
Unibet (NL)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 16:06
LeoVegas (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 16:05
Unibet (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -10.85%E -0.834%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 16:06
PlayUp🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 16:45
Bet Right🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -6.56%E -5.56%K -36.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 16:05
betfred_uk🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.55%EV -7.35%E -6.28%K -43.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 16:05
betano_uk🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.84%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:40
Bet Victor🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%EV +2.87%E +0.191%K +0.205%G +0.006%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.84%EV -8.94%E -7.77%K -59.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:44
Betclic (FR)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -24.56%E -2.23%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.35%EV -7.35%E -6.28%K -43.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.53%EV -19.76%E -3.44%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-12 16:33
Betsson🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV +9.73%E +0.608%K +0.649%G +0.063%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.93%EV -5.77%E -4.85%K -30.36%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -20.46%E -3.59%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 16:20
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.68%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%0.8%2026-09-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.68%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%0.8%2026-09-12 16:55
Matchbook◎19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.68%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%0.8%2026-09-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎18.50I 5.41%NM 5.36%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.56%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.08%0.9%2026-09-12 16:46
Smarkets◎19.49I 5.13%NM 5.06%1.19I 84.03%NM 82.91%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%1.4%2026-09-12 16:55
Kalshi◎14.29I 7.00%NM 6.84%1.20I 83.33%NM 81.43%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.73%2.3%2026-09-12 16:41