L’École des cotes

Casa Pia v Braga

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-23 18:00 UTC

Score final : Casa Pia 0–1 Braga

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Casa Pia (Local)

Prévision 16.56%6.04cote équitable
EV +1.00%
Avantage +0.164%
Kelly +0.197%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 6.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.33%16.63%16.56%18.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.905.645.706.1020.41%17.73%17.54%16.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Braga (Visiteur)

Prévision 59.06%1.69cote équitable
EV -3.73%
Avantage -2.29%
Kelly -5.92%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.63

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
56.37%58.94%59.08%60.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.501.571.571.6366.67%63.53%63.69%61.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.38%4.10cote équitable
EV -1.74%
Avantage -0.432%
Kelly -0.575%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.03

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.03%24.42%24.36%26.20%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.803.804.0330.30%26.34%26.32%24.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV +1.00%E +0.164%K +0.197%G +0.002%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.21%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 17:50
ATG (SE)6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV +1.00%E +0.164%K +0.197%G +0.002%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.21%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 17:50
Coolbet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -5.50%E -3.44%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 17:54
Casumo6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 17:49
Grosvenor6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 17:49
betPARX6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 17:50
Bally Bet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 17:49
TABtouch6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -8.46%E -5.46%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 17:50
BetRivers6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -8.46%E -5.46%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 17:49
Unibet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -9.05%E -5.87%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 17:49
Unibet (NL)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -9.05%E -5.87%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 17:49
Unibet (SE)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -9.05%E -5.87%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -9.64%E -6.30%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 17:49
LiveScore Bet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -9.64%E -6.30%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 17:49
FanDuel5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -2.31%E -0.391%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.93%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 17:49
1xBet5.89I 16.98%NM 16.46%EV -2.47%E -0.420%K -0.506%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.48%EV -3.73%E -2.29%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.06%EV -1.74%E -0.432%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 17:54
Pinnacle5.87I 17.04%NM 16.44%EV -2.81%E -0.478%K -0.576%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.56%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.00%EV -1.99%E -0.494%K -0.657%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-23 17:55
LowVig.ag5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -3.96%E -0.683%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.46%EV -6.09%E -3.83%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 17:20
BetOnline.ag5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -3.96%E -0.683%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.46%EV -6.09%E -3.83%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 17:24
Virgin Bet5.80I 17.24%NM 15.67%EV -3.96%E -0.683%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.78%EV -10.23%E -6.73%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.56%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 17:50
LeoVegas5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV -3.96%E -0.683%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.10%EV -11.41%E -7.61%K -22.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-23 17:50
DraftKings5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.07%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.39%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 17:44
Everygame5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.65%EV -5.50%E -3.44%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 17:19
Unibet (UK)5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.15%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 17:49
Betr (AU)5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.15%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 17:50
Bet Right5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 17:50
PointsBet (AU)5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 17:50
Tipico (DE)5.70I 17.54%NM 16.39%EV -5.62%E -0.986%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -8.46%E -5.46%K -15.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -2.47%E -0.618%K -0.824%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 17:25
Unibet (FR)5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV -5.62%E -0.986%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 17:39
Bovada5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -7.28%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.11%EV -6.09%E -3.83%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 17:44
Betclic (FR)5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV -7.28%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.19%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.10%EV -5.40%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 17:39
Marathon Bet5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -7.28%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.05%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -6.37%E -1.66%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 17:25
GTbets5.56I 17.99%NM 16.97%EV -7.94%E -1.43%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.59%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.44%EV -5.89%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 16:20
Coral5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.26%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 17:19
Ladbrokes (UK)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.26%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 17:19
Sky Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -2.47%E -0.618%K -0.824%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 17:50
BetMGM5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 17:20
SportsBet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 17:30
PlayUp5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 17:25
Betway5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 17:54
Paddy Power5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 17:24
BetUS5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -9.64%E -6.30%K -18.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -2.47%E -0.618%K -0.824%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 17:50
betfred_uk5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 17:50
BoyleSports5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 17:19
Bet Victor5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 17:49
Neds5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -10.59%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.74%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -10.59%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.74%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 17:20
Betsson5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -10.59%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 17:25
NordicBet5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -10.59%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 17:25
NetBet (FR)5.40I 18.52%NM 16.81%EV -10.59%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -9.64%E -6.30%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 17:55
Winamax (DE)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -13.90%E -2.67%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.14%EV -9.05%E -5.87%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 17:40
William Hill5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -17.21%E -3.44%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 16:34
888sport5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -17.21%E -3.44%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 16:35
Mr Green (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -17.21%E -3.44%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 16:34
888sport (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -17.21%E -3.44%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 16:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 17.29%EV -17.21%E -3.44%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.51%EV -9.64%E -6.30%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.20%EV -19.54%E -5.92%K -8.50%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-23 17:50
Winamax (FR)4.90I 20.41%NM 17.89%EV -18.87%E -3.85%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.43%EV -11.41%E -7.61%K -22.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.69%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-23 17:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook6.40I 15.63%NM 15.56%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.73%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.71%0.4%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.28%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%0.5%2026-04-23 17:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-04-23 17:55
Smarkets6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%1.5%2026-04-23 17:45
Kalshi6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.84%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49%2.1%2026-04-23 17:30